Predictions 31st JUL- 6 AUG Top Up

POW Hungry

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It's got all the ingredients of a -IOD top up.
Starts with rain on the 1st, ends with 10-15cm all things going well IMO. Unfortunately pushed South by the ridge to suggest any decent falls will slide with it.
1658819889176.png
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Reckon this period opens the door for a stronger system a day or two hence.
Yeah, I think so too. Considering we've already got some good indications of a strong nodal push around the 8th.
Just need a high to park it's junk on SW WA to limit NW'ly draw in. Alas,, not sure we'll get that sort of blocking in August though... And certainly not when the SW is seeing a gravy train of polar fronts.
 

smokeybear

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Nothin's happening on the 31st.

That I can see.
Even though yr.no is showing it.
fading clipper.
ec-fast_z500_mslp_aus_7.png


That was easy.

What is Janes weather seeing that your aren't or visa versa? This seems pretty optimistic for next Monday and Tuesday.

"Rain may develop on Sunday night, then most models have enough cold air on Monday and Tuesday. All models are liking the potential for good falls.. this has early potential to be a big one, if there is enough cold air.
I'm expecting 10 to 30 cm of snow on Monday and Tuesday."
 
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Donza

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What is Janes weather seeing that your aren't or visa versa? This seems pretty optimistic for next Monday and Tuesday.

"Rain may develop on Sunday night, then most models have enough cold air on Monday and Tuesday. All models are liking the potential for good falls.. this has early potential to be a big one, if there is enough cold air.
I'm expecting 10 to 30 cm of snow on Monday and Tuesday."
Let's revisit tomorrow
 
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Mister Tee on XC Skis

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What is Janes weather seeing that your aren't or visa versa? This seems pretty optimistic for next Monday and Tuesday.

"Rain may develop on Sunday night, then most models have enough cold air on Monday and Tuesday. All models are liking the potential for good falls.. this has early potential to be a big one, if there is enough cold air.
I'm expecting 10 to 30 cm of snow on Monday and Tuesday."
BOM see things differently for Lake Mtn. on 1 & 2 /8/22
It looks too warm IMHO for any decent snow but I will be happy to be wrong.
1658831330606.png
 

Gregah

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1st & 2nd may be looking ok. I can't see the 3rd / 4th ending well if this doesn't change;
1658834416278.png

1658834453197.png
1658834473316.png
 

foxbat

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Interesting how first run same time shows a fair amount of moisture for Wed then next run it disappears…….guess it proves how quickly things change
 

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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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It may change. Hopefully. For the better.
However this is a significant wash out. As it stands currently.
Way way way too warm.

monday 1st aug.png
Ignore the totals IMO. In that scenario, I can't see more than 10-15mm a with a ridge to its NW. Precip totals are overcooked IMO, needs to resolve.
Very little synoptic alignment with GFS too.

Awaiting further alignment, myself.
 
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Donza

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Ignore the totals IMO. In that scenario, I can't see more than 10-15mm a with a ridge to its NW. Precip totals are overcooked IMO, needs to resolve.
Very little synoptic alignment with GFS too.

Awaiting further alignment, myself.
There is a low to the NW.

I'll go off and find it.
Looks like a inland trough.
 

Mister Tee on XC Skis

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Yr.no.PNG

Unfortunately yr.no concurs for Thursday (for perisher)
It looks disastrous for most ski terrain below 1800 M. across the Australian Alps.
:-0
One can only hope for a proper snow system to come through rapidly and repair the damage.
This Monday looks too warm and wet for a proper snowfall result below 1600 M..
IMHO.

Let the modelling run for
a few more days .
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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In respect to the interplay between frontal patterns and ridging, I personally have found GFS quite accurate 4-5 days out this season. I've noticed on a few systems that EC falls into line with GFS within 3-4 days of the event.

I am not convinced of a 'washout doomsday' with this one.... At least not yet.
 

Donza

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In respect to the interplay between frontal patterns and ridging, I personally have found GFS quite accurate 4-5 days out this season. I've noticed on a few systems that EC falls into line with GFS within 3-4 days of the event.

I am not convinced of a 'washout doomsday'. At least not yet.
I'm not convinced of anything yet.
Just showing the EC model and its 00z and 12z run and how lacklustre they are. Then comparing them to the yr.no output. Something isn't correct.


I also think Jane's weather model needs some tweaking.
Its modelling of Perisher is incorrect. Something is amiss.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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I'm not convinced of anything yet.
Just showing the EC model and its 00z and 12z run and how lacklustre they are. Then comparing them to the yr.no output. Something isn't correct.


I also think Jane's weather model needs some tweaking.
Its modelling of Perisher is incorrect. Something is amiss.
Sounds like GFS is worth a look in. ;)
 

BlueHue

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Peanut gallery comment on potential rain next week. Does not look quite right compared to normal scenarios where prefrontal NWers deliver whale watching conditions to Perisher Creek. The rainband airstream resembles more of a south slider scenario to me with delayed cold air behind ie less rain followed by less snow behind it.....
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Def a West Oz peaker as per OP - i.e. slider system

Here's @janesweather 's consensus product, showing ok agreement for Monday. Alignment falls apart after Monday. Click for larger (you'll need a desktop screen to view).
Models include GFS, AUS Access and the Canuck. monday showing 18-31cm ranfge for Monday - IMO it'll get there by Tuesday AM.
1658892443962.png
 
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