1. The Weather Forum has been re-arranged

    Find all the Day to Day threads in Daily & Chat - - There are now four main 'food groups' with no geo-based criteria. Please take note of the descriptions for clarification.

    This notice may be closed | Discussion about these changes
    Dismiss Notice
  2. Coronavirus #StayHome

    Official Advice

    - People in Australia must stay at least 1.5 metres away from others and gatherings are limited to two people unless you are with your family or household.
    - If you believe you may have contracted the virus, call your doctor (don’t visit) or contact the national Coronavirus Health Information Hotline on 1800 020 080.
    - If you are struggling to breathe or experiencing a medical emergency, call 000.

    Information Resources Mental Health Note: This announcement may be closed & This announcement will be reset every few days.
    Dismiss Notice

Predictions 3rd - 7th June Consolidator

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, May 27, 2019.

  1. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    18,302
    Likes Received:
    19,220
    Location:
    Canberra
    EC windshear plots look a bit unrealistic imo. Lots of confluence in stalled mode down below Gippsland 2nd- 3rd . Perhaps struggling with parcel Dilation scenario data ?
     
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,937
    Likes Received:
    24,306
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    The system on Monday may be 'locked in' to pass through the SE, but to what scenario is easily argued.

    Vastly different scenarios to how it passes Bass Strait/Tasmania at this point, which determines the difference between 10 and 30 cents.
    EC going more frontal, GFS favoring more cut-off. Is it any wonder BoM aren't into it, yet.
     
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    117,631
    Likes Received:
    57,612
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Yeh, I'm not sure what it will bring. Could be 5-10cm or could be 30cm.
    Does look to favour Baw Baw.
     
  4. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2016
    Messages:
    292
    Likes Received:
    378
    Temps at least seem pretty convincing (Bom going for - 4 max for Hotham on Monday). Worst case seems to be a 10 cents top up on an already cracking pre-opening base and ongoing good snowmaking conditions. I'll take that...
     
    cornice11 and POW_hungry like this.
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,937
    Likes Received:
    24,306
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Just don't look at EC 00z run then.;)

    ...Unless of course you're a one-eyed Baw Baw skier.
     
    bywong_yuki and Claude Cat like this.
  6. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2016
    Messages:
    292
    Likes Received:
    378
    Baw who?
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,937
    Likes Received:
    24,306
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    After the latest EC run, it leaves me thinking we might just get skunked here.

    ...meanwhile, AXS-G has progged Tuesday is bin day in Gippsland
     
  8. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    18,302
    Likes Received:
    19,220
    Location:
    Canberra
    EC 500 hPa temp plots after 4pm Monday seem odd. The secondary cold core takes a little jig to the North West over Gippsland . Not convinced.
     
  9. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2006
    Messages:
    16,190
    Likes Received:
    28,076
    Location:
    Blue Mtns, 1100M.
    BOM for Monday
    Central Tablelands area
    Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers in the south, slight (30%) chance elsewhere. Snow possible above 800 metres. Winds westerly 25 to 35 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 1 and 5 with daytime temperatures reaching between 6 and 12.
     
  10. Big_Red_60

    Big_Red_60 One of Us

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2018
    Messages:
    231
    Likes Received:
    414
    Location:
    TAMBO UPPER
    I'll take that!
     
  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,937
    Likes Received:
    24,306
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    GFS holding strong on the 06z run, leaving little clue to the divergence on Monday night, Tuesday AM.
    Ben Lommond tips it's hat to this run.
    [​IMG]
     
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    117,631
    Likes Received:
    57,612
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Positioning of that low is critical.
    The difference of a bit of hook around Tasmania to drier rain-shadow is very small.
     
    nfip and Jellybeans like this.
  13. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    9,515
    Likes Received:
    12,547
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    The hook over Tassie is much sharper on GFS 6z, than EC 0z.
    The GFS starts earlier and given more freedom to strengthen over Tassie, allowing it to be more of a SW.
    The AXS is interesting given that the low is right off the NSW coast. Would be an absolute cracker if it went off.
     
    SMSkier and Claude Cat like this.
  14. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,839
    Likes Received:
    10,586
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    Less hook morning runs.
    Looks more a 10cm baw baw event to me
     
    Baw Baw Bear likes this.
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,937
    Likes Received:
    24,306
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Yeah looking more like the development of the low will be well offshore in Tasman. Probably.
    ~5cm event here for the majors now, IMO.
     
    skiflat and Claude Cat like this.
  16. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    6,000
    Likes Received:
    3,367
    Location:
    Wollongong
    Had a feeling this system would be a flopper.....follow ups especially after such a large scale event like we've had this week, rarely deliver IMO

    The models can be real c#$k teases when it comes to follow up systems, been burnt a few times before on 'em....
     
    The Plowking likes this.
  17. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    35,109
    Likes Received:
    32,640
    Location:
    woonona
    I like what I'm seeing on AXSR
     
  18. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    35,109
    Likes Received:
    32,640
    Location:
    woonona
    AXS-R vs EC
     
    nfip likes this.
  19. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    35,109
    Likes Received:
    32,640
    Location:
    woonona
    scrub that post LOL
    I didn't look at the model run times
     
    The Plowking likes this.
  20. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    35,109
    Likes Received:
    32,640
    Location:
    woonona


    Low is further west on AXSR
     
    snowblowa likes this.
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    117,631
    Likes Received:
    57,612
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    It's not dead yet, but slipping away IMO
     
  22. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2016
    Messages:
    292
    Likes Received:
    378
    Jane has downgraded but it’s still cold and 10 cents seems likely. Hard to be glum about that leading into opening weekend...
     
  23. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2010
    Messages:
    950
    Likes Received:
    489
    Nice south west fetch, Baw Baw to
    Saddle up and go again imo
    10-20 cents
     
  24. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2003
    Messages:
    472
    Likes Received:
    442
    Location:
    Melbourne, Baw Baw
    I will be there..
     
    Wardy, DiscoStuAU, Jacko4650 and 2 others like this.
  25. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2016
    Messages:
    292
    Likes Received:
    378
    Trough still there but as mentioned trending east a bit too fast. Hard work for fighting a 1039 high...
     
  26. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    35,109
    Likes Received:
    32,640
    Location:
    woonona
    I reckon 15-20 cm for Perisher
    Bit more for Thredbo
     
  27. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    35,109
    Likes Received:
    32,640
    Location:
    woonona
    This is the period of he heaviest precip for NSW
     
  28. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    35,109
    Likes Received:
    32,640
    Location:
    woonona
  29. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2000
    Messages:
    10,767
    Likes Received:
    781
    Location:
    Jimi on Weatherzone. Killara, Sydney
    Geez the NTs do well
     
  30. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2006
    Messages:
    16,190
    Likes Received:
    28,076
    Location:
    Blue Mtns, 1100M.
    Monday NSW CT’s 700M!
     
    SMSkier and Ted Harper like this.
  31. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2016
    Messages:
    292
    Likes Received:
    378
    Bom has pulled right back for VIC (Hotham at least)...
     
    Jacko4650 likes this.
  32. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    9,515
    Likes Received:
    12,547
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Was to be expected.
    The major Vic resorts will be lucky to get 5cm out of this.
     
  33. Ijay

    Ijay Hard Yards Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    May 20, 2000
    Messages:
    917
    Likes Received:
    59
    Location:
    Wandella 2550
    For what it's worth the current B Met 4 dayer is a great chart for this time of year. No blocking high over the Tasman Sea as is common about now. Instead a good High over the Bight delivering winds from the SW quarter, with what's already on the ground it looks OK to me.
     
    Jacko4650 likes this.
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    117,631
    Likes Received:
    57,612
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    IMO closer to 10cm for Hotham & Falls, a tad more for Baw Baw (although it appears damp initially there).
    Buller will struggle to get 5cm.
     
    SMSkier likes this.
  35. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    9,515
    Likes Received:
    12,547
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Yeah BB can do well here.
    Falls and Hotham on the account on EC 00z, could do better than the above. It’s progging 20cm+ on a SE origin wind (ie not in Tassie rain shadow). 10-15cm is workable IMO.

    The big problem is that GFS and EC still don’t agree on the winds. Until we get that, we are really forecasting blind.

    GFS will give some love for Thredbo and to a lesser extent Perisher, with a straight southerly.
    But not for Falls and Hotham.
    Based on EC and initial runs of AXS-R, the backend looks really good for the NSW resorts, and to a lesser extent Falls and Hotham.
     
    skiflat, rocketboy, Donzah and 2 others like this.
  36. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    9,515
    Likes Received:
    12,547
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    OCF 10am Mon - 10am Tues:

    Seems to favour EC/AXS over GFS/GEM. Tomorrow, you would want to see some movement on the GFS winds to the SE.
     
  37. Arne

    Arne One of Us

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2011
    Messages:
    701
    Likes Received:
    958
    Location:
    Northern Beaches
    Up slope southerly for Thredbo is not always good unless it's wet and sticks. Rips straight up and over into the Snowy river and takes some extra base with it. Ive seen 50cm of heavy dense to the valley floor in a southerly and on other occasions 5cms of cold snow take an extra 10-15cms base away. And you can't even ski down hill with the wind in your face.
     
    cornice11 likes this.
  38. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2006
    Messages:
    16,190
    Likes Received:
    28,076
    Location:
    Blue Mtns, 1100M.

    Ripped from FB. Penrith Storm Chasing.
     
    Snow Blowey likes this.
  39. tomtankman

    tomtankman Addicted

    Joined:
    May 12, 2003
    Messages:
    261
    Likes Received:
    142
    Location:
    Sydney


    12Z runs have the Tasman low closer to the coast on Monday. If they hold for the 00Z then we could still receive over 20cm.
    The low being close to coast is really the only chance of big falls from this next system since the winds are southerly rather than the more productive westerly or northwesterly. Also note the 15 to 20mm below on the Oberon Plateau - its all post frontal under the upper trough.
     
  40. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    35,109
    Likes Received:
    32,640
    Location:
    woonona
    No hotlinks of WZ charts...
     
    johnski likes this.
  41. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    23,129
    Likes Received:
    16,098
    Location:
    Dubbo NSW

    With the air flow coming from off the coast lower BMs will have a really good chance. AXS-R showing pretty decent falls in the CTs. May be another Vic Pass event.
     
  42. Snowmaker7

    Snowmaker7 One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2013
    Messages:
    204
    Likes Received:
    465
    Location:
    Bowral, NSW
    yr.no forecast for here (Bowral, 680m) showing heaps of moisture and even some snow for here which doesn't show up too often. Robertson further east on the Illawarra escarpment has even more moisture. Very similar to the July 2015 event which brought a decent amount of snow to here. Anyone have any input of whether I might see a few flakes in the Southern Highlands or even on Mount Gibraltar (870m) on Monday night? Love seeing snow up here, considering its becoming a bit of a rarity !

     
    Ted Harper, SMSkier and Claude Cat like this.
  43. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    35,109
    Likes Received:
    32,640
    Location:
    woonona
    I've got a appointment up on high Range Monday...
    Brrrr
     
  44. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2014
    Messages:
    9,181
    Likes Received:
    17,340
    Location:
    Canberra, ACT
    According to yr.no it’s still on at Thredbo



    30 cm if that’s to be believed
     
    Lifes2good likes this.
  45. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 12, 2000
    Messages:
    77,069
    Likes Received:
    43,850
    Location:
    Les Hautes Montagnes
    25-ish mm progged for Buller on YR.
     
  46. Lifes2good

    Lifes2good One of Us

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2012
    Messages:
    554
    Likes Received:
    696
    Location:
    Sydney, Aust
    Ret-ro likes this.
  47. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    35,109
    Likes Received:
    32,640
    Location:
    woonona
  48. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    35,109
    Likes Received:
    32,640
    Location:
    woonona
  49. Lifes2good

    Lifes2good One of Us

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2012
    Messages:
    554
    Likes Received:
    696
    Location:
    Sydney, Aust
    Che?
     
  50. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    35,109
    Likes Received:
    32,640
    Location:
    woonona
    Gee. Sus.

    AXSR has gone all in.
     
    Gregah likes this.