Predictions 30th May - 3rd June System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, May 21, 2020.

  1. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    10,971
    Likes Received:
    15,962
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Certainly has dropped snow totals (a little sudden) all round:

    but the snow gets to go further north.
     
    SnowBound, Snowy Joey, Gregah and 2 others like this.
  2. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2010
    Messages:
    1,104
    Likes Received:
    642
    System has turned ugly quickly for vicco. Very volatile changes all throughout the lead up to this system lol
    One for nsw imo
     
  3. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2016
    Messages:
    2,201
    Likes Received:
    16,682
    I don’t think it’s ever good for the ski fields when the snow heads to the North up the tablelands.
     
    snowgum, Karicta, Gregah and 4 others like this.
  4. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    20,376
    Likes Received:
    22,729
    Location:
    South Co
    seasons in transition.
    therefore modelling same.
     
    Gregah, SMSkier and doogasnow like this.
  5. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2010
    Messages:
    1,104
    Likes Received:
    642
    Yep, usually takes up until nearly July to fully settle down imo
     
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,916
    Likes Received:
    27,233
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    UKMET, JMA & The Canadian still backing the frontal scenario, so work that out...


     
    SMSkier and doogasnow like this.
  7. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2010
    Messages:
    1,104
    Likes Received:
    642
    I’ve stopped trying pow :cry: lol
    I’ve got no idea how to read this system and neither do the models by the look of it
     
  8. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2015
    Messages:
    7,459
    Likes Received:
    6,857
    Location:
    Melbourne
  9. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    75,355
    Likes Received:
    58,582
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    stop hopecasting. it's tiresome.
     
  10. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,812
    Likes Received:
    3,855
    Location:
    Gerroa
    I’m working on my first doomcast. That should clear the seasonal gloom.
     
  11. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,887
    Likes Received:
    1,556
    Location:
    South
    It still weather that won't make fire.

    10 to 20 cm is still on the cards. Maybe wont make a base, but where there is a base (MR) it will be super good.
    [MOD NOTE: *IMO]

    [​IMG]
     
  12. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Messages:
    710
    Likes Received:
    2,044
    looking over the ec ens run. The jma solution on the their last run looks likely the most chance to verify to me.



     
  13. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2003
    Messages:
    11,709
    Likes Received:
    6,835
    Location:
    Elwood
    Amen sister
     
    Edgecrusher, Outlooker and Swiss like this.
  14. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    38,782
    Likes Received:
    39,616
    Location:
    woonona
    I've still got some good vibes about this.
    It has the potential to bring the low through Bass Strait..Rather than cutoff and over SA, western Victoria.
     
    skiflat, stormkite2000 and doogasnow like this.
  15. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 15, 2002
    Messages:
    20,647
    Likes Received:
    13,837
    Location:
    Top drawer
    @Mufts
     
    Mufts and mick chopps like this.
  16. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Messages:
    710
    Likes Received:
    2,044
    Yeah agree thats on the table.

     
    Donzah likes this.
  17. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 10, 2019
    Messages:
    1,100
    Likes Received:
    1,876
    Location:
    Warrandyte, VIC
  18. sdsdc

    sdsdc Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 20, 2010
    Messages:
    261
    Likes Received:
    21
    and calling Hotham hot ham.
     
    coldsmoker, phillthy and SamP like this.
  19. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    38,782
    Likes Received:
    39,616
    Location:
    woonona
  20. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2011
    Messages:
    6,480
    Likes Received:
    4,497
    Hmmm starts with ****
    2nd front brings snow
    Finishes with ****

    ????
     
  21. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    38,782
    Likes Received:
    39,616
    Location:
    woonona
    Rain? nah not much tbh
     
    stormkite2000 and POW_hungry like this.
  22. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2003
    Messages:
    18,006
    Likes Received:
    10,965
    Location:
    melbourne
    looks like an ok hotham NW system to me
     
  23. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2010
    Messages:
    1,104
    Likes Received:
    642
    There might be life in the piggy back yet lol
     
  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,916
    Likes Received:
    27,233
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    GFS has settled on something inbetweeen this mornings run.
    Looks largely back on track.
    I am still a big fan of this system. Nicely stacked, good cold pool on target.

    Looking forward to Monday IMO.
     
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    120,557
    Likes Received:
    64,936
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
  26. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2016
    Messages:
    446
    Likes Received:
    831
    Bom have backed off a fair bit (for Hotham). Temps (particularly for Monday) are marginal. Forecast looks a bit NQR to me.
     
  27. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2016
    Messages:
    446
    Likes Received:
    831
    Bom have backed off a fair bit (for Hotham). Temps (particularly for Monday) are marginal. Forecast looks a bit NQR to me.
     
  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,916
    Likes Received:
    27,233
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    EC has that cold pool slingshot up through Western Vic which is a right ball-ache for any substantial snowfall on the alps.

    The big problem is, it’s now backed by The Canadian and ICON.
    That and a Tassie shadow.
     
    Gregah and Claude Cat like this.
  29. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Messages:
    710
    Likes Received:
    2,044


    Weatherzone synoptic chart is there about with most ens with the low.
    EC mean had a cluster in the strait. Guess we see how this pans over the weekend.
     
    SMSkier, POW_hungry and Donzah like this.
  30. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2015
    Messages:
    7,459
    Likes Received:
    6,857
    Location:
    Melbourne
    :-0
     
  31. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2015
    Messages:
    7,459
    Likes Received:
    6,857
    Location:
    Melbourne
  32. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,887
    Likes Received:
    1,556
    Location:
    South
    SnowBound likes this.
  33. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,887
    Likes Received:
    1,556
    Location:
    South
    BAcked on 4 day chart
    [​IMG]

    LOOKS PROMISING
     
  34. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Messages:
    710
    Likes Received:
    2,044
    Head of the first front.





     
    DiscoStuAU, SMSkier, Donzah and 2 others like this.
  35. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    38,782
    Likes Received:
    39,616
    Location:
    woonona
     
  36. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 12, 2000
    Messages:
    78,215
    Likes Received:
    47,999
    Location:
    Les Hautes Montagnes
    Obs thread? It's pretty windy in Melb
     
  37. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2015
    Messages:
    7,459
    Likes Received:
    6,857
    Location:
    Melbourne
    NEXT 7 DAYS
    Mt Buller: 6cm
    Mt Hotham: 8cm
    Falls Creek: 0cm
    Mt Baw Baw: 8cm
    Perisher: 13cm
    Thredbo: 17cm
    Charlotte Pass: 23cm
    Selwyn: 6cm
    Lake Mountain: 8cm
    Mt Stirling: 7cm
    Ben Lomond: 2cm
    Mt Mawson: 6cm

    A major revision of predicted snowfall totals for Monday and Tuesday this week from Ms Bunn's automated modelling as Sat. May 30th . Not much to froth about :-(. However there is another low pressure weather system approaching us on Sunday week which is of interest to snow lovers and surfers alike.
     
  38. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2007
    Messages:
    1,568
    Likes Received:
    1,698
    Location:
    Northern Beaches, Sydney
    I know it's been said already but man that cold pool gets slung pretty far North by Monday PM/Tuesday AM (GFS)

    Northern Tablelands in for a rude shock to the system...

     
    doogasnow and Donzah like this.
  39. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2010
    Messages:
    1,104
    Likes Received:
    642
    Gfs not real appealing on this arvo update imo (for gippsland area anyway)
     
  40. JustCantStop

    JustCantStop Addicted

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2001
    Messages:
    297
    Likes Received:
    114
    Location:
    Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
    Almost no precipitation forecast for Melbourne now.... eek.
     
    Mister Tee on XC Skis likes this.
  41. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Messages:
    710
    Likes Received:
    2,044
    GEFS ENS - JMA 1.25° Operational Last run still was not going on a total walk-about like the others. Don't cutoff from the south.





















    Still looking a low confidence forecast with the wandering cold pool so far nth i think.
     
    #291 stormkite2000, May 30, 2020
    Last edited: May 30, 2020
  42. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    38,782
    Likes Received:
    39,616
    Location:
    woonona
    EC looks epic
     
    rocketboy likes this.
  43. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    38,782
    Likes Received:
    39,616
    Location:
    woonona
  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,916
    Likes Received:
    27,233
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Yeah that tightening NW quadrant of that low looks fun.
    Hope it stays in the prog.
     
    Donzah and SMSkier like this.
  45. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2007
    Messages:
    1,568
    Likes Received:
    1,698
    Location:
    Northern Beaches, Sydney
    SW Vic gonna be hit head on if this verifies...

     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,916
    Likes Received:
    27,233
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    That's that NW quadrant. ;)
     
  47. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    10,971
    Likes Received:
    15,962
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Snow down to ~600-700m in some areas in Western & Northern Victoria, per the EC run:


    Snow in strange places....
     
  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,916
    Likes Received:
    27,233
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    DiscoStuAU, TheFake, CarveMan and 7 others like this.
  49. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2007
    Messages:
    1,568
    Likes Received:
    1,698
    Location:
    Northern Beaches, Sydney
    Was about to say - snap
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  50. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2007
    Messages:
    1,568
    Likes Received:
    1,698
    Location:
    Northern Beaches, Sydney
    Couple of cm's possible for OP Monday night?