Snow accumulations above 1600m Friday, generally speaking IMO.So can we actually expect decent falls Friday?
I'm seeing very warm 850 hpa temps for most of day at around 4C. I know 500hpa temps are much better and low pressure will mean low 850hpa height working in our favour but is it enough? At this stage I see wet snow/wintry mix that struggles to settle in any significant quantity before turning for the better later Friday. Would still be a hell of a lot better than what's coming Thursday.
Am I missing something or is Friday one of those suck it up and see days waiting for the goods to come.
The chart on the left shows Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) coloured according to the the scale, which is illustrated above the charts. Shift of Tails (SOT) contours are in black.
Experience suggests :
The SOT index provides information about how extreme an event could potentially be. P ositive SOT values indicate that at least 10% of the ensemble is forecasting an extreme event and a high value shows how extreme:
- EFI values between 0.5 to 0.8 (irrespective of sign) can be generally regarded as signifying that unusual weather is likely,
- EFI values above 0.8 (irrespective of sign) as usually signifying that very unusual or extreme weather is likely.
My sense is those snow fall levels in BoM text are an indication of the lowest they will be in that 24 hour period, which makes sense from a 'warning people of bad weather' point of view. But often means a good chunk of the day can be at higher freezing level. If there's big variation sometimes it will indicate how it's changing but generally that single figure can be optimistic.This afternoon's BOM forecast is predicting snow above 1700m for Wednesday and 1900m for Thursday. Still predicting a lot of rain as well. http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/perisher.shtml
That is one of the most disgusting forecasts I have ever seenThis afternoon's BOM forecast is predicting snow above 1700m for Wednesday and 1900m for Thursday. Still predicting a lot of rain as well. http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/perisher.shtml
I remember when it progged 1041mm of rain for a location west of Kangaroo Valley.
And we all roared with laughter.
Wasn't far off.
Can you imagine even close to 280mm?That thredbo forecast makes me feel genuinely sick
Buller getting off easy in comparison.
Will likely result in flooding down low as a result of the rain combined with meltwater. Would not surprise me to see lots of road closures and towns isolated.Can you imagine even close to 280mm?
To put that in perspective the highest 24hr rainfall in Melbourne was 113mm. And from what I can find the highest at Thredbo was 160mm. So this has potential to break the highest by a fair margin. Ugh.
On top of the 45-50mm they’ve already had or including?AXS-C focusing moisture right on the Main Range, bullseye:
I am still thinking 80-110mm in the NSW resorts by midnight tomorrow IMO.
Also makes the assumption that the thermal energy of the water is transmitted completely to the snow, which is incorrect. A large proportion of the water runs off, which minimises interaction and thermal transfer. There is also the assumption that the falling water is at the same temperature as the ambient temperature, which is almost certainly not correct.Just a quick comment on the above, the actual depth loss will be a lot less than this because the rain acts to compress / consolidate the snow pack so therefore the 10:1 ratio is probably more like 5:1 ... but you can not avoid the physics. The mass loss of frozen water is considerably greater for this event than others.
Bom thinks thredbo top will dip negative around 8am Friday morning (around -1). but it looks like it wont get properly cold until sat morning, at least according to them.So when will the air become decently, regular winter cold again? Are we looking at around midnight Friday?