Predictions 31st July - 6th August In2minds

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,688
38,695
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
Could be a corker, could be mediocre. I am in two minds at the moment. But there's something there on Ensembles & Determs collectively.
Enough to suggest at least something in the 10-25cm ballpark.

EC ensembles:
Screen Shot 2021-07-22 at 10.07.47 pm.png


GFS Anoms:
Screen Shot 2021-07-22 at 10.07.06 pm.png
 

BlueHue

One of Us
Ski Pass
Apr 17, 2003
3,234
3,221
363
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South of Cooma
My dodgey prediction is that the initial phases will peak closer to WA leading to a slippery dip south further east behind a warm north westerly hitting the south east, but there will be a conveyor belt of cold sitting further south west behind the initial front that will come to the fore as the trailing high moves into position over WA.
 
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nfip

Cold 'n Rusty
Ski Pass
Jul 24, 2006
22,277
27,328
1,063
Yuin Country
Just because Im booked in for the week < rolls eyes>
Low pressures and da hook.
* yes yes yes 360 hrs..... beware the blocker to the East
1627328941724.png
 

waza

Hard Yards
Jun 27, 2002
172
1
88
Sydney
What's the start of the this system looking like, I see clear stuff forecast on Saturday night/Sunday, does that look likely?
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,688
38,695
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
IMO our LWT peak has peaked, these next few systems look like sliders IMO
Still 6 days away, it's a whole new trough. Doesn't have the amplitude of the West Coast but still a top up in it IMO.
1627337138335.png


What's the start of the this system looking like, I see clear stuff forecast on Saturday night/Sunday, does that look likely?
Yes, it's looking likely. Mentioned above.
 

BlueHue

One of Us
Ski Pass
Apr 17, 2003
3,234
3,221
363
46
South of Cooma
I'm seeing definite improvement for Sunday on ECM, as Pow said elsewhere snow to 1500m from morning a chance. Not sure how much rain to expect before that though. GFS and BOM both tend to agree - difference seems to be the first front for Sunday has moving faster than previous model runs. Trend for the better IMO.

After that has some potential for decent accumulation across a few days with all models from what I can tell trending to periodic fronts embedded in westerly airstream keeping temps for the most part ok. Still a more fickle period than most, not much of stretch to see wet westerlies similar to yesterday creeping in at times.

I'm impressed with the sheer regularity of frontal systems this year!
 

Young Angus

One of Us
Ski Pass
Oct 14, 2018
519
624
263
The Bellarine
1627376204100.png

Bom seem to think there are good temps and precip at Hotham for the start of this date range...looks a bit nice, hope it means snow!
 
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Gandalf

Hard Yards
Mar 18, 2020
9
16
53
Melbourne
10-15cm fall/gain for majors Monday night to Wednesday IMO.

Lock it in.

I am not here to tell you about the clear stuff due Sunday (1st) as it's outside of the date range. Maybe 20mm of hurt in that IMO.

Any idea when that clear stuff is due to hit Falls on Sunday?
 
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