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Predictions 3rd-5th September

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Jellybeans, Aug 28, 2020.

  1. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    This one is looking decent for a reasonably cold snow-bearing system to come up Friday/Saturday next week.

    All models agree, EC & GEM practically the same, GFS a little earlier and different as usual.




     
  2. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    And the lead into the event, some very strong winds:
    (Thredbo TS)
     
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  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think this one's got every chance of gradual upgrades IMO.
    Long Range AAO outlook is favourable and a decent stratospheric heating event currently underway, which looks to propagate GPH anoms in our region IMO.
     
  4. teleroo

    teleroo Ignored Member Ski Pass: Gold

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    Happy to see this thread up. Guess I was a bit overly pessimistic in my BBQ posts - part of the issue is I'm not aware where to get freebie ECMWF 540 dam thickness plots on the web? 2m still within reach @ Spencers Ck then.
     
  5. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    What do you mean, Tropical Tidbits is free?
     
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  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah 1000-500mb thickness is not freely available that I am aware of.
    anyway here you go (ensembles):


    Determs:


    Not much yet, to get excited about IMO.
     
  7. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    That was the 12z 3-6th plot atm.

    [​IMG]
     
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 00z upgrading things synoptically this arvo - albeit with a reduction in moisture which needs resolve IMO
    Gently gently.
     
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  9. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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  10. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    am_ir_monthly_23.gif







    200MB
    Some decent upper-level divergence over the continent. Any storms about maybe tall ones.
     
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  11. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Those dates say 5th Aug, not 5th Sept?
     
  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Starting to see alignment of a ridge out IMO.
    Doesn’t look great.
     
  13. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Ok yeah was a few JBs' in when i posted that other graphic i was visualizing in my head. . Hungover today.


     
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  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Slip sliding away on determs this arvo.
    Dusting if we're lucky.
     
  15. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    GFS forecast precipitation and 200-hPa velocity potential anomalies


     
  16. teleroo

    teleroo Ignored Member Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM have more or less nuked the snow this Friday/weekend and gone full-on shorts 'n' t-shirt for next week :eek:
     
  17. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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  18. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Pl's post some pic's of yourself strolling around the alps tomorrow friday and saturday in only shorts and tshirt.
     
  19. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    A horribly shit day in the Snowy Mountains

    Hairdryer with slab dryer backup
     
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  20. Laska Goralska

    Laska Goralska One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Here, or skiing
    Was proper shite, can confirm.
     
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  21. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Severe Weather Warning
    for DAMAGING WINDS
    For people in Illawarra, Snowy Mountains and parts of South Coast, Central Tablelands, Southern Tablelands, South West Slopes and Australian Capital Territory Forecast Districts.

    Issued at 4:30 pm Wednesday, 2 September 2020.

    WARM AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RANGES TODAY AND THURSDAY


    Warm northwesterly winds are strengthening ahead of a cold front. This front is forecast to gradually cross New South Wales during Thursday and Friday, generating strong and gusty winds across southeastern New South Wales.

    DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts in excess of 90 kmh are possible for parts of the Snowy Mountains, Australian Capital Territory and South West Slopes today. DAMAGING WINDS may extend to include eastern parts of the Southern Tablelands and Central Tablelands, and parts of the South Coast and Illawarra forecast districts from Thursday morning.

    For Alpine areas above 1900 metres, damaging winds averaging 80 to 100 km/h with peak gusts in excess of 120 km/h are likely.

    Winds are forecast to ease on Thursday evening, after the cold front crosses southeastern New South Wales.

    Locations which may be affected include Thredbo, Nowra, Bowral, Batemans Bay, Katoomba, Cooma and Bombala.

    Thredbo Top Station AWS has been recording mean wind speeds of 80 to 100 km/h from Wednesday morning, with a peak gust of 117 km/h recorded at 9:53am.

    :puke:
     
    dawooduck likes this.