Predictions 31st JUL- 6 AUG Top Up

Nidecker

A Local
Ski Pass
Aug 5, 2009
7,045
15,461
563
Alpine the dark side of snowboarding
For Perisher it does. More snow than rain for Buller though.

Yeah in that 4day rule territiory :(

1659303220654.png



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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
25,612
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Eastern Burbs of Sydney
Screenshot_20220801_093004.jpg

Screenshot_20220801_093525.jpg

Just a update.
Just to be clear, my suggestion of + tonne, is born from opinion, gut feel and experience. Not saying I know it all, just a gut feeling the models will stack it on in the next few runs. We watch these AWS specifically in here and models typically undercook moisture prog days out - not considering a -IOD signal like we've got on the table.
Case in point: Last night Perisher AWS picked up 53mm when the progs put forward 15-20mm

I am certainly not arguing with what EC puts up but +50mm that the determs puts on the board aren't marrying up with the Ensemble Mean - that says to me it'll go well north of the plots above for places like Perisher, Cabra, Thredbo TS.

All healthy discussion of course.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
25,612
45,055
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Eastern Burbs of Sydney
How is that ensemble forecast translated into these numbers? Yr.no Charlotte Pass.
Screen Shot 2022-08-01 at 9.45.37 am.png
It's exactly my point, but to be fair YrNo has a carry over precip from 2300-0400hrs. It's just the bracket timing of the precip that makes Thursday look drastically worse than the determs/ensembles.

But yah, it 'aint looking great forsure.
 
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18dtam

First Runs
Aug 1, 2022
2
0
1
Lets hope its more like GFS (these are 24 hour precip progs)
gfs thus.png
Been following this thread intently as I’m booked for a trip commencing tomorrow through till Sunday.
Is it all doom and gloom and totally unskiable Wed/Thurs? If so we will make some alternate off mountain plans!
 

18dtam

First Runs
Aug 1, 2022
2
0
1
Been following this thread intently as I’m booked for a trip commencing tomorrow through till Sunday.
Is it all doom and gloom and totally unskiable Wed/Thurs? If so we will make some alternate off mountain plans!
Just to clarify we are heading to falls
 

Nidecker

A Local
Ski Pass
Aug 5, 2009
7,045
15,461
563
Alpine the dark side of snowboarding
Just to clarify we are heading to falls

Been following this thread intently as I’m booked for a trip commencing tomorrow through till Sunday.
Is it all doom and gloom and totally unskiable Wed/Thurs? If so we will make some alternate off mountain plans!

Something on the lake perhaps? Canoe and a fishing rod?
 
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weathersourse

One of Us
May 24, 2022
313
961
213
RE: Pow.

Yeah its a noaa's but with tweeks as they test.. It also see's the break with the dry air intrusion into the stream.
..............................................................................................................................
As i said before not trying to sugar coat. Best advice is for anyone thinking about going down is to use the bom's offical advice for alps forecasts. Going to region with 100+ mm forecast is tempting fate.


Screenshot 2022-08-01 14:36:57.png

Screenshot 2022-08-01 14:35:45.png
 

mr

Old n' Crusty
Ski Pass
Oct 24, 2003
20,325
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melbourne
Is that landslide territory for Thredbo, or is all that all been sorted? IIRC it was a similar period
 

Kletterer

Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
Moderator
Ski Pass
Nov 26, 2014
25,177
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A fair proportion of the amount of precip Thursday is due to the huge amount of Shear Instability . The Deep Layer Shear progged on EC looks overcooked imo.
 

jonathanc

upright toboggan enthusiast
Ski Pass
Aug 4, 2014
2,700
4,873
363
Siding with the GFDL SHiELD product you posted earlier.
Focusing precip more-towards the CT's/NTs.
GFS also has the worst of the Thursday rain going north of the main range - looks similar to the SHiELD maps @weathersourse posted earlier:

Screenshot_2022-08-01-21-01-54-75.jpg


Makes sense as SHiELD shares some parameters with GFS.

Edit - there's still a solid whack of moisture hitting the main range though.
 

zzaaarp

Hard Yards
Jun 20, 2006
26
49
68
38
Melbourne
Yesterday I travelled to the future (Perth) and it wasn't pretty. Warm and wet all day and wild winds all night. Something to look forward to: flying back into VIC on Thursday morning so get to experience the same moist warm storm twice.
 
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BlueHue

One of Us
Ski Pass
Apr 17, 2003
3,947
4,763
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47
South of Cooma
So can we actually expect decent falls Friday?

I'm seeing very warm 850 hpa temps for most of day at around 4C. I know 500hpa temps are much better and low pressure will mean low 850hpa height working in our favour but is it enough? At this stage I see wet snow/wintry mix that struggles to settle in any significant quantity before turning for the better later Friday. Would still be a hell of a lot better than what's coming Thursday.

Am I missing something or is Friday one of those suck it up and see days waiting for the goods to come.
 

Young Angus

One of Us
Ski Pass
Oct 14, 2018
671
816
263
The Bellarine
Falls and Hotham look like the Bom thinks things are a bit more "could go either way" for the heavy falls later this week...do others here agree?

(bom loving the snowflake symbol haha seriously seems like they roll a dice whether to use it or not sometimes)
 
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