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Predictions 30th May - 3rd June System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, May 21, 2020.

  1. bondibob

    bondibob One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Always a good reminder not to ride the models to much at this time of year. Things ebb and flow on each run. It’s all about validation and alignment by the models.

    Might just be me but seems the models are performing slightly better this year it picking “something” at longer range. Just an observation so maybe wrong thread.
     
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  2. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    GEFS ENS - JMA 1.25 Operational


    Blended is compelling imo.
     
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  3. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bom still hanging in there:
    (Hotham)
     
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  4. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC looking much improved this afternoon:
     
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  5. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Canadian models still pick of the model however:


    More emphasis (particularly on GFS & EC) on cold, rather than moisture.
    Looking at 15-30cm ATM IMO.
     
  6. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    I frotheth too much but I am going up to Hot Ham and JB plain on Tuesday with XC ski gear and wheel chains etc. in the car based on the hunch that BOM have it right.
     
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  7. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-hotham
    Ms Bunn still holding up the 17 cm forecast for Hot Ham. The 4 day rule says Thursday night will be the time to wax the planks or not.
     
  8. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Yep canuck run was cold. Mid winter looking plot.





    Uppers match what ens blend run post with airmass.
     
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  9. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    How cold is cold? What sort of snow level we talking atm?
     
  10. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I have some good feels re this...
     
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  11. Ramshead

    Ramshead One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Me too. After looking mega, then meh, it appears to be levelling out as a decent system. Not quite a season starter perhaps but a 20-30cm ish system at mid elevations
     
  12. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    EC 00Z run clearly shifted to GFS past few runs.


    Breaking atmospheric wave
     
    #162 stormkite2000, May 26, 2020
    Last edited: May 26, 2020
  13. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    I like the moving graphics.
     
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  14. Swiss

    Swiss One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is it just me?
     
  15. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    It could be enough to XC ski on but with no real base at all , being at the right place at the right time the after the main snow fall occurs is the key.
     
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  16. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Don't think anyone atm really can put a number on totals. Most are likey estimating off OCF. Its a good starting place tho.....

    As it gets nearer the pow jelly ketter cc donzah crew will fine tune the cm's. As they mostly always do and do exceptionally well.
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The German Model has been a stayer here. Good breaking wave as @stormkite2000 highlights above on EC.
    Matchy match IMO.

    [​IMG]
     
  18. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    A little bit of wind and snow if Meteye is to be believed.



     
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  19. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still quite a bit of divergence on totals between the models (as to be expected):


    but averaged around that 15-30cm range between them.
     
  20. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    EC is showing favourable downstream shear instability on the 1st.
     
  21. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  22. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    ................ and shiny things ?LOL
     
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  23. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Not sure about Donzah ........... has been a little on the negative side in outlook just judging by the posts I have seen for a little while now. Normally a little conservative I grant you ...........................but recently ......................
     
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  24. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Whats this don zah...
     
  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 06z showing reasonable alignment with EC 00z. Albeit with a robust frontal follow-up, sneaking in front of the ridge on the 2nd June. Even the curtain-raiser on the 31st is showing as snow above 1600m
    A very good addition if it were to verify.
     
  26. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO this has a bit of truck and trailer feel about.
    Gut feel is a mild clipper.. Then a Westerly belt.
    Followed up by a stronger system.
    EC has been playing around with the scenario for a bit..
     
  27. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Depends on the ridge behind, looks pretty squishy.
     
  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Slow moving E Rossby Wave has the upper hand in our region. Ridging is inferior & malleable IMO, a good reason why we're bucking the AAO trend right now.
    @stormkite2000 may wish to confirm

    NCEP MJO discussion issued today:
     
  29. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Needs some inland troughing ...
    Though sometimes that first front can just stall the ridge enough that the stronger front can push on.
    I've just got a feeling
     
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  30. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Ensemble output could be a tad conservative imo.
     
  31. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    That does look like it’s pushing out of the region before June, however:
     
  32. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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  33. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Healthy little upgrades for snowfall on EC (& GFS):
     
  34. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah the trends are on the upswing. Which is nice at this point out.
     
  35. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-hotham
    Ms Bunn's automated modelling now predicts 20cms at 1650 M. (JB Plain ) near Hot Ham and Dinner Plain this Monday . I am packing my bags and waxing my planks today for a XC ski day on Tuesday next week!.
     
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  36. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    Squished out on EC - or am I missing something?

     
  37. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    36hr old model run you've got there.
     
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  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeh Nah, EC looks good for a 20-30cm system, on face value IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
  39. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    pressure pretty high. not sure about the upper end of that spectrum.
     
  40. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    Touche
     
  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Circa 1008hPa at the passing of the front, not too much of a concern IMO.

    EC Ensembles 01 JUN

    EC Ensembles 02 JUN
     
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  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  43. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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  44. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    No Prefrontal.
    Foot storm for MR.
    IMO
     
  45. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    for @mr or the Main range or perhaps both ? ;-P
     
  46. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Are we locking this in then?

    A 988 Bass straight low pressure is pretty dam good
    [​IMG]
     
  47. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    3hr rainfall rate mm thinks nasa hires forecasting model. looks stormy on paper as
    the front moves over.
     
  48. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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  49. Snowmaker7

    Snowmaker7 One of Us

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    Is Jane Bunn's automated forecast sourced directly from yr.no (EC's) forecast? They look very similar

    Downgrade on GFS 18z, I can't recall an event last year where there has been this much variance run to run on each model, albeit it is still 6 days away
     
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  50. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes. Jane is Norwegian
     
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