Just to be clear, my suggestion of + tonne, is born from opinion, gut feel and experience. Not saying I know it all, just a gut feeling the models will stack it on in the next few runs. We watch these AWS specifically in here and models typically undercook moisture prog days out - not considering a -IOD signal like we've got on the table.
Just a update.
It's exactly my point, but to be fair YrNo has a carry over precip from 2300-0400hrs. It's just the bracket timing of the precip that makes Thursday look drastically worse than the determs/ensembles.How is that ensemble forecast translated into these numbers? Yr.no Charlotte Pass.
I understand the percentiles. I can't see how the main run translates to the 150mm+ shown on yr.no since both are showing values based on the deterministic forecast/main run yet don't appear to match up.@lewis
This vid by Jack will help you make sense of ens predictions.
Is the same format on meteologix.
Been following this thread intently as I’m booked for a trip commencing tomorrow through till Sunday.Lets hope its more like GFS (these are 24 hour precip progs)
Just to clarify we are heading to falls
Been following this thread intently as I’m booked for a trip commencing tomorrow through till Sunday.
Is it all doom and gloom and totally unskiable Wed/Thurs? If so we will make some alternate off mountain plans!
Put's bullseye through Central & Northern Tablelands, yeah?Fluid dynamic modeling atm don't bullseye the said region in the heavy stream.
Click to expand. By 18z the model see's it offshore. Will leave it @ this good luck with it.
Siding with the GFDL SHiELD product you posted earlier.
GFS also has the worst of the Thursday rain going north of the main range - looks similar to the SHiELD maps @weathersourse posted earlier:Siding with the GFDL SHiELD product you posted earlier.
Focusing precip more-towards the CT's/NTs.