Predictions 3rd - 7th June Consolidator

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, May 27, 2019.

  1. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC windshear plots look a bit unrealistic imo. Lots of confluence in stalled mode down below Gippsland 2nd- 3rd . Perhaps struggling with parcel Dilation scenario data ?
     
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The system on Monday may be 'locked in' to pass through the SE, but to what scenario is easily argued.

    Vastly different scenarios to how it passes Bass Strait/Tasmania at this point, which determines the difference between 10 and 30 cents.
    EC going more frontal, GFS favoring more cut-off. Is it any wonder BoM aren't into it, yet.
     
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yeh, I'm not sure what it will bring. Could be 5-10cm or could be 30cm.
    Does look to favour Baw Baw.
     
  4. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Temps at least seem pretty convincing (Bom going for - 4 max for Hotham on Monday). Worst case seems to be a 10 cents top up on an already cracking pre-opening base and ongoing good snowmaking conditions. I'll take that...
     
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just don't look at EC 00z run then.;)

    ...Unless of course you're a one-eyed Baw Baw skier.
     
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  6. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Baw who?
     
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  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    After the latest EC run, it leaves me thinking we might just get skunked here.

    ...meanwhile, AXS-G has progged Tuesday is bin day in Gippsland
     
  8. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 500 hPa temp plots after 4pm Monday seem odd. The secondary cold core takes a little jig to the North West over Gippsland . Not convinced.
     
  9. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM for Monday
    Central Tablelands area
    Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers in the south, slight (30%) chance elsewhere. Snow possible above 800 metres. Winds westerly 25 to 35 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 1 and 5 with daytime temperatures reaching between 6 and 12.
     
  10. Big_Red_60

    Big_Red_60 Addicted

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    I'll take that!
     
  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS holding strong on the 06z run, leaving little clue to the divergence on Monday night, Tuesday AM.
    Ben Lommond tips it's hat to this run.
    [​IMG]
     
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Positioning of that low is critical.
    The difference of a bit of hook around Tasmania to drier rain-shadow is very small.
     
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  13. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    The hook over Tassie is much sharper on GFS 6z, than EC 0z.
    The GFS starts earlier and given more freedom to strengthen over Tassie, allowing it to be more of a SW.
    The AXS is interesting given that the low is right off the NSW coast. Would be an absolute cracker if it went off.
     
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  14. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Less hook morning runs.
    Looks more a 10cm baw baw event to me
     
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  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah looking more like the development of the low will be well offshore in Tasman. Probably.
    ~5cm event here for the majors now, IMO.
     
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  16. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Had a feeling this system would be a flopper.....follow ups especially after such a large scale event like we've had this week, rarely deliver IMO

    The models can be real c#$k teases when it comes to follow up systems, been burnt a few times before on 'em....
     
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  17. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I like what I'm seeing on AXSR
     
  18. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS-R vs EC
     
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  19. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    scrub that post LOL
    I didn't look at the model run times
     
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  20. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Low is further west on AXSR
     
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  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    It's not dead yet, but slipping away IMO
     
  22. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Jane has downgraded but it’s still cold and 10 cents seems likely. Hard to be glum about that leading into opening weekend...
     
  23. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Nice south west fetch, Baw Baw to
    Saddle up and go again imo
    10-20 cents
     
  24. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear One of Us

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    I will be there..
     
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  25. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Trough still there but as mentioned trending east a bit too fast. Hard work for fighting a 1039 high...
     
  26. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I reckon 15-20 cm for Perisher
    Bit more for Thredbo
     
  27. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    This is the period of he heaviest precip for NSW
     
  28. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  29. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    Geez the NTs do well
     
  30. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    Monday NSW CT’s 700M!
     
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  31. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Bom has pulled right back for VIC (Hotham at least)...
     
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  32. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Was to be expected.
    The major Vic resorts will be lucky to get 5cm out of this.
     
  33. Ijay

    Ijay Hard Yards Ski Pass: Silver

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    For what it's worth the current B Met 4 dayer is a great chart for this time of year. No blocking high over the Tasman Sea as is common about now. Instead a good High over the Bight delivering winds from the SW quarter, with what's already on the ground it looks OK to me.
     
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  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO closer to 10cm for Hotham & Falls, a tad more for Baw Baw (although it appears damp initially there).
    Buller will struggle to get 5cm.
     
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  35. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah BB can do well here.
    Falls and Hotham on the account on EC 00z, could do better than the above. It’s progging 20cm+ on a SE origin wind (ie not in Tassie rain shadow). 10-15cm is workable IMO.

    The big problem is that GFS and EC still don’t agree on the winds. Until we get that, we are really forecasting blind.

    GFS will give some love for Thredbo and to a lesser extent Perisher, with a straight southerly.
    But not for Falls and Hotham.
    Based on EC and initial runs of AXS-R, the backend looks really good for the NSW resorts, and to a lesser extent Falls and Hotham.
     
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  36. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    OCF 10am Mon - 10am Tues:

    Seems to favour EC/AXS over GFS/GEM. Tomorrow, you would want to see some movement on the GFS winds to the SE.
     
  37. Arne

    Arne One of Us

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    Up slope southerly for Thredbo is not always good unless it's wet and sticks. Rips straight up and over into the Snowy river and takes some extra base with it. Ive seen 50cm of heavy dense to the valley floor in a southerly and on other occasions 5cms of cold snow take an extra 10-15cms base away. And you can't even ski down hill with the wind in your face.
     
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  38. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ripped from FB. Penrith Storm Chasing.
     
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  39. tomtankman

    tomtankman Addicted

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    12Z runs have the Tasman low closer to the coast on Monday. If they hold for the 00Z then we could still receive over 20cm.
    The low being close to coast is really the only chance of big falls from this next system since the winds are southerly rather than the more productive westerly or northwesterly. Also note the 15 to 20mm below on the Oberon Plateau - its all post frontal under the upper trough.
     
  40. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    No hotlinks of WZ charts...
     
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  41. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    With the air flow coming from off the coast lower BMs will have a really good chance. AXS-R showing pretty decent falls in the CTs. May be another Vic Pass event.
     
  42. Snowmaker7

    Snowmaker7 One of Us

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    yr.no forecast for here (Bowral, 680m) showing heaps of moisture and even some snow for here which doesn't show up too often. Robertson further east on the Illawarra escarpment has even more moisture. Very similar to the July 2015 event which brought a decent amount of snow to here. Anyone have any input of whether I might see a few flakes in the Southern Highlands or even on Mount Gibraltar (870m) on Monday night? Love seeing snow up here, considering its becoming a bit of a rarity !

     
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  43. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I've got a appointment up on high Range Monday...
    Brrrr
     
  44. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    According to yr.no it’s still on at Thredbo



    30 cm if that’s to be believed
     
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  45. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    25-ish mm progged for Buller on YR.
     
  46. Lifes2good

    Lifes2good One of Us

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  47. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  48. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  49. Lifes2good

    Lifes2good One of Us

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    Che?
     
  50. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Gee. Sus.

    AXSR has gone all in.
     
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