Predictions 31st JUL- 6 AUG Top Up

[POW Hungry]

It's got all the ingredients of a -IOD top up.
Starts with rain on the 1st, ends with 10-15cm all things going well IMO. Unfortunately pushed South by the ridge to suggest any decent falls will slide with it.

 

[Donza]

Reckon this period opens the door for a stronger system a day or two hence.

 

[MickM]

YR/NO Buller

 

[POW Hungry]

Reckon this period opens the door for a stronger system a day or two hence.

Yeah, I think so too. Considering we've already got some good indications of a strong nodal push around the 8th.
Just need a high to park it's junk on SW WA to limit NW'ly draw in. Alas,, not sure we'll get that sort of blocking in August though... And certainly not when the SW is seeing a gravy train of polar fronts.

 

[will it snow]

Reckon this period opens the door for a stronger system a day or two hence.

some playing at home are interested in 30th-2nd conditions

 

[will it snow]

I see 10-20 snow to 900m Monday, worth discussion imo

 

[Donza]

I see 10-20 snow to 900m Monday, worth discussion imo

I see a dusting for nsw . After a nw rainband. Via EC 00z.

 

[will it snow]

some playing at home are interested in 30th-2nd conditions

I see a dusting for nsw . After a nw rainband. Via EC 00z.

not the answer I was expecting..
different scenario in Vic ?
much uncertainty in models ?

 

[smokeybear]

Nothin's happening on the 31st.

That I can see.
Even though yr.no is showing it.
fading clipper.

That was easy.

What is Janes weather seeing that your aren't or visa versa? This seems pretty optimistic for next Monday and Tuesday.

"Rain may develop on Sunday night, then most models have enough cold air on Monday and Tuesday. All models are liking the potential for good falls.. this has early potential to be a big one, if there is enough cold air.
I'm expecting 10 to 30 cm of snow on Monday and Tuesday."

 

[Donza]

not the answer I was expecting..
different scenario in Vic ?
much uncertainty in models ?

No. On tonight's EC I don't see much for Victoria

 

[will it snow]

No. On tonight's EC I don't see much for Victoria

ok thank you

 

[Donza]

What is Janes weather seeing that your aren't or visa versa? This seems pretty optimistic for next Monday and Tuesday.

"Rain may develop on Sunday night, then most models have enough cold air on Monday and Tuesday. All models are liking the potential for good falls.. this has early potential to be a big one, if there is enough cold air.
I'm expecting 10 to 30 cm of snow on Monday and Tuesday."

Let's revisit tomorrow

 

[POW Hungry]

It's trending positively and improving on EC Ensembles IMO.
Highlighted in blue below with the large 2-waves in the Indian Ocean. Still showing that Tasman ridge though so a dive South is likely at this stage.

1-8th August MSLP Anom EC Ensembles/Weeklies:

 

[Mister Tee on XC Skis]

What is Janes weather seeing that your aren't or visa versa? This seems pretty optimistic for next Monday and Tuesday.

"Rain may develop on Sunday night, then most models have enough cold air on Monday and Tuesday. All models are liking the potential for good falls.. this has early potential to be a big one, if there is enough cold air.
I'm expecting 10 to 30 cm of snow on Monday and Tuesday."

BOM see things differently for Lake Mtn. on 1 & 2 /8/22
It looks too warm IMHO for any decent snow but I will be happy to be wrong.

 

[POW Hungry]

It got a nice ridge out on GFS 06z so needs a new trend on GFS IMO.

 

[Donza]

I just don't see it.
Looks like peaky binders over WA.

 

[Gregah]

1st & 2nd may be looking ok. I can't see the 3rd / 4th ending well if this doesn't change;

 

[Kletterer]

A bit of colour on EC ensembles ( Meteologix analysis )

 

[foxbat]

Interesting how first run same time shows a fair amount of moisture for Wed then next run it disappears…….guess it proves how quickly things change

 

[Star_Hawk]

James weather very optimistic for Monday at Thredbo.

 

[foxbat]

James weather very optimistic for Monday at Thredbo.

And plenty of the bad stuff on Thursday

 

[Donza]

Personally.
I 'dont see it. At this stage.
However we are a fair way away.

 

[Star_Hawk]

And plenty of the bad stuff on Thursday

Hush, we don’t talk about that

 

[foxbat]

Hush, we don’t talk about that

Like Macbeth from Blackadder?

 

[Donza]

It may change. Hopefully. For the better.
However this is a significant wash out. As it stands currently.
Way way way too warm.

 

[POW Hungry]

(bitter) Sweet '16.

 

[POW Hungry]

It may change. Hopefully. For the better.
However this is a significant wash out. As it stands currently.
Way way way too warm.

Ignore the totals IMO. In that scenario, I can't see more than 10-15mm a with a ridge to its NW. Precip totals are overcooked IMO, needs to resolve.
Very little synoptic alignment with GFS too.

Awaiting further alignment, myself.

 

[Donza]

Ignore the totals IMO. In that scenario, I can't see more than 10-15mm a with a ridge to its NW. Precip totals are overcooked IMO, needs to resolve.
Very little synoptic alignment with GFS too.

Awaiting further alignment, myself.

There is a low to the NW.

I'll go off and find it.
Looks like a inland trough.

 

[Donza]

Looks tidy on GFS. NO doubt.

 

[Mister Tee on XC Skis]

Thursday August the 4th looks very wet
:-0
but potentially
some more snow will follow the R*** on 5/8/22.
This Monday has potential for snow.

 

[Star_Hawk]

Thursday August the 4th looks very wet
:-0
but potentially
some more snow will follow the R*** on 5/8/22.
This Monday has potential for snow.

Unfortunately yr.no concurs for Thursday (for perisher)

 

[Mister Tee on XC Skis]

Unfortunately yr.no concurs for Thursday (for perisher)

It looks disastrous for most ski terrain below 1800 M. across the Australian Alps.
:-0
One can only hope for a proper snow system to come through rapidly and repair the damage.
This Monday looks too warm and wet for a proper snowfall result below 1600 M..
IMHO.

Let the modelling run for
a few more days .

 

[POW Hungry]

In respect to the interplay between frontal patterns and ridging, I personally have found GFS quite accurate 4-5 days out this season. I've noticed on a few systems that EC falls into line with GFS within 3-4 days of the event.

I am not convinced of a 'washout doomsday' with this one.... At least not yet.

 

[Donza]

In respect to the interplay between frontal patterns and ridging, I personally have found GFS quite accurate 4-5 days out this season. I've noticed on a few systems that EC falls into line with GFS within 3-4 days of the event.

I am not convinced of a 'washout doomsday'. At least not yet.

I'm not convinced of anything yet.
Just showing the EC model and its 00z and 12z run and how lacklustre they are. Then comparing them to the yr.no output. Something isn't correct.


I also think Jane's weather model needs some tweaking.
Its modelling of Perisher is incorrect. Something is amiss.

 

[POW Hungry]

I'm not convinced of anything yet.
Just showing the EC model and its 00z and 12z run and how lacklustre they are. Then comparing them to the yr.no output. Something isn't correct.


I also think Jane's weather model needs some tweaking.
Its modelling of Perisher is incorrect. Something is amiss.

Sounds like GFS is worth a look in.

 

[weathersourse]

12z meteo was.

 

[BlueHue]

Peanut gallery comment on potential rain next week. Does not look quite right compared to normal scenarios where prefrontal NWers deliver whale watching conditions to Perisher Creek. The rainband airstream resembles more of a south slider scenario to me with delayed cold air behind ie less rain followed by less snow behind it.....

 

[Star_Hawk]

Yr.no update - looks even worse now

 

[POW Hungry]

Def a West Oz peaker as per OP - i.e. slider system

Here's @janesweather 's consensus product, showing ok agreement for Monday. Alignment falls apart after Monday. Click for larger (you'll need a desktop screen to view).
Models include GFS, AUS Access and the Canuck. monday showing 18-31cm ranfge for Monday - IMO it'll get there by Tuesday AM.

 

[foxbat]

Damn...picked a great week to go down....is it really bad or may it change?

just had a look on the desktop.....so above graph showing rain coming late wed evening?

 

[lewis]

Back end of date range looks a little better than last run.

 

[Donza]

For the record.
It looks decent on the NCEP ensembles too.

 

[BlueHue]

Fun and games picking your day. Get it right and it will be great, get it wrong......

For mine next Tuesday is probably day of the week and possibly one of the best days this season.

 

[foxbat]

Fun and games picking your day. Get it right and it will be great, get it wrong......

For mine next Tuesday is probably day of the week and possibly one of the best days this season.

wow...best day of season...hope so.

 

[BlueHue]

wow...best day of season...hope so.

*possibly one off*

Just covering my a** if I'm wrong

 

[Formally_FS04]

Reckon this period opens the door for a stronger system a day or two hence.

That's often when you get the best systems come through and what happened with the mega late May / early June dump this year. Need that weak-ish system to break down the High pressure belt and open up the back door for some nukage

 

[Mister Tee on XC Skis]

Wed. August 3rd looks very wet at present. I would like to be very wrong about that .
On the present EC run it looks like 60 mm of R*** during the 3rd & 4th of August.
That would not be
good to say the least.

 

[Donza]

EC still not feeling the 1st.
At all.

 

[Mister Tee on XC Skis]

EC still not feeling the 1st.
At all.

BOM likes the look of August 1 st
Monday at Buller and Falls.

 

[Donza]

On the other hand. The 4th is looking tidier