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Predictions 30th May - 3rd June System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, May 21, 2020.

  1. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I am by no means anywhere near an expert, but don't models always struggle to get a guess around this time of year? For the last three years on this forum, it has been discussed that this period is notoriously un-reliable. Isnt it until the 2/3 system that out models are more accurate.a Me thinks we may need to wait at least 2 more days for some alignment begins to become more clear IMO.

    Looking at the BOM interactive maps (I believe to be ACCESS but I really dont know) there is huge variation between runs and huge movement of cold fronts.
    I also have little recollection of 1016 Low fronts, Seems like everything is struggling to make up it's mind at the moment
     
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  2. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Stay on Topic.
     
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  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Certainly looking cold on GFS & Ec this arvo.
    Snow down as low as 900m briefly in Vic.
     
  5. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    Windy (EC) going for snow CT's (OP) on Tuesday morning.

    Not a favourable direction for Blackheath area but maybe if the cells are strong enough to make it across the valley?

    Experts will have better idea on specifics than me

     
  6. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    The XC thing?
     
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  7. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bom holding (Hotham).
     
  8. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    EPS Precip Spread has settled down nicely. Shear instability has aligned to the desired path considerably.
     
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  9. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    This is looking good but tomorrow will be 4 days away from the event .The 4 day rule must apply even if I do frotheth far too much .
     
  10. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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  11. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    GFS showing some nice Vapor advection at the lower DG Zone coinciding with adiabatic lift :thumbs:
     
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  12. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Gfs this arvo has sharpened itself up considerably compared to days past imo
    528 thickness licks/ or gets very close to the southern central coast of vic on the latest run.
     
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  13. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nice and cold on EC....


    Still a 15-30cm system IMO.
     
  14. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Tassey looks like it’s got a pool of 525 thickness over parts of it!
    Snow to 3-400m not out of the question Imo
     
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  15. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  16. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-hotham
    Ms. Bunn's modelling has increased the predicted amount of snowfall that may occur at 1650 M. in the Hot Ham area to 25 cm on June 1st 2020.
    At 1450M. i.e. Dinner Plain /Precipice Plain the same or thereabouts in centimetres of snow (at 1450 M.) is being forecasted.

    I am liking this !
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC bringing the biff with the frontal passage. Front hitting Vic resorts as early as mid-morning Monday.
    Strong Relative Vorticity (@500mb) will see to some very heavy falls with the front.
     
  18. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    All that bow wave moisture will be snow as well.
    Like this.
     
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  19. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    This has some really decent NW moisture profiles.
     
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Frontal band is packed to the gunnels.
    Well above DGZs.
     
  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    My favourite tool on Windy, EC Soundings (albeit without adiabatics).:woohoo:
     
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  22. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    What you thinking for CT's?
     
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  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    CT's look to have a chance of snow above 1100m along the Oberon Plateau Monday night IMO.
    Enough to settle? Maybe a few centimeters IMO.
     
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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    There's more than enough cold air to see some brief falls even below this but it looks to really dry out by around 11pm Monday night.
     
  25. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Be good to see what happens/how/if this system keeps evolving or just stays about what it is now until it comes through
     
  26. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I see these, I get they're really handy, I have no idea what they actually mean. Please enlighten us?
     
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    y-Axis = Height (AMSL + small index of pressure height).
    x-Axis = temp index ºC

    Red trace line is dry-bulb atmospheric temp
    Blue trace line is Dew Point
    Wind on Secondary y-axis.
    Basically just a dumbed down skew-t or atmos profile.
     
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  28. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    thanks.
     
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  29. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Gfs looks like it’s held up pretty much the same as yesterday.
    At this stage a solid cold snap for southern vic and also southern Nsw imo
     
  30. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC (via Jane) suggesting some prefrontal for Hotham @ 1650m followed by 15cm
     
  31. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Pow - looks like the piggyback front that u we’re talking about a couple of day back might go underneath us and looks to smack nz
     
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  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Like recent systems, I reckon we may see some gain above 1600m on Sunday for Vic.
    Easily enough ingredients to make pie.
     
  33. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Actually Ms. Bunn's modelling now suggests a further dusting of 2 cm overnight into Tuesday morning at Hot Ham.

    [MOD NOTE: Post edited - Predictions and weather discussion only]
     
    #233 Mister Tee on XC Skis, May 28, 2020
    Last edited: May 28, 2020
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  34. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  35. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bom have upped their lower end (50% prob) on the 1st. Looking like its well and truley locked in.
     
  36. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    00z GFS run. 500/700mb uppers temps. 700mb humidity.





    If the humidity in the parcel verifys current cm's forecasts maybe likely a tad under-cooked atm.

    Its a pretty much track the progress in realtime now on satellite.
     
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  37. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    As far as short duration systems go. This is one of the better ones IMO.
    Will be quite the sight when she hits the alps.
     
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  38. Cam Slee

    Cam Slee One of Us

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    But what part of the Alps is that? Vic or NSW.
     
  39. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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  40. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  41. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Location:
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    Monday morning looks exciting
    (Hotham)


    Down to ~800m in areas on Monday night in VIC, 900m elsewhere over the night.
     
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  42. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Stacked atmospheric moisture.
     
  43. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sorry. Hotham.
     
  44. Cam Slee

    Cam Slee One of Us

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    My favourite mountain. I live 1 1/2 hours away. Just down the road, Tawonga South, Mt Beauty.
     
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  45. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Do u expect this snow level to change much jb? Or pretty much stay about what it is now
     
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  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lock it in eddy.
    20-30cm. Most of which will fall Monday midday-4pm IMO.
    Fair chance Vic will see the cream of the crop. Snow down the 900m in Vic, 1000m in NSW snowies.

    Oberon Plateau and parts of the CT's (incl Oberon) should see snow to 1100m, Monday 10pm-midnight IMO.
    2-3cm accumulation.

    EC Monday Hotham 3pm:
     
  47. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    00Z EC's cold snap progression on the run. Animation not running on my end atm.



     
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  48. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Got a bit of snow in strange places about it.
     
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  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sure does this morning.
    Meandering cold pool puts Northern Tablelands with a shot, including Barrington tops etc.

    Still has a 20-30cm gain, not ideal for Vic though.
     
  50. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    half at best for Vicco I reckon.
     
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