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Predictions 30th May - 3rd June System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, May 21, 2020.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    There’s alignment of a major signal for the SE, 30th May.

    Reasonable confidence at this stage IMO, due to the size LWT node. It’s big and if we see any further shift in AAO indices, I think we may be looking at a season starter.

    EC:

    GFS:
     
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Due to the elongation of the Long Wave pattern (Sou-Africa to the Pacific) the troughing South of Aus is likely to remain in subsistence, but could mean it's a quick pass for us in the SE.
     
  3. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    EPS looks better this morning:

    The alignment finally looks like a system on it’s own, like the deterministic models are flirting with.

    But like I’ve said all along, if this happens below, it’s not gonna be great. EC Determ isn’t trending well either.
     
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  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Least not forget we're still in that autumnal model variability where climatic modelling struggles at best.
     
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  5. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS will keep falling all over the shop, but AAO trend with EC begins to be a little bit of a worry. Something to watch.
     
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  6. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Seeing this hurts. This is the exact date range that you guys helped me to plan my proposal to my now fiance at Falls Creek last year. We were booked to go up again this year to celebrate, for obvious reasons we aren't any more.

    Sorry for OT. :crap:
     
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  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    18z GFS showing how quick this system may sweep our region with an unfavourable peak in WA with a breaking wave in the Bight.
    Stunningly solid though.
    Oodles of time to ridge through WA which is where I think it’s heading ATM.

    Anomalously large Westerly/Zonal stretch!
     
  8. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Looks sensational on the approach to sw wa on this morning gfs!! Like suggested, could be a wa peaker and we just get the leftovers here in the south east?
     
  9. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Typically you don’t get such a strong WA peaker, and then a decent system through the SE like that.
     
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  10. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Yep. Be interesting to see how it plays out and what the whole scenario looks like in 5-6 days time jb
     
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  11. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS going all guns blazing with a two-pronged system:
     
  12. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Massive clipper.:rolleyes:

    [​IMG]
     
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    *IYO

    Try the trailing follow-up.
     
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  14. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    ECMWF
    [​IMG]

    I wonder what the latest ECMWF will render, and if the LWT node will hold up
     
    #14 7wombathead, May 21, 2020
    Last edited: May 21, 2020
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    An imminent ridge but it’s still there.
    Hanging in there.
     
  16. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    I am watching with interest. The present system has not done much in terms of snow falling.
     
  17. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Im feeling some potential consolidation with this one. Advection looks a tad understated to me but i could be wrong.
     
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  18. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    I think it’s going to be a wa peak system imo
    The only way I can see anything hitting the south east is if that system slides across to us(vic) and paves a path for a secondary sling shot front up the back side of it. IMO
     
  19. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    The blocking high to east is a brick wall.
     
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  20. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    I so hope I’m wrong by the way because it looks like a cracking cold blast when it comes up at wa!!
    But we’ve all witnessed it so many times before where the fronts come up for a look, but then the high spoils the party and ridges the front out
     
  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    An IO ridge is our friend here.
    WA has a lot of weather to get through over the next week so consider it a very fluid scenario @ 10 days out.
     
  22. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Just to clarify. The conversation was about the low on the bom 4 day not beyond.
     
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  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 18z upscaling in a big way - 18z hopecast puts snow on the 'nong & Macedon ranges.
    We seek trend now.
    [​IMG]
     
  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  25. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  26. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  27. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    That’s pricked the old ears up!!
    522 thickness brushing vic coast = close to snow on beach type event imo
     
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  28. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    for tassie, perhaps.

    50-100cm range for the Alps, per that single GFS run.
     
  29. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pretty damn decent for a month in advance. provided something actually happens here.
     
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  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC bolstering support with an upgrade, in-line with GFS.
     
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  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    18Z GFS beating the drum this AM.
    Trend is 90% there on GFS.
     
  32. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    If EC holds over the next day or two, we have a system mapped out. 10 days out. Still a long road for the models to stay on track.

    But it would mean that the period of poor autumn model verification is being put behind us.
     
  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sub 8-11ºC temps in the Alps for the 2 Jun, on GFS this AM.
     
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  34. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    Looking the bona fide season starter on paper.
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The Canuck weighing in on support also, with a classic winter outbreak throughout the SE.
     
  36. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    This looks real nice....
     
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  37. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    I’m going To sit back and enjoy looking at these cracking charts while they last lol
     
  38. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    A solid base in early June. That would be something new for me. Cant wait for the optimal solar angles of June.
     
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  39. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    I mean this isn’t really new, it happened last year didn’t it?
     
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  40. teleroo

    teleroo Ignored Member Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, then followed by "Astro's abomination" remember?
     
  41. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Fickleness of June. Natural bases tend to be hard to get properly started in early June.
     
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  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Can't help but feel our May is 'our June' this year.
    The Winter pattern emerged about 3-4 weeks ago.
     
  43. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    The anom as-per ncep starts rolling in then amplifys going into the 1st.

    Uppers heights amon
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    ........................................................................................................................................................................................................

    Lower level mslp anom
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  44. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Nah Not Really I am talking over 1 m base at Spencers Creek. There would have been almost 50 cm early May 2020.

    Last year, Spencers Creek In Mid June 2019 was 32 cm (@snowy hydro)

    https://www.snowyhydro.com.au/generation/live-data/snow-depths/
    Target year 1960. 216 CM at Spencers at 17th June 1960

    That was 60 years ago.
     
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  45. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 00z has weakened the first wave on the 30th (the WA/SA peaker) over SE Australia.

    That wasn't unexpected, but still serves to clear the way for what is behind it. Still snow on the peaks ATM as a bonus.
     
  46. walrusballs

    walrusballs Hard Yards

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    Anyone care to predict snow or no snow around Oberon next weekend?
     
  47. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  48. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    CMC 00z looks pretty impressive:
     
  49. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Heights still looked vgood on the OOzGFS. Be chilly south westerlies. Hope the model keeps holding serve.
     
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  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think at this stage, it has a fair chance at the moment.
     
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