Predictions 31st July - 6th August In2minds

smokeybear

Hard Yards
Ski Pass
May 8, 2001
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Canberra, 15 Credibility St
What's the general consensus on Sunday, seeing it fits neatly between deliverance and 2-8th. Is there any chance cold air will come through early enough for afternoon snow in NSW's or will it be Damp all day?

Screenshot_2021-07-29-19-49-44-96_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpg
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
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Eastern Burbs of Sydney
What's the general consensus on Sunday, seeing it fits neatly between deliverance and 2-8th. Is there any chance cold air will come through early enough for afternoon snow in NSW's or will it be Damp all day?

Screenshot_2021-07-29-19-49-44-96_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpg
As above, I am not seeing anything 'positive' for Sunday throughout the resorts IMO.
Whilst there might be a wintery mix at times, it looks wet below 1600m much of Sunday.
 

snowgum

A Local
Ski Pass
May 4, 1999
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I have a chance to ski Stirling on Sunday - your assessment and the forecasts make it look unpleasant for most of the day? And, Stirling is a rain magnet like Buller.

Later next week is looking the goods - a freeze and a modest top up at most elevations?
 

Vandans

Addicted
Aug 15, 2012
211
139
113
ACT
Funny that BOM are not going for much rain at Perisher and snow above 1900 metres Saturday


Saturday 31 July​

Summary
showers.png
Min -3Max 5Showers easing.Possible rainfall: 3 to 5 mmChance of any rain: 80%
rain_80.gif

Alpine area​

Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning. Snow falling above 1900 metres. Winds northwesterly 30 to 45 km/h increasing to 50 to 70 km/h before dawn.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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May 28, 2000
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Funny that BOM are not going for much rain at Perisher and snow above 1900 metres Saturday


Saturday 31 July​

Summary
showers.png
Min -3Max 5Showers easing.Possible rainfall: 3 to 5 mmChance of any rain: 80%
rain_80.gif

Alpine area​

Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning. Snow falling above 1900 metres. Winds northwesterly 30 to 45 km/h increasing to 50 to 70 km/h before dawn.
Yep, there's no dispute in that outcome IMO.
 
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snowgum

A Local
Ski Pass
May 4, 1999
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Yep, there's no dispute in that outcome IMO.
But it looks like wind mind be the limiting factor on both sides of the border this weekend? A few lifts on hold at times if aves. Hit 70K - gusts would be near the 100k mark? (Add rain for Vic elevations?)
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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May 28, 2000
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But it looks like wind mind be the limiting factor on both sides of the border this weekend? A few lifts on hold at times if aves. Hit 70K - gusts would be near the 100k mark? (Add rain for Vic elevations?)
25-30 knot winds, gusting to 40 knots on Saturday AM.
Winds abating around midday.

NB. Have extended out date range by popular demand of those heading to resorts this w/e.
 

jungfrau

One of Us
Jun 25, 2013
710
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263
Tuesday low looks good position imo
Little break of weather monday then 20 cents Tuesday ?
 

Young Angus

One of Us
Ski Pass
Oct 14, 2018
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The Bellarine
Is it still looking really wet tomorrow (Sunday) up in Vic Hotham and Falls? Is it looking like just a bit of rain or a really crappy day all day? Aside from the awesome snow cover of course
 

Phil Hart

Hard Yards
Sep 15, 2014
14
81
63
Mount Glasgow
www.philhart.com
Is it still looking really wet tomorrow (Sunday) up in Vic Hotham and Falls? Is it looking like just a bit of rain or a really crappy day all day? Aside from the awesome snow cover of course
After the rain tonight, both BoM ACCESS-VT and EC have wind easing and the sun coming out for the afternoon. Snow will be soft again like today, but in many ways easier to ski than Friday when there was ice everywhere off the XC groomed trails, with patches of wind blown snow.
 
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Young Angus

One of Us
Ski Pass
Oct 14, 2018
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The Bellarine
After the rain tonight, both BoM ACCESS-VT and EC have wind easing and the sun coming out for the afternoon. Snow will be soft again like today, but in many ways easier to ski than Friday when there was ice everywhere off the XC groomed trails, with patches of wind blown snow.
Thank you for that :)
 
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Cadir

Early Days
Jul 22, 2021
17
57
13
The expected regression to the mean on today's BOM update but still looks decent
 

7wombathead

One of Us
Aug 4, 2010
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Some Cold Snow. Maybe the last for 10 Days, as a big fat High is forecast. Its not the best forecast for the backcountry but finally a Stationary High Pressure.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_aus_6.png



gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_aus_21.png


PCR is Not Valid But GFS is reasonable,
 
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Gregah

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 17, 2016
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IMO still standing by my outlook from last week.
Buller should pick up the most IMO.

Looking like some rain in the tail-end, potentially.
Good to see your call on Buller POW. BoM are forecasting plenty of westerly...but presumably its going to be plenty cold enough to overcome that hurdle?

1627892987846.png
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
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May 28, 2000
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Good to see your call on Buller POW. BoM are forecasting plenty of westerly...but presumably its going to be plenty cold enough to overcome that hurdle?

1627892987846.png
A good portion of Buller's falls are Early AM (tomorrow) under Northerly flow.
Should be settling to Boggy Corner at least by tomorrow AM, IMO.
SW'er by tomorrow night.
Wednesday arvo is where it gets marginal, but I wanna see AXS-C tomorrow AM before jumping the gun on the fickle stuff.
 
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