Predictions 31st JUL- 6 AUG Top Up

Jimi

One of Us
Sep 10, 2021
260
692
213
Roseville
E2D20EFD-96A5-436F-A1DC-47072551ECD2.png

Thredbo is predicting a huge* weekend!
* doesn’t denote what will be huge.......
That's an absolute shocker, even by truth-twisting ski resort PR standards
 

Yogurt_FreeZone

Two of them
Ski Pass
Dec 28, 2020
581
1,466
263
St George, Sydney Metro

Severe Weather Warning​

for DAMAGING WINDS​

For people in parts of Illawarra, South Coast, Southern Tablelands, Snowy Mountains and South West Slopes Forecast Districts.

Issued at 11:12 am Tuesday, 2 August 2022.

Damaging winds and blizzard conditions developing over the Alpine region and southeast.

1659407537527.png

Weather Situation: A vigorous northwesterly flow developing over the state early Wednesday morning will see damaging winds developing across the Snowy Mountains as well as on and east of the ranges over the southeastern districts.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS with peak gusts of around 90 km/h are possible over the Southern Tablelands, South Coast, Illawarra and Snowy Mountains districts from early Wednesday morning.

DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 80 to 90 km/h with peak gusts in excess of 125 km/h are likely for Alpine areas above 1900 m from early Wednesday morning

BLIZZARD conditions are forecast over Alpine areas above 1800 m from early Wednesday morning.

Locations which may be affected include Braidwood, Goulburn, Bombala, Charlotte Pass, Thredbo and Nimmitabel.
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
25,612
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So can we actually expect decent falls Friday?

I'm seeing very warm 850 hpa temps for most of day at around 4C. I know 500hpa temps are much better and low pressure will mean low 850hpa height working in our favour but is it enough? At this stage I see wet snow/wintry mix that struggles to settle in any significant quantity before turning for the better later Friday. Would still be a hell of a lot better than what's coming Thursday.

Am I missing something or is Friday one of those suck it up and see days waiting for the goods to come.
Snow accumulations above 1600m Friday, generally speaking IMO.
20-35cm across all resorts above 1600m by Sunday IMO.
 
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DidSurfNowSki

One of them
Ski Pass
Jan 19, 2014
14,685
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Canberra, ACT
It’s officially on ! ;)

Warning to Sheep Graziers​

IDN29000

Warning to Sheep Graziers
for the South West Slopes, Snowy Mountains and Australian Capital Territory forecast districts​

Issued at 5:00 pm EST on Tuesday 2 August 2022.
Sheep graziers are warned that cold temperatures, showers and northwesterly winds are expected during Tuesday and Wednesday. Areas likely to be affected include parts of the South West Slopes, Snowy Mountains and Australian Capital Territory forecast districts. There is a risk of losses of lambs and sheep exposed to these conditions.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
25,612
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EC still backing some decent water vapour transport:
Screen Shot 2022-08-02 at 7.04.11 pm.png

The chart on the left shows Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) coloured according to the the scale, which is illustrated above the charts. Shift of Tails (SOT) contours are in black.

Experience suggests :

  • EFI values between 0.5 to 0.8 (irrespective of sign) can be generally regarded as signifying that unusual weather is likely,
  • EFI values above 0.8 (irrespective of sign) as usually signifying that very unusual or extreme weather is likely.
The SOT index provides information about how extreme an event could potentially be. P ositive SOT values indicate that at least 10% of the ensemble is forecasting an extreme event and a high value shows how extreme:
 
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Chionophile

Hard Yards
Sep 15, 2014
29
135
83
Mount Glasgow
www.philhart.com
This afternoon's BOM forecast is predicting snow above 1700m for Wednesday and 1900m for Thursday. Still predicting a lot of rain as well. http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/perisher.shtml

1659428404655.png
My sense is those snow fall levels in BoM text are an indication of the lowest they will be in that 24 hour period, which makes sense from a 'warning people of bad weather' point of view. But often means a good chunk of the day can be at higher freezing level. If there's big variation sometimes it will indicate how it's changing but generally that single figure can be optimistic.
 

rocketboy

One of Us
Ski Pass
Sep 9, 2010
3,485
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Gerroa
I remember when it progged 1041mm of rain for a location west of Kangaroo Valley.
And we all roared with laughter.

Wasn't far off.
brogers_aep_graphic.jpg

well Barren Grounds does have the second highest annual precip rate in NSW after Mt Warning.

but it's mostly a slow fall rate from an endless drizzle ... and the occasional mega dump
 
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Dave Clark

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jun 20, 2005
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Mt Buller
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That thredbo forecast makes me feel genuinely sick :puke:
Buller getting off easy in comparison.
Can you imagine even close to 280mm?

To put that in perspective the highest 24hr rainfall in Melbourne was 113mm. And from what I can find the highest at Thredbo was 160mm. So this has potential to break the highest by a fair margin. Ugh.
 

trappers

Safety not guaranteed
Moderator
Ski Pass
Jul 28, 1999
40,914
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Can you imagine even close to 280mm?

To put that in perspective the highest 24hr rainfall in Melbourne was 113mm. And from what I can find the highest at Thredbo was 160mm. So this has potential to break the highest by a fair margin. Ugh.
Will likely result in flooding down low as a result of the rain combined with meltwater. Would not surprise me to see lots of road closures and towns isolated. :(
 

blueandwhite

One of Us
Ski Pass
May 26, 2016
1,377
4,607
363
TQY
Anyone have a prediction on whether Friday will be rain or snow at Buller? Jane is talking FL of 1700m until later on Friday in her discussion although the consensus graphics are showing negative temperatures at village level (approx. 1500m) almost all day. Winds look N-NW so guessing the westerly issue isn't in play?

Asking for a friend... well actually I really am, a friend shelled out for a day pass some time ago and is asking if it's still worth travelling tomorrow!
 

robbo mcs

A Local
Ski Pass
Sep 1, 2008
5,923
28,378
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Kenthurst / Jindabyne
Just a quick comment on the above, the actual depth loss will be a lot less than this because the rain acts to compress / consolidate the snow pack so therefore the 10:1 ratio is probably more like 5:1 ... but you can not avoid the physics. The mass loss of frozen water is considerably greater for this event than others.
Also makes the assumption that the thermal energy of the water is transmitted completely to the snow, which is incorrect. A large proportion of the water runs off, which minimises interaction and thermal transfer. There is also the assumption that the falling water is at the same temperature as the ambient temperature, which is almost certainly not correct.

However, I get your point, even if the calculations are imperfect ;)
 
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