That is a wild chart. I don't remember seeing a low pressure system like that before.BOM 4 dayer out now. Lots going on down in that souther ocean.
By Thursday PM that low is looking good with the imbedded troughs and hopefully colder air.
Would like a look at what eventuates on Friday.
It gets worse on janes weather consensus. I am really, really hoping this is horribly wrong, but i don't see it going any other way then this right now IMO. 187mm would be a season ending amount, or at least close most terrain.
Hard to decide whether there is a higher likelihood of waterfalls than avalanches next week!
That spread is not "concensus"It gets worse on janes weather consensus. I am really, really hoping this is horribly wrong, but i don't see it going any other way then this right now IMO. 187mm would be a season ending amount, or at least close most terrain.
Well that wouldn't be so bad, 50mm or so.00z OCF thinking for Thursday.
its her "consensus" model which combines GFS, ACCESS and GEM. I was just using her name for it.
True, just using her name for it. Hopefully the disagreement in the numbers means we won’t get anywhere near 187mm.
Good question.imho The Bogong High plains and Falls creek will lose at least thirty cms of snow depth.So from 85 cms snow depth we will be lucky to have fifty cms left by the time the precipitation turns to snow.
There have been two episodes of similar magnitude rainfall in recent years at Perisher. It is surprising what the snowpack can actually cope with sometimes. On both of those occasions the most serious issue was with water run off, creeks flooding, and washing away snow bridges etc.
In your opinion. Is the snowpack in a better condition to absorb rain ? Ie its solid AF .
I pulled it out of my posterior body cavity.
In respect to Mr Tee, I have been observing the snow conditions since 1968 and there seems to be a lot of over the top gloom. I have seen several rain events the last big one was a few years back. If temps stay low enough it is like a thunderstorm where torrential rain does not soak in but the water just runs off. The real damage is from constant drizzle which eats the snow. Fog also. The rain will contact the snow create ice and run off provided the temps are low enough
At Perisher, lots of areas, particularly snow making areas are pretty frozen solid. The water will largely run off those. Problem areas will be at the margins of the pack where coverage is thin, so at Perisher places like Smiggens, Guthega. Flat areas tend to pool the water as well. So will be a mixed bag. However, no way in the world will a 1-2 day event of 150mm be "season ending".
*Cooma.50 member's and control.
Check the 03-05 mean forecast. Not tying to play it down just showing what the world's best model thinks atm.
Here is a link to a time lapse of the Mt Perisher cam, from the 2016 event out of interest, flooding the bottom. I skiied Mt Perisher the next day, had a good time (it snowed). This was 160mm in 24hours from memory. I can't see the current system being as nasty rain wise?Its was kinda surprising when we saw "that" flood a few years ago between the two bridges at perisher, just how much snow was still there when the water receded.
Wasn't nearly as bad as we thought it would be.
I agree with Robbo, many areas of Perisher are a solid block of ice at the moment, hard to imagine much happening to those areas apart from getting a little more shiny
Also is all the hand wringing about which a particular percentile amount of rain??
Cooma will see a fraction of the precip the ski resorts will.
Dude.
And the day after that event it dumped snow at PerisherIts was kinda surprising when we saw "that" flood a few years ago between the two bridges at perisher, just how much snow was still there when the water receded.
Wasn't nearly as bad as we thought it would be.
I agree with Robbo, many areas of Perisher are a solid block of ice at the moment, hard to imagine much happening to those areas apart from getting a little more shiny
Also is all the hand wringing about which a particular percentile amount of rain??
Its not unusual when we get these strong NW bands in a winter to get a huge rain. Big snow event.
2003 absolutely p*ssing down rain one night in early September from north westerly cloud band, from memory ended up in 80-100mm in 12 hours. Went to bed expecting to drive home next morning but instead beelined to perisher after fresh snow hit 30cm in a few hours from early morning. Dumped hard all day, skied Sun Valley all day in some of the deepest aussie pow I've skied. From memory by next morning it was a 1m dump or very close to it in less than 36 hrs.
