Predictions 31st JUL- 6 AUG Top Up

GSea

One of Us
Aug 7, 2010
359
364
163
60
Gold Coast Queensland Australia
BOM 4 dayer out now. Lots going on down in that souther ocean.
By Thursday PM that low is looking good with the imbedded troughs and hopefully colder air.
Would like a look at what eventuates on Friday.
1659245981790.png
 
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass

Yogurt_FreeZone

Two of them
Ski Pass
Dec 28, 2020
580
1,460
263
St George, Sydney Metro
Have never seen snow above 2000m lowering to 1900m in the Bom forecast
Could be crowded above 2000m at Perisher on Thursday.

Make that 1900mm with the amended Perisher forecast.

Although with up to 100kmph winds (and the normally stronger gusts than that which will appear in the associated sever weather warning if this forecast holds), it might blow some of the snow down to lower levels.

Thursday now looks like Noah's Ark conditions on Mount Perisher.
No chance of thunderstorm asthma in the forecast thunderstorms though.
So best keep your ski-brellas at home unless they can withstand both lightning and 125kph wind gusts.

And Thredbo is looking even wetter than Perisher on Thursday with
90 to 150 mm of whatever forecast.

Screenshot 2022-07-31 at 4.42.53 pm.png
 
  • Angry
Reactions: Schnitzelnschnapps
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass

Vandans

Addicted
Aug 15, 2012
229
160
113
ACT
I recall August 1968 when I drove up to Kiandra after a huge rain event the day before. There were lakes of water siting on the snow pack that had iced over and created a solid base to hold the water. You could also see where the water had created gullies in the snow pack and had ran off.
 

rowsey85

Hard Yards
Oct 3, 2013
24
18
58
Let's hope the ECM (second from top) is what happens much less precip than the other models and colder (not this is for Thredbo Village)

Screenshot_20220731-181458_Windy.jpg
 
  • Like
Reactions: cornice12
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass

Mister Tee on XC Skis

Not your average unconventional eccentric.
Ski Pass
Jul 29, 2015
14,029
15,129
813
Melbourne, Lockdown-i-stan .
soundcloud.com
Early season start, early season finish? What kind of damage can we expect at the majors with this event?
Good question.imho The Bogong High plains and Falls creek will lose at least thirty cms of snow depth.So from 85 cms snow depth we will be lucky to have fifty cms left by the time the precipitation turns to snow.
I would be happy to be wrong.
 

robbo mcs

A Local
Ski Pass
Sep 1, 2008
5,906
28,175
563
Kenthurst / Jindabyne
Early season start, early season finish? What kind of damage can we expect at the majors with this event?
There have been two episodes of similar magnitude rainfall in recent years at Perisher. It is surprising what the snowpack can actually cope with sometimes. On both of those occasions the most serious issue was with water run off, creeks flooding, and washing away snow bridges etc.

Obviously a deluge is going to do harm, and is not what we want to see. However, if it is followed by decent snowfall it may well not be catastrophic as imagined.

I can't recall the date of the big Perisher event, the infamous "whale watching" 160mm event. However, if someone has the dates, it would be easy to look at reports and pics from the time on the Perisher pages
 

Donza

Dogs body...
Platinum
Apr 21, 2004
139,977
107,397
3,563
woonona
There have been two episodes of similar magnitude rainfall in recent years at Perisher. It is surprising what the snowpack can actually cope with sometimes. On both of those occasions the most serious issue was with water run off, creeks flooding, and washing away snow bridges etc.

Obviously a deluge is going to do harm, and is not what we want to see. However, if it is followed by decent snowfall it may well not be catastrophic as imagined.

I can't recall the date of the big Perisher event, the infamous "whale watching" 160mm event. However, if someone has the dates, it would be easy to look at reports and pics from the time on the Perisher pages
In your opinion. Is the snowpack in a better condition to absorb rain ? Ie its solid AF .
 

Vandans

Addicted
Aug 15, 2012
229
160
113
ACT
How did you come to the 30cm figure?
In respect to Mr Tee, I have been observing the snow conditions since 1968 and there seems to be a lot of over the top gloom. I have seen several rain events the last big one was a few years back. If temps stay low enough it is like a thunderstorm where torrential rain does not soak in but the water just runs off. The real damage is from constant drizzle which eats the snow. Fog also. The rain will contact the snow create ice and run off provided the temps are low enough
 

robbo mcs

A Local
Ski Pass
Sep 1, 2008
5,906
28,175
563
Kenthurst / Jindabyne
In your opinion. Is the snowpack in a better condition to absorb rain ? Ie its solid AF .
At Perisher, lots of areas, particularly snow making areas are pretty frozen solid. The water will largely run off those. Problem areas will be at the margins of the pack where coverage is thin, so at Perisher places like Smiggens, Guthega. Flat areas tend to pool the water as well. So will be a mixed bag. However, no way in the world will a 1-2 day event of 150mm be "season ending".

The other problem we saw in previous years with the large rainfall was hidden damage underneath. The snowpack seemed to survive the rain event ok, but there was a lot of damage lurking underneath where water had flowed or pooled, which became much more evident in spring
 

Nidecker

A Local
Ski Pass
Aug 5, 2009
7,028
15,320
563
Alpine the dark side of snowboarding
At Perisher, lots of areas, particularly snow making areas are pretty frozen solid. The water will largely run off those. Problem areas will be at the margins of the pack where coverage is thin, so at Perisher places like Smiggens, Guthega. Flat areas tend to pool the water as well. So will be a mixed bag. However, no way in the world will a 1-2 day event of 150mm be "season ending".

The other problem we saw in previous years with the large rainfall was hidden damage underneath. The snowpack seemed to survive the rain event ok, but there was a lot of damage lurking underneath where water had flowed or pooled, which became much more evident in spring

Its was kinda surprising when we saw "that" flood a few years ago between the two bridges at perisher, just how much snow was still there when the water receded.

Wasn't nearly as bad as we thought it would be.

I agree with Robbo, many areas of Perisher are a solid block of ice at the moment, hard to imagine much happening to those areas apart from getting a little more shiny :)

Also is all the hand wringing about which a particular percentile amount of rain??
 

robbo mcs

A Local
Ski Pass
Sep 1, 2008
5,906
28,175
563
Kenthurst / Jindabyne
Its was kinda surprising when we saw "that" flood a few years ago between the two bridges at perisher, just how much snow was still there when the water receded.

Wasn't nearly as bad as we thought it would be.

I agree with Robbo, many areas of Perisher are a solid block of ice at the moment, hard to imagine much happening to those areas apart from getting a little more shiny :)

Also is all the hand wringing about which a particular percentile amount of rain??
Here is a link to a time lapse of the Mt Perisher cam, from the 2016 event out of interest, flooding the bottom. I skiied Mt Perisher the next day, had a good time (it snowed). This was 160mm in 24hours from memory. I can't see the current system being as nasty rain wise?

https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/perisher-2016-trip-reports-chat-pics-stoke-here.74977/post-3062619
 

Donza

Dogs body...
Platinum
Apr 21, 2004
139,977
107,397
3,563
woonona
Ok so it don't rain or snow in cooma.

Pretty much same old one don't agree with youse and then it's pile on lol.
Dude.
Calm your farm.

No. It very rarely snows in Cooma. Unless its from the sou east. Its in a significant rain shadow.
As is the majority of the monaro plain.

Cooma is quite a unique spot weather wise.
 

skinavy

One of Us
Ski Pass
Feb 7, 2001
4,896
10,332
363
Canberra, ACT
Its was kinda surprising when we saw "that" flood a few years ago between the two bridges at perisher, just how much snow was still there when the water receded.

Wasn't nearly as bad as we thought it would be.

I agree with Robbo, many areas of Perisher are a solid block of ice at the moment, hard to imagine much happening to those areas apart from getting a little more shiny :)

Also is all the hand wringing about which a particular percentile amount of rain??
And the day after that event it dumped snow at Perisher
 

rocketboy

One of Us
Ski Pass
Sep 9, 2010
3,481
7,029
363
Gerroa
And the day after that event it dumped snow at Perisher

Some of these back to back rain/snow events have been incredible. With the final aftermath better than what was before the rain.

the 2016 was a wipe out that was repaired straight away.

and another one a few years later that was actually a higher clear precip count - did basically nothing to the snow pack - which I recall left everyone stunned to see - and even the snow pack quality was basically ok - with only a small top up
 

BlueHue

One of Us
Ski Pass
Apr 17, 2003
3,942
4,746
363
47
South of Cooma
Some of these back to back rain/snow events have been incredible. With the final aftermath better than what was before the rain.

the 2016 was a wipe out that was repaired straight away.

and another one a few years later that was actually a higher clear precip count - did basically nothing to the snow pack - which I recall left everyone stunned to see - and even the snow pack quality was basically ok - with only a small top up
2003 absolutely p*ssing down rain one night in early September from north westerly cloud band, from memory ended up in 80-100mm in 12 hours. Went to bed expecting to drive home next morning but instead beelined to perisher after fresh snow hit 30cm in a few hours from early morning. Dumped hard all day, skied Sun Valley all day in some of the deepest aussie pow I've skied. From memory by next morning it was a 1m dump or very close to it in less than 36 hrs.

Dont know that we will get that much Friday Saturday but certainly looks promising for what might be our best snowfall since the early season bonanza.
 

rocketboy

One of Us
Ski Pass
Sep 9, 2010
3,481
7,029
363
Gerroa
Latest on Norway is pretty dismal. Wednesday looks to be soaked in now as well. At best above 1800m might look okay by Saturday.
 
  • Like
Reactions: lewis
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass

Log in

or Log in using