There’s alignment of a major signal for the SE, 30th May. Reasonable confidence at this stage IMO, due to the size LWT node. It’s big and if we see any further shift in AAO indices, I think we may be looking at a season starter. EC: GFS:
Due to the elongation of the Long Wave pattern (Sou-Africa to the Pacific) the troughing South of Aus is likely to remain in subsistence, but could mean it's a quick pass for us in the SE.
EPS looks better this morning: The alignment finally looks like a system on it’s own, like the deterministic models are flirting with. But like I’ve said all along, if this happens below, it’s not gonna be great. EC Determ isn’t trending well either.
Least not forget we're still in that autumnal model variability where climatic modelling struggles at best.
GFS will keep falling all over the shop, but AAO trend with EC begins to be a little bit of a worry. Something to watch.
Seeing this hurts. This is the exact date range that you guys helped me to plan my proposal to my now fiance at Falls Creek last year. We were booked to go up again this year to celebrate, for obvious reasons we aren't any more. Sorry for OT.
18z GFS showing how quick this system may sweep our region with an unfavourable peak in WA with a breaking wave in the Bight. Stunningly solid though. Oodles of time to ridge through WA which is where I think it’s heading ATM. Anomalously large Westerly/Zonal stretch!
Looks sensational on the approach to sw wa on this morning gfs!! Like suggested, could be a wa peaker and we just get the leftovers here in the south east?
Yep. Be interesting to see how it plays out and what the whole scenario looks like in 5-6 days time jb
Im feeling some potential consolidation with this one. Advection looks a tad understated to me but i could be wrong.
I think it’s going to be a wa peak system imo The only way I can see anything hitting the south east is if that system slides across to us(vic) and paves a path for a secondary sling shot front up the back side of it. IMO
I so hope I’m wrong by the way because it looks like a cracking cold blast when it comes up at wa!! But we’ve all witnessed it so many times before where the fronts come up for a look, but then the high spoils the party and ridges the front out
An IO ridge is our friend here. WA has a lot of weather to get through over the next week so consider it a very fluid scenario @ 10 days out.
GFS 18z upscaling in a big way - 18z hopecast puts snow on the 'nong & Macedon ranges. We seek trend now.
That’s pricked the old ears up!! 522 thickness brushing vic coast = close to snow on beach type event imo
If EC holds over the next day or two, we have a system mapped out. 10 days out. Still a long road for the models to stay on track. But it would mean that the period of poor autumn model verification is being put behind us.
A solid base in early June. That would be something new for me. Cant wait for the optimal solar angles of June.
The anom as-per ncep starts rolling in then amplifys going into the 1st. Uppers heights amon ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ Lower level mslp anom
Nah Not Really I am talking over 1 m base at Spencers Creek. There would have been almost 50 cm early May 2020. Last year, Spencers Creek In Mid June 2019 was 32 cm (@snowy hydro) https://www.snowyhydro.com.au/generation/live-data/snow-depths/ Target year 1960. 216 CM at Spencers at 17th June 1960 That was 60 years ago.
GFS 00z has weakened the first wave on the 30th (the WA/SA peaker) over SE Australia. That wasn't unexpected, but still serves to clear the way for what is behind it. Still snow on the peaks ATM as a bonus.
Heights still looked vgood on the OOzGFS. Be chilly south westerlies. Hope the model keeps holding serve.
