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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, May 21, 2020.
18z GFS’ SWly vibe looks nice. Deep cold ready made for Buller and the Southern resorts.
OCF precip forecast atm.
00Z ICON thinks deepening trough.
Lays the egg.
Was @ the end of run next frames would have been interesting with that 989mb LP
We'd be blessed if we saw the low round-out NW of Tas.
Good amount of instab & upper level vort in this run.
12z JMA was good too.
Powder plots with those heights if they verify.
GEM is building upon its run yesterday, with a very solid upper level setup and Southern Tassie low:
Talking about 40-70cm for the resorts here.
Sounds like the models just had to chew the fat of that massive Ex Manga TC over the weekend.
Bom are getting interested (Hotham):
Ms. Bunn's excitable automated modelling is still forecasting a skiable amount of snow. Hot Ham does not open until 22/6/20 so even 10-15 cms is entry fee free chook footing on June 2nd.The Dargo High Plains road could be skiable and still open then too. We shall calm the farm and wait until Saturday and see what is coming our way grasshopper.
I like this. When BOM get on board you know there could be some skiing .
EC is not greatly interested....
That ridge pushing from up north, rather than from the west.
The water is becoming very cold here in VIC. I will switch to mainly planks soon.
GFS Total Snowfall - Monday
18z Monday 1st June - Totals
I will settle for 10-15 cm at 1650 M.in the Hot ham area.
The German model looks stunning this evening. Plays into former scenarios of late-last week. The Canadian, not too dissimilar.
Good progression through the run. Classic winter system.
"Utah, get me two!"
BOM are on board for some proper snow at Baw Baw, Mt. Stirling and Hot Ham
Favouring an OCF outcome IMO. Models not even close to aligned. Will change.
The roller coaster continues
If u can pow, u might as well share the charts for a laugh
I will wait for the graziers warning on this one although there have been a few good'uns that bounced around a bit until very late on.
I got a feeling this system might deliver a late surprise.
@stormkite2000 posted the above post #103
Four day rule for sure on this system, specially how she’s been so all over the shop of late
EC going for a fat arse High on the 2nd.
Ms. Bunn's modelling now looks like grass skiing is back.
It is leaping about. 30+cms this morning and now just 6 cms.
These two are connected if you're not aware?
Yes, I can see the high pressure system is not the friend of the person who wants a second ice age for XC skiing ;-P.
EC modelling and Jane's automated forecast
You referring to me or MrT?
It’s been pointed out numerous times but ‘Rock hopping’ is all one sees.
If I start frothing about a possible snowfall, then I put the kiss of death on it and then it becomes just rocks and no hopping at all :-(
The roller coaster continues on gfs, with it being pretty much being ridged out this morning
EC agrees but holding on
4 day rule to confirm the ridge out?
Lol probably mc.
Frontal system on EC looks ok.
The Canadian looks good.
I'll go flip a coin. Heads or tails?
Dat is a decent fetch. Access goin all GFS on us!
Access go home you are drunk
I'll buy Access another drink. And pass the pipe.
NCEP ensembles look ok.
17cms according Ms. Bunn's automated modelling .This prediction will change by dinner time ;-P .I live in hope that Tuesday June 2nd will be still possible for some rock hopping at JB plain to Paw Paw Plain.
The front on the ec as stated above by pow Today at 8:05 AM.
Cold pool behind the front off west tassie.
12z cold spreading over vic.
GFS 18z still very cold working over lower se vic, and nsw east coast with the sharp cold snap.
@ T EC snow forecast
00z OCF precip forecast.
BOM are still backing some snow on June 1st.
00z GFS looked v good with a cold pool cutting off in the embedded low pressure in the head.
Mister T in the immortal words of William Shakespeare , " You doth froth too much"