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Predictions 3rd - 7th June Consolidator

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, May 27, 2019.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I am in two minds about this system. It's a tricky one.
    There's divergence and there's potential for some East Coast troughing that may, get drawn into it - bringing with it warm air advection.

    Fortunately, at 150 hours out, there's time on our side.
    EC favours a cut off system, this is where it gets tricky, due to variable nature of where the cold air lands and it's intake from the NE, along the coast. Ideally, we want this moved into the Tasman ASAP.


    The Canuck doesn't mind the 3rd at all and probably has the more advantageous outcome. But it appears to underestimate the coastal trough + plus it has a particularly bullish favouring of the system as it passes SW WA (big divergence).


    GFS paints a more benign picture with only a frontal clipper signaled, yet. To some degree, there is still some of that trough interaction that EC alludes to but it's likely to be pushed Eastward by a shortwave in this scenario, rather than draw it over the Alps.
    GFS:


    IMO we'll see more settlement on this tomorrow once our big anomaly through the SE tomorrow verifies, but my gut and EC's model trend says there's some snowfall there... atleast for now.
     
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS on the otherhand... Is more than welcome to join the pardy, with it's stamp of approval. It's kinda the deciding factor to suggest we have something on our hands...
     
  3. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, I agree. As I said in the other thread, there is definitely something here.
    What it is, is up for debate.

    EC Monday to Weds FWIW:
     
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  4. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    And also it is worth stating that what happens in this period, is important in determining how many lifts can be open on QBW.
     
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  5. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Unsurprisingly EPS favours this system the most. But it is a fair bit more clippy than EC proper.

    GEFS towing the party line.
     
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  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC looking less stalled and better for a quick top up IMO.


    The Canadians

    GFS doesn’t get an invite here as it’s a floozey on it.
     
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  7. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Floozey??
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Moving through other scenarios. It’s not interested.
     
  9. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC likes 3rd and 5th as well.
    Spag agrees
     
  10. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Likes 4th 5th of June alot
     
  11. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  12. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie One of Us

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    It sure does. Aligned with this morning’s EC, so let’s see what this afternoon’s update brings.
     
  13. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie One of Us

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  14. Thommo79

    Thommo79 Hard Yards

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    Thats a long way out isn't? I thought there was some 3 day rule or something? ;)
     
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hence the thread title.
    There’s nothing but north south jet stream in that bad boy.
     
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  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC’s like a dog with a bone RE: 3rd June.
    It maybe alluding to it as the precursor.
    Ridgey and fading though.

    [​IMG]
     
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  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think we're looking down the barrell of a sustained, several shortwave systems here.
    Potentially from the 3-6th June.
    EC showing several swings through the SE.

    Which may also be what GFS & The Canadian are both picking up
     
  18. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    ie the Vibe looks good
     
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks to be shifting to the 6th on EC with only a dusting on the 3rd IMO

     
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  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 3-6th.
    Sends nudes.
    All in.
    Taking no prisoners.
    [​IMG]
     
  21. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thats bold.
     
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  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    yet, trending.
    ...and GFS tends not to trend in the LR.
     
  23. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yummy temps @ 850
     
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  24. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Who likes a bit of Confluence :eek: @ 300 hPa ?
     
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  25. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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  26. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Any more pictures?
     
  27. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nah, I’m a weather lurker. I’ll leave the pics to the amateur experts.
     
  28. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think the amateurs here know more than the so called experts do.
     
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  29. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    No doubt
     
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  30. Paperboy

    Paperboy Hard Yards

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    What a start if this comes off, best opening weekend for years, I'm excited.
     
  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC leaning in on GFS’s scenario of a 3 day bonanza. The Canuck is also interested.
    GFS bullish AF.

    EC


    GFS
     
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  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    No negative AAO period would be complete with a beast-mode cut of so why not for GFS.
     
  33. Max29057

    Max29057 Hard Yards

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    Yr.jo looks incredible for next week at buller
     
  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yr jo!

    ...We've got a bit to chew through yet.
     
  35. Max29057

    Max29057 Hard Yards

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    Autocorrect :)

    Still if this plays out...opening weekend will be incredible!
     
  36. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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  38. Gregah

    Gregah Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    BoM beginning to show some optimism too (Sunday 10pm)
     
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  39. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    That seems like a weird progression for the high, to wrap it on Saturday but not ridge it out
     
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  40. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mid lattitude trough breaking up the ridge
     
  41. Gregah

    Gregah Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Yeah, she's pretty strong at 1037 too...
     
  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    As it stands the LWT dominates the mid-latitudes. This week is prime example of that. this weeks system rolled that sucker High west.
    The progression looks reasonable to me IMO.
     
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  43. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    looks solid
    [​IMG]
     
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  44. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I have quit looking at the surf forecasting now that the snow is here and more is coming …... I am XC ski mad!
     
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  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    and the 5/6
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  46. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Check the NW infeed into the stationary trough over WA
     
  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    System after system has been backed up on that High.
     
  48. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Queens Birthday Weekend is shaping up to be the best since 2000 (or even better) going by those charts.
     
  49. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    It looks like there are all the ingredients with a NW moisture infeed over the SIO.

    Moisture, deep cold node, cold temperatures.

    This period is going to big IMO.
    As big as this week, if not bigger.
     
  50. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Reading your prediction with optimism @Jellybeans :thumbs:

    I’m not saying here..........just pondering season starts for no good reason....Often go back to the 1960’s period for a bit of a fun benchmark.