Predictions 3rd - 7th June Consolidator

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, May 27, 2019.

  1. Snowmaker7

    Snowmaker7 One of Us

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    GFS this arvo is looking like a Jindy special
     
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Baw Baw be nuked.
     
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  3. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS today:

    Onboard with what EC has been on for a while.
    It be...

    Love the SE scoop around on that low.
     
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  4. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    Blackheath Weather is starting to get excited.
    He doesn’t often get excited!
     
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  5. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    I really hope this Baw Baw place gets some.
     
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  6. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Not AXS-R better, but better...
     
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  7. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    I’ll go 10-20cm for Falls/Hotham
    15-25cm for Perisher and Thredbo (Thredbo higher than Perisher.
    Buller 5-10cm.
     
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  8. Ozgirl

    Ozgirl A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    So ah - i am in Melbourne tomorrow through Thursday.

    Rug up?
     
  9. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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  10. ecowain

    ecowain One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I anticipate that my students are unexcited about the prospect of hanging about on cliffs in the upper blue mtns doing some vertical rescue Monday thru Wednesday. I observe that I'm excited, because it might be of an alpine character and good for their toughness...

    I forecast that my skis are prepped to ski to work if required.

    Heavy overcast skies in the upper BMs tonight, with BoM forecasting thunderstorms in the region tomorrow, then thunderstorms and snow above 700m Monday onwards.
     
  11. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer Addicted

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    This could mean snow in two Ben Lomond's in Australia
     
  12. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    Renitz Pass?
    From the front door!
     
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  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC has backed off numbers this afternoon.
     
  14. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  15. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    That July 15 snowfall was fantastic for Thredbo and the Leatherbarrel area.
     
  16. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

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    I wouldn’t consider Thredbo higher than Some of Perisher ..1900 m .. good average through the upper part of both resorts so they tend to get the same , except Thredbo is exposed to the SE flow andmay get more then .. that could occur here . Either way fingers crossed , need to see some development tomorrow
     
  17. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    I meant the totals are higher, not elevation.
     
  18. Rat trap bindings

    Rat trap bindings One of Us

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    Pretty quite in here. What say Ye weather gurus.. looks like Vicky is due for more than Cockroach Country.
     
  19. Ozgirl

    Ozgirl A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    So on the way to the airport the Uber has WS fm on and the announcer (not news/weather segment) spoke abou this coming system and how Perisher opened early and that “Thredbo didn’t change their opening day from the traditional long weekend”
     
  20. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Scenario is very interesting.
    I like the look of those tinderries.
     
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  21. Rat trap bindings

    Rat trap bindings One of Us

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    Aha... them Tinderries.. My stamping ground and the first observation we all look for on the left, heading south...
     
  22. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  23. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Quick to work its way through but good westward penetration. Not a clipper.
     
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  24. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks crazy in AXSR and GFS
     
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Doesn't look so cold on GFS?
     
  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Troughing through the backdoor looks very fruitful tomorrow night around 9pm.
    Yep. AXS-R is bananas.
    Thredbo is at high risk of a special.
     
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cold enough, for the most part.
     
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  28. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Upper low looks cold
     
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  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    850 hpa temps a little on the warm side but 500 hpa look ok.
     
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  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  32. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    This arvos charts are scary good
     
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  33. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS FV3 850hPa temp 7am Monday
     
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  34. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A bit of warm advection after midday for a few hours though.
     
  35. Tanuki

    Tanuki A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cold and went in St Kilda East.
     
  36. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS’ Baw Baw happy hour:


    And the Thredbo Holy Hour:


    Temps look fine on EC for about 1500m.
    A little less precipitation on EC, compared to GFS.
    But it is to be expected modelling an event like this.
    Good news is that they both have the SE hook around.
     
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  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS-R 850mb temps, on the 'resort bubble' @10pm Monday, during the heavy gear.
    Easily just enough with some cold upper level temps (and good convergence), as you say CC.
    Snow to ~1100m tomorrow night IMO.
     
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  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM's excited for Thredders. I am back into it for a Thredbo special:
     
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  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Vic BoM using the B word in Buller's local forecast....
     
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  40. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    A bit of surprise with the Bureau giving a little more to Hotham than Thredbo:
     
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  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    And Baw Baw a red hot target tomorrow AM. BoM pretty much suggesting AXS-R figures.
     
  42. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    That is quite incredible.
    Hope they have their snorkels ready.
     
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  43. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Holy Jumpin . . . .
     
  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The passage of 850mb shear through central/Eastern Vic, looks sustained. Feeding it.
    [​IMG]
     
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  45. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Best to stay away from backcountry travel tomorrow, with the heavy winds forecast, and the blizzard word being used.

    Rug up in the resorts too if out skiing, and take care on the roads.

    This is the springboard the other three majors need to have a big opening.
    And the springboard that Perisher in particular and Buller as well need to open up more terrain.

    QBW is looking to feature ridiculously good cover for this time of year IMO.
     
  46. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Hats off to POW (I think) who was the one to call this as a "Baw Baw Special" a few days ago.
     
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  47. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Botany Bay on Tuesday :eek: YR throwing out 19 M/S Gale force winds. A rather potentialy wet outlook for the East Coast imo.
     
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  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ha! Cheers, but I think @Claude Cat beat me to that one.
     
  49. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Barrington Tops Snow Chasers should get some love imo. 10 cm not out of the question. A Bit around Armidale too.