Predictions 31st JUL- 6 AUG Top Up
- Thread starter POW Hungry
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@Kletterer do you have that chart for next weekend (say Friday through Sunday) showing the predicted snowfall by ensemble member?
@Buller backend stating to look excellent!
Busy making turns atm sorry
Falls Creek on the forecast from ECMWF is now on board for snow for next weekend.@Buller backend stating to look excellent!
How much of snow pack loss does the panel think we are looking at suffering due to the R*** that is coming?
So IMO I think we're looking at 20-40mm of rain this Sunday, +8-15cm of snow by Monday midday.
Followed by 30-45mm of rain Thursday, +15-25cm by next Sunday AM IMO.
Hope so but not holding my breath. Down grade of totals would be welcomed.Thursday
… Guess that’s going to change over the coming days.
All mainland resorts. The range of falls reflects this.
My take on them range of falls suggests break even event at best
IMO the determs models have a bit more moisture (prefrontal) upgrading to go, I reckon.
Yeah I'm thinking 100mm plus for Perisher Wednesday
When do you think it’s going come through? Late in the day I’m hoping.
I think Wednesday is wet and windy from sun up. Sorry.
However . Yeah gets heavier later.
Just peeking @ the ec in 6hr increments can't see anymore than 30mm of precip on wednesday for that day atm. Unsure what you peeps are looking @ for that total for perisher.BOM's latest Perisher forecast for the Aug 3-5.
Do they shut things down for safety on the ski slopes around Perisher when the wind is gusting to 90kmph?
With Thursday forecast to be so warm, windy and rainy, does that pose an avalanche risk?
And will any snow sports or snow sports lessons likely actually happen on Thursday with the below forecast?
We can discuss in the Perisher thread.BOM's latest Perisher forecast for the Aug 3-5.
Do they shut things down for safety on the ski slopes around Perisher when the wind is gusting to 90kmph?
With Thursday forecast to be so warm, windy and rainy, does that pose an avalanche risk?
And will any snow sports or snow sports lessons likely actually happen on Thursday with the below forecast?
I'll bring whalesHave never seen snow above 2000m lowering to 1900m in the Bom forecast, but I do know that any time they have a level higher than 1800m in their forecast, it's rain all the way to Rawson pass i.e the dunnies at about 2100m on the flank of Kozzie
Could be crowded above 2000m at Perisher on Thursday.
Karels has a nice steep leeward face, perfect for days like Thursday...... if it does actually snow to 1900m
Afaik it looks like snow late on Sunday night and continuing into Monday morning.In fact Monday could be quite good for fresh tracks at Falls creek and Hotham.
As you said, a very widespread rain event. No resort will dodge this one
OCF precip thinking over both both days atm.
I am not seeing any immunity to the amounts of rain Thursday.
Expect upgrades IMO.
from all sources.
FIFY
EC's forecast for Falls Creek is jumping around. Today it says very little snow will follow the rain on 5/8/22.
:-0
BOM thinks snow at Falls Creek on 5/8/22 is likely.
That would have been awesome windsurfing weather for Cowaramup Bay when I lived there, and that was my thing.
Just an observation
Bitter cold south westerlies on will be on the table over there no doubt over the next few days.
Not showing a high level of melted precip on the trend for cooma atm on ec.
Something's looking outta wack over those days atm maybe needs another 24hrs for anyone to have any confidence in what's on the table with modeling from all globals.
Just to clarify why for me i believe these high and some very high 100mm+ plus
totals be touted may need more resolution time, first it was for wednesday now its on thursday. RE 18Z GFS model above 0.5-0.6 is dryish air, not moisture rich in it.
Dynamic atmosphere.
I'm pretty sure the high totals first being touted for on wednesday was likely because they were seen on some model or on facebook or someones website somewhere on the net.
Hopefully wednesday and thursdays wolf crys for 100+ don't pan out as some other are thinking.BOM has Perisher lowered to 1700 for snow on Wednesday.....possible?This arvo and the next 24 hours is quite nice on axs_c
Had the feel of a nice drop coming this morning. Hopefully something good tonight.
Quite a large difference between Boms ens and its G model with totals over that period.BOMs WATL product:
Wednesday
Thursday
12am Wed to 10pm thurs.
ABOVE see's life threatening flash flooding potential over some areas.
Boms site mets-eye not seein heavy rain on its chart.
