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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, May 27, 2019.
GFS this arvo is looking like a Jindy special
Baw Baw be nuked.
Onboard with what EC has been on for a while.
Love the SE scoop around on that low.
Blackheath Weather is starting to get excited.
He doesn’t often get excited!
I really hope this Baw Baw place gets some.
Not AXS-R better, but better...
I’ll go 10-20cm for Falls/Hotham
15-25cm for Perisher and Thredbo (Thredbo higher than Perisher.
So ah - i am in Melbourne tomorrow through Thursday.
I anticipate that my students are unexcited about the prospect of hanging about on cliffs in the upper blue mtns doing some vertical rescue Monday thru Wednesday. I observe that I'm excited, because it might be of an alpine character and good for their toughness...
I forecast that my skis are prepped to ski to work if required.
Heavy overcast skies in the upper BMs tonight, with BoM forecasting thunderstorms in the region tomorrow, then thunderstorms and snow above 700m Monday onwards.
This could mean snow in two Ben Lomond's in Australia
From the front door!
EC has backed off numbers this afternoon.
That July 15 snowfall was fantastic for Thredbo and the Leatherbarrel area.
I wouldn’t consider Thredbo higher than Some of Perisher ..1900 m .. good average through the upper part of both resorts so they tend to get the same , except Thredbo is exposed to the SE flow andmay get more then .. that could occur here . Either way fingers crossed , need to see some development tomorrow
I meant the totals are higher, not elevation.
Pretty quite in here. What say Ye weather gurus.. looks like Vicky is due for more than Cockroach Country.
So on the way to the airport the Uber has WS fm on and the announcer (not news/weather segment) spoke abou this coming system and how Perisher opened early and that “Thredbo didn’t change their opening day from the traditional long weekend”
Scenario is very interesting.
I like the look of those tinderries.
Aha... them Tinderries.. My stamping ground and the first observation we all look for on the left, heading south...
Quick to work its way through but good westward penetration. Not a clipper.
Looks crazy in AXSR and GFS
Doesn't look so cold on GFS?
Troughing through the backdoor looks very fruitful tomorrow night around 9pm.
Yep. AXS-R is bananas.
Thredbo is at high risk of a special.
Cold enough, for the most part.
Upper low looks cold
850 hpa temps a little on the warm side but 500 hpa look ok.
This arvos charts are scary good
GFS FV3 850hPa temp 7am Monday
A bit of warm advection after midday for a few hours though.
Cold and went in St Kilda East.
GFS’ Baw Baw happy hour:
And the Thredbo Holy Hour:
Temps look fine on EC for about 1500m.
A little less precipitation on EC, compared to GFS.
But it is to be expected modelling an event like this.
Good news is that they both have the SE hook around.
AXS-R 850mb temps, on the 'resort bubble' @10pm Monday, during the heavy gear.
Easily just enough with some cold upper level temps (and good convergence), as you say CC.
Snow to ~1100m tomorrow night IMO.
BoM's excited for Thredders. I am back into it for a Thredbo special:
Vic BoM using the B word in Buller's local forecast....
A bit of surprise with the Bureau giving a little more to Hotham than Thredbo:
And Baw Baw a red hot target tomorrow AM. BoM pretty much suggesting AXS-R figures.
That is quite incredible.
Hope they have their snorkels ready.
Holy Jumpin . . . .
The passage of 850mb shear through central/Eastern Vic, looks sustained. Feeding it.
Best to stay away from backcountry travel tomorrow, with the heavy winds forecast, and the blizzard word being used.
Rug up in the resorts too if out skiing, and take care on the roads.
This is the springboard the other three majors need to have a big opening.
And the springboard that Perisher in particular and Buller as well need to open up more terrain.
QBW is looking to feature ridiculously good cover for this time of year IMO.
Hats off to POW (I think) who was the one to call this as a "Baw Baw Special" a few days ago.
Botany Bay on Tuesday YR throwing out 19 M/S Gale force winds. A rather potentialy wet outlook for the East Coast imo.
Ha! Cheers, but I think @Claude Cat beat me to that one.
Barrington Tops Snow Chasers should get some love imo. 10 cm not out of the question. A Bit around Armidale too.