Predictions 30th May - 3rd June System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, May 21, 2020.

  1. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm going on a snow chase crookwell region Tues Am
     
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  2. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    IMO this is going to catch a lot of people off guard being such a mild weekend
     
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  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Easily possible.
    Northern Tablelands a decent shot too if moisture makes it that far north.
     
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  4. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    So possibly snow around trentham/Daylesford ect out western vic?
    I think there elevation is around 6-700m?
     
  5. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    We’ll sit and wait.
     
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  6. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    This system has become a late surprise, although it was also possible the way the models were flipping and flopping from the beginning.
    Just a shame there's not more moisture involved.
     
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  7. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    Make sure you got that fireplace roaring for Tuesday morning mate.

    Snow possible up your way 10pm-12am Monday PM IMO

    EDIT: Post pics on Tuesday morning please ;)
     
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep. Down to 750m at times Monday Central District IMO.
     
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  9. Humphrey

    Humphrey First Runs

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    I will be possibly doing a snow chase on the OP .
    Will decide tomorrow !
     
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  10. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    00Z EC Ens mean












    Control run.

     
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  11. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    I promise to behave myself, (Sir Frothalot that I am ) as best I can .I am curious about the low pressure weather system that seems to be on the horizon on June 7-10th.
     
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  12. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Ms.Bunn's automated weather modelling for
    That Mountain whose name that might resemble warm sliced cured pork if spelled a certain way with a gap in it
    ;-P
    is looking more positive in terms of snow predicted to fall.
    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-hotham
    15cm+ on Monday :)
     
    #312 Mister Tee on XC Skis, May 30, 2020
    Last edited: May 30, 2020
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  13. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bass strait shooter.
     
  14. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Look at the Grampians for Western Vic. with 1000 M.+ elevations.
     
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  15. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    BOM seem to be keen again about some colder temperatures and some snow for Hotham.
    I will go up there on Tuesday and see for myself if it is XC skiable.

    Sunday 31 May
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -1
    Max 1
    Snow showers. Wind easing.
    Possible rainfall: 4 to 10 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 50 to 60 km/h decreasing to 35 to 50 km/h early in the morning.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]


    Summary
    Monday June 1st
    [​IMG]
    Min -2
    Max 0
    Snow showers.
    Possible rainfall: 4 to 10 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 30 to 35 km/h decreasing to 20 to 25 km/h in the morning then becoming north to northwesterly and light in the early afternoon.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Tuesday 2 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -3
    Max 1
    Snow shower or two.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
    Chance of any rain: 70% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. High (70%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the morning. Winds southerly 20 to 25 km/h tending southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h during the morning.
     
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  16. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks pretty lame on yr.no this morning as it did last night. Is this a late bloomer or a slow fade?
     
  17. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Fair ole upgrade from EC/YR for my location.
    Note the temp dip @ 1600hrs! :cool::cool:
     
  18. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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  19. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    I just can’t see(off this type of system) that baw baw gets 30cm of snow??imo
    Hope they do tho and I’m proven wrong
     
  20. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Sometimes Baw Baw does get the goods because of its position so far south and so vertical straight up from the Gippsland plains. Therefore cold weather systems that usually give Tasmania good snow also benefit Baw Baw and MSG and miss other ski locations.
    BOM are back on board with this system and predicting sub zero temperatures and snow above 1300 m. at Hotham and elsewhere.
    http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/mounthotham.shtml

    http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/mountbawbaw.shtml

    We shall wait and see what the snow cameras show us at 4 pm tomorrow.
    Keep Tuesday free for XC skiing just in case.

    :)
     
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  21. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah the first front comes in during the early hours of the morning for Melbourne. Buller at around 6-7am Monday, and the Main Range from ~9am. That should last a few hours.

    We could then see a burst from the SW potentially towards the Southern resorts hitting Buller at about ~5pm and continuing into the evening, with snowfall also occurring into the evening in lesser quantities further north up the ranges.



    With the addition of this potential Monday evening SW burst, we could see a little over 30cm for Buller (yr.no below) during this period, compared to about 20cm further north. The other Southern resorts benefit as well.
     
  22. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Yes mr t, baw baw usually does very well with the sw frontal systems that comes straight up from Antarctica. But with cut off type systems like this one(which looks to peak and move up through sw vic) it’s usually quiet dry for bawbs imo
     
  23. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Again the increase in snowfall totals this run for the Southern resorts is because of the highly dynamic situation with the models trying to forecast the direction of the loaded NW quadrant hooking north of the low, that passes just south of Melbourne in this latest EC run.

     
  24. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Like I said , we will see what happens but I am going to Hotham on Tuesday .
     
  25. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    So has the system altered in trajectory some what again jb? Has that cold air that was progged to hit western areas of vic now shifted more east?
     
  26. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep.

    Yesterday’s afternoons run:


    Today’s run:


    I mean it could always go backwards, but it’s so close to the event itself.
    Will need 00z to confirm the change.
     
  27. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    It’s really been very erratic in movement this system, interesting watching for sure.
    I did notice this morning on Jane bunn ec model, that for my area the forecast max had lowered by a few degrees for Monday/Tuesday period compared with yesterday run.
     
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  28. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    700MB has a good snow band over the alps vic and nsw between 09z-12z.

     
  29. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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  30. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    That little low that global models have in the strait. The west side of it streams v/ cold ssw wind tomorrow whilst its there
    its separate from the walk-about cold pool.


    1 1600 GMT
     
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  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A nonesense website that used to publish GFS data - this obviously negates paying for a LONG RANGE forecast when GFS is a publicly free NWP Model.

    They no longer publish their source which means there's 0% reliability/credibility.
    Ignore anything that entire website publishes IMO.
     
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  32. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A midday to midnight system, right there.
    12 hours of power.
     
  34. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    average fall rates of 3cm p/h IMO
     
  35. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Monday 1 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -1
    Max 0
    Snow showers. Very windy.
    Possible rainfall: 10 to 35 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening with possible small hail. Winds northwesterly 40 to 60 km/h, occasionally reaching 60 to 80 km/h before dawn, then shifting westerly 35 to 55 km/h in the early afternoon.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    7 day Town Forecasts
    Precis Icon Location Min Max
    [​IMG] Thredbo Top Station -1 0
    [​IMG] Perisher Valley 0 2
    Tuesday 2 June
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -4
    Max 0
    Snow showers easing. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 2 to 5 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Cloudy. High (80%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the early morning. Winds west to southwesterly 35 to 50 km/h.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]


    Thredbo
     
  36. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Thanks for your advice/opinion on that website. I think Ms. Bunn 's automated weather forecasting is a better bet,
    :) and when used in concert with BOM is not bad way to approach things .
     
  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's important to consider the source. Jane's source is EC = Often what BoM uses.
    By in large you're comparing apples to apples.
     
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  38. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    But nah, we are back to SW Victoria.


    But potential for 600-700m snowfalls in the Ballarat region.

    At this point, we are just going to have to wait and see.
     
  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Where that low pinches on the NW quadrant is where we'll see the substantial convective falls IMO.

    OCF going for a more Western-coastal intersect, then another passage through 'nongs.
     
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  40. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Do you mean Eric Clapton? ;-P. I was not aware that he was/is knowledgeable about weather forecasting!
     
  41. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Latest GFS certainly thinks the low hook will push convection towards the Southern resorts.


    Anyway we will see if EC or GFS has it, or somewhere in the middle, once the main first front is over.
     
  42. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Right to the death, changes run to run are unreal!
    The lowest snow level according to bom is 1100m? But there’s some good thickness in behind that front so id be inclined to go with jb on snow level
     
  43. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Keep a lid on it Mr Tee. An upgrade from Bom for Hotham...
     
  44. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    BOM saying 800m in the Jyndy forecast
     
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  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    1000m on North Central forecast: http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/northcentral.shtml
    Vic BoM is looking a little inconsistent IMO.
    May not get any accumulation below 1000m but certainly cold enough to fall down to 700m at times IMO.
     
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  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    2 trough bands, one through Western Vic circa 10am (associated with that low pinching 700mb), then one (500mb) through Eastern Vic, circa 9pm.
     
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  47. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Intriguing system, looking forward as to what plays out and where.
     
  48. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Still going for a max of 7c up here tomorrow so she’s definitely cold.
     
  49. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Predictive radar forecast.


    If that verify's and partners with a cold shot. The T/storm will be thunder snow.
     
  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    2:30pm Snow in Trentham, Vic
    IMO