Predictions 31st July - 6th August In2minds

[POW Hungry]

Could be a corker, could be mediocre. I am in two minds at the moment. But there's something there on Ensembles & Determs collectively.
Enough to suggest at least something in the 10-25cm ballpark.

EC ensembles:

GFS Anoms:

 

[lewis]

 

[BlueHue]

My dodgey prediction is that the initial phases will peak closer to WA leading to a slippery dip south further east behind a warm north westerly hitting the south east, but there will be a conveyor belt of cold sitting further south west behind the initial front that will come to the fore as the trailing high moves into position over WA.

 

[Jellybeans]

Yeah looking like a NW pickup run on EPS:

Most of the cold looks like it will slide.
But we keep watching anyway, see what it does.

 

[Belly]

And maybe a follow up weekend bluebird window? - fingers crossed

 

[Alfred14]

Still looking ok in this date range.

 

[POW Hungry]

Looking downright excellent in this date range on GFS. EC not there yet.

 

[mick chopps]

Rack em and stack em

 

[Jellybeans]

Rack em and stack em

Snow until Cup day weekend?

 

[mick chopps]

Big 2012 vibes for mine.

 

[Chowder11]

Be skiing on GF day again. Bang

 

[POW Hungry]

EC is trending.

GFS is into it, at the advent of a diving AAO/SAM outlook.

 

[Kletterer]

 

[POW Hungry]

This one looks to be impacted by some good 'ole -'ive IOD prefrontal, but then should deliver a gain IMO.

 

[Jellybeans]

Cheeky top-up?

What is coming behind it could be interesting.

 

[POW Hungry]

Cheeky top-up?

What is coming behind it could be interesting.

Yeah behind it looks a ridge out.
IMHO I think this will trend positively 2-4th August. Some upgrade due yet.

 

[POW Hungry]

GFS tonight showing teeth:

 

[POW Hungry]

GFS is supported by The Canadian.
Could be on here.

 

[Infinity Dawn]

Looks wet, net 0 imo

 

[Claude Cat]

GFS likes it, but not verifying on other models.

 

[blowfin]

GFS likes it, but not verifying on other models.

I guess windy takes their lead from GFS? Looks good for Monday through Wednesday.

 

[FourSquare04]

Big 2012 vibes for mine.

That was a cracking season indeed

 

[mick chopps]

I guess windy takes their lead from GFS? Looks good for Monday through Wednesday.

They render either GFS, EC, or ICON depending on what you select.

 

[mick chopps]

That was a cracking season indeed

If not the depth, certainly the regularity of systems.

 

[POW Hungry]

GFS 00z has good trend, I am finding it hard to ignore IMO.
On paper it’s a good system.

 

[blowfin]

They render either GFS, EC, or ICON depending on what you select.

Ah yes, I knew this Derp

 

[Vandans]

BOM charts looks ok

 

[jungfrau]

BOM charts looks ok

BOM charts looks ok

Pressure NE is dropping

 

[mick chopps]

GFS 00z has good trend, I am finding it hard to ignore IMO.
On paper it’s a good system.

Follow up clip on the 5th looks likely to ridge out?

 

[Roger Mexico]

GFS
204 hours out
let's call it "Confirmation Bias"

 

[POW Hungry]

Follow up clip on the 5th looks likely to ridge out?

Looks like it to me.
12 days out though.

 

[nfip]

Just because Im booked in for the week < rolls eyes>
Low pressures and da hook.
* yes yes yes 360 hrs..... beware the blocker to the East

 

[waza]

What's the start of the this system looking like, I see clear stuff forecast on Saturday night/Sunday, does that look likely?

 

[FourSquare04]

IMO our LWT peak has peaked, these next few systems look like sliders IMO

 

[POW Hungry]

IMO our LWT peak has peaked, these next few systems look like sliders IMO

Still 6 days away, it's a whole new trough. Doesn't have the amplitude of the West Coast but still a top up in it IMO.

What's the start of the this system looking like, I see clear stuff forecast on Saturday night/Sunday, does that look likely?

Yes, it's looking likely. Mentioned above.

 

[BlueHue]

I'm seeing definite improvement for Sunday on ECM, as Pow said elsewhere snow to 1500m from morning a chance. Not sure how much rain to expect before that though. GFS and BOM both tend to agree - difference seems to be the first front for Sunday has moving faster than previous model runs. Trend for the better IMO.

After that has some potential for decent accumulation across a few days with all models from what I can tell trending to periodic fronts embedded in westerly airstream keeping temps for the most part ok. Still a more fickle period than most, not much of stretch to see wet westerlies similar to yesterday creeping in at times.

I'm impressed with the sheer regularity of frontal systems this year!

 

[Hermon]

I'm impressed with the sheer regularity of frontal systems this year!

Yep, that's been a definite characteristic of winter 2021. Like clockwork.

 

[FourSquare04]

Yep, that's been a definite characteristic of winter 2021. Like clockwork.

Hermon what are your thoughts on August, we will see this continue or drop off?

 

[Young Angus]

Yes this...???

Hermon what are your thoughts on August, we will see this continue or drop off?

 

[jungfrau]

weatherzone suggesting 900m snow for 2nd-4th

 

[Hermon]

Hermon what are your thoughts on August, we will see this continue or drop off?

August should continue to deliver. Some risk of clear stuff at times, but a net gain IMO.

 

[POW Hungry]

As long as it’s not positive AAO/SAM it’s game on for Southern Aus this season.
Tried, tested and proven.

 

[Young Angus]

Bom seem to think there are good temps and precip at Hotham for the start of this date range...looks a bit nice, hope it means snow!

 

[Hermon]

Tuesday and Wednesday next week look pretty cold on 18Z GFS.

 

[POW Hungry]

si si, just a bit of mess Sunday to get through ahead of it - associated with that slider.

 

[POW Hungry]

10-15cm fall/gain for majors Monday night to Wednesday IMO.

Lock it in.

I am not here to tell you about the clear stuff due Sunday (1st) as it's outside of the date range. Maybe 20mm of hurt in that IMO.

 

[jungfrau]

I’ll take that

 

[Gandalf]

10-15cm fall/gain for majors Monday night to Wednesday IMO.

Lock it in.

I am not here to tell you about the clear stuff due Sunday (1st) as it's outside of the date range. Maybe 20mm of hurt in that IMO.

Any idea when that clear stuff is due to hit Falls on Sunday?

 

[chriscross]

Wondering how the weather gurus are seeing this next event. Might determine the timing of test.

 

[POW Hungry]

Bearing in mind Sunday outside of date range, anyhow rain for much of Sunday IMO.
20-30mm for the resorts.