Predictions 31st JUL- 6 AUG Top Up

jonathanc

upright toboggan enthusiast
Ski Pass
Aug 4, 2014
2,700
4,873
363
@Kletterer do you have that chart for next weekend (say Friday through Sunday) showing the predicted snowfall by ensemble member?
 
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MickM

A Local
Ski Pass
Aug 15, 2001
6,448
7,485
563
Gordon, Vic
@Buller backend stating to look excellent!
1659150084890.png
 
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weathersourse

One of Us
May 24, 2022
313
961
213
Just peeking @ the ec in 6hr increments can't see anymore than 30mm of precip on wednesday for that day atm. Unsure what you peeps are looking @ for that total for perisher.
 

Yogurt_FreeZone

Two of them
Ski Pass
Dec 28, 2020
581
1,466
263
St George, Sydney Metro
BOM's latest Perisher forecast for the Aug 3-5.

Do they shut things down for safety on the ski slopes around Perisher when the wind is gusting to 90kmph?

With Thursday forecast to be so warm, windy and rainy, does that pose an avalanche risk?

And will any snow sports or snow sports lessons likely actually happen on Thursday with the below forecast?


Screenshot 2022-07-30 at 8.50.45 pm.png
 

Donza

Dogs body...
Platinum
Apr 21, 2004
140,078
107,668
3,563
woonona
BOM's latest Perisher forecast for the Aug 3-5.

Do they shut things down for safety on the ski slopes around Perisher when the wind is gusting to 90kmph?

With Thursday forecast to be so warm, windy and rainy, does that pose an avalanche risk?

And will any snow sports or snow sports lessons likely actually happen on Thursday with the below forecast?


Screenshot 2022-07-30 at 8.50.45 pm.png
We can discuss in the Perisher thread.
I'll bring whales
 

Ramshead

One of Us
Ski Pass
Apr 5, 2006
1,830
5,129
363
52
Sydney
Have never seen snow above 2000m lowering to 1900m in the Bom forecast, but I do know that any time they have a level higher than 1800m in their forecast, it's rain all the way to Rawson pass i.e the dunnies at about 2100m on the flank of Kozzie
 

foxbat

Hard Yards
Jul 16, 2018
92
49
68
latest reports showing less r##n on wed with the bulk arriving wed pm and most on Thursday….anyone agree?
 

weathersourse

One of Us
May 24, 2022
313
961
213
Not showing a high level of melted precip on the trend for cooma atm on ec.

Screenshot_20220731_091752.jpg

Something's looking outta wack over those days atm maybe needs another 24hrs for anyone to have any confidence in what's on the table with modeling from all globals.
 
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Nidecker

A Local
Ski Pass
Aug 5, 2009
7,045
15,461
563
Alpine the dark side of snowboarding
Well, in SW WA we’ve been getting tail slapped with the precursor low today, which looks like Fujiwarring into the main monster low to affect us (southern WA) from Monday.

Looked benign on the charts today, planned work over water in an exposed position to the west & it was mighty fresh. Don’t feel the cold but today it felt cold. Worked in salopets, rarely one day a year for that, needed beanie & more layers, didn’t have them in truck. Frequent westerly squalls, big fat raindrops, that were like ice. Usually such a pattern in boardshort weather for us….

Just saying, the lead in for the system feels cold & moist.

That would have been awesome windsurfing weather for Cowaramup Bay when I lived there, and that was my thing.
Just an observation
 

weathersourse

One of Us
May 24, 2022
313
961
213
Not showing a high level of melted precip on the trend for cooma atm on ec.

Screenshot_20220731_091752.jpg

Something's looking outta wack over those days atm maybe needs another 24hrs for anyone to have any confidence in what's on the table with modeling from all globals.



GFS Energy Australia Precipitable Water.gif

Just to clarify why for me i believe these high and some very high 100mm+ plus
totals be touted may need more resolution time, first it was for wednesday now its on thursday. RE 18Z GFS model above 0.5-0.6 is dryish air, not moisture rich in it.


Dynamic atmosphere.


I'm pretty sure the high totals first being touted for on wednesday was likely because they were seen on some model or on facebook or someones website somewhere on the net.

Hopefully wednesday and thursdays wolf crys for 100+ don't pan out as some other are thinking.
 
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