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Predictions 3rd - 7th June Consolidator

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, May 27, 2019.

  1. bengarden

    bengarden Addicted

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    Snow cover and terrain open might be good for QBW but temps look decidedly above average maxs for Thursday onwards....8,7,8 for Perisher. Not sure I'll want to ski the slush with the crowds yet.......
     
  2. derwent

    derwent One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Tank dam and stream filling totals for all gippsland tomorrow :thumbs:
     
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  3. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Those temps are incorrect.
    As they often are on bom for beyond 72hrs.
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 00z going for the bullseye around The Dargo High plains tomorrow eve.
     
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  5. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Wow Baw Baw(and a lot of places through the gippsland rangers) could potentially receive some massive snowfall and down to around 900-1000m possibly! IMO
     
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  6. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep. EC Rapid has had the hots for Hotham in the last 2 runs
     
  7. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Meteye



    BoM - Snowy Mtn



    DaBo

     
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  8. beefa skiing

    beefa skiing Early Days

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    BOM 30mm-80mm Monday for Baw Baw, snow above 1000m. Now that is some serious puckage.

    Even LM is not looking so bad with 10mm-30mm, again snow about 1000m.
     
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  9. Gregah

    Gregah Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Given the relatively unusual SE feed on this one do you rate EC over the usually reliable AXR at this range? (I have a massive vested interest - am going to Hotham this weekend and unlikely to visit Baw Baw this season!)
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO the cold air runs through Vicco's Central-West, so the 'snow above 1000m' will happen at times but expect a quick hit. Don't go expecting 20-30cm to 1000m. Won't happen with fluctuating marginal 850 temps the way they are...
     
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  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    20-30cm for Hotham tonight through Tuesday IMO.
     
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  12. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    You can't really compare the two. AXS R is much smaller scale (tighter grid squares for the model). This allows it to model terrain better = better rainfall prediction for the mountains.
     
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  13. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    At this range EC has the upper hand in shear flow- thermal wind balance scenarios through the layers imo.
     
  14. Dave Clark

    Dave Clark One of Us

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    I can't remember EVER seeing max 80mm precip as snow in a single day forecast from the BoM. Baw Baw I hope you have lots of supplies *hic* ... and for the dingoes of course ... see you in a few days if you're lucky!
     
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  15. Gregah

    Gregah Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    I was going to bluff my response with a "like" which would clearly infer I could keep up with you...but I'll just say thanks instead!
     
  16. Gregah

    Gregah Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    I've seen it in a forecast (and in actuality) as rain outside of winter, but no, I agree not as snow in winter.
     
  17. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Which is potentially why the BOM is giving it quite a bit.
     
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  18. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks to be a classic porridge dump. Was hoping for a first "powder day" on Tuesday. But I can't see it being cold enough at 1700m for more than glug. Maybe lots of it. Then again it might run out of puff by the time it gets to NSW and just deliver wind and mizzle.
     
  19. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    7am Tuesday-
     
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  20. bengarden

    bengarden Addicted

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    Hope so. skis will be packed in case...
     
  21. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I reckon a top of 2
     
  22. Winterwolf

    Winterwolf Early Days

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    This definitely looks like a snow in strange places type of thing. I am hoping we get some flakes in heavier showers here in Bowral early Tuesday. Big snow around Brown Mountain and Bombala on the cards.
     
  23. Gototakahashi

    Gototakahashi Hard Yards

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    Wish it was Buller too! Fingers crossed.
     
  24. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Buller will be lucky to grab much more than 10-15. Wrong side of the range for them unfortunately.
     
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  25. Snowmaker7

    Snowmaker7 One of Us

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    Im in Bowral too and I'm feeling hopeful of seeing some snow tomorrow night! Especially up on the Gib 200m higher than town. Yr.no still has some snow/sleet showers for late tomorrow night

     
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  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    yr.no hasn't updated this afternoon.
     
  27. Snowmaker7

    Snowmaker7 One of Us

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    Yeah I noticed that too, but I was just looking at the hourly forecast which is now in range to cover this event
     
  28. Gototakahashi

    Gototakahashi Hard Yards

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    JANE:

    Updated: Sunday night.

    SUNDAY NIGHT and MONDAY: A low crosses Bass Strait on Sunday night, before a deeper low forms off the southern NSW coast on Monday. This has good dose of cold air. Snow developing overnight, continuing through Monday, heavy at times. Gale force winds bring blizzard conditions.

    The moist air wraps around the Tasman low, so the snow will come up from the south (not in from the west). That means the heavier falls affect southern alpine areas. In theory, Mt Baw Baw does the best… but there could be a rain shadow through central Gippsland, thanks to the island’s off northeast Tasmania.

    Snow falling to around 900m. 10 to 30 cm, but the potential for 50 to 80 cm in the south.

    TUESDAY: Persistent snow over southern alps, slowly easing. Snow showers for the rest.

    Snow falling to 1200m, rising to 1500m. 0 to 10 cm.

    WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY: Slight chance of light snow, as the next high slowly comes in. Cloud lingering in the south, sunshine returning to the north.

    Snow only over higher alpine elevations. 0 to 1 cm.

    FRIDAY and SATURDAY: Glorious. Light winds and sunshine with the high overhead.

    The next weather system begins late Sunday.
     
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  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC/AXS-R progging an Illawarra coastal special tomorrow/Wednesday.
    Big precip numbers on offer, much of which is off the coast.
    Directional shear & instability is there for thunderstorms and possibly some left-movers.
     
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  30. Rat trap bindings

    Rat trap bindings One of Us

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    A significant downgrade over the last day in amounts ...for this dumb arse, what happened? Or is it just my comic strip images that I like as they are sometimes very pretty?
     
  31. Gregah

    Gregah Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    I believe Jane has the answer.
     
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  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    You're looking at the final product, but not how it gets there...
    Consider the variables, not the model run outcomes if you don't like disappointments.
     
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  33. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    The low heads easterly far sooner than it was forecast to yesterday.
     
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  34. Rat trap bindings

    Rat trap bindings One of Us

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    Thanks Snow Blowey for the answer. POW_hungry I wasn’t disappointed only that the reason I frequent the weather forums is to understand (Well try) what suttle changes in this inexact science of forecasting can effect. Also thanks Gregah for the other info..
    The only time I’ve been disappointed with a weather forecast was having to land out under a VFR flight, when it was really wrong. Another story.
     
  35. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mixing Ratios on EC Rapid ( Hourly plots) . Might be ok for Hotham/ Vicco resorts imo
     
  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Seemingly, you sound pretty disappointed to me.

    This thread was initially titled by me as 'moving target', I thought it was (and still is) an aptly named thread. Dunno why it was changed...
    In short, it's a cut-off low that spawns in Bass Strait and quickly tracks up the coast. The cold air and moisture of a cut-off system are very fluid and sometimes decoupled. Keep an eye on the MLSP chart to spot the moist airflow and watch the 500mb temps to track the cold air. Where these coincide, you're cooking with gas, so to speak.
    Unfortunately, the cold air is partly decoupled and goes straight up through Central Vic and moisture builds offshore and up the coast.

    IMO this whole event is actually looking very much like the 8-10th May system that disappointed many people on here.
     
    Rat trap bindings likes this.
  37. Gregah

    Gregah Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Looks like another trough has popped up on the 10:00am Tuesday forecast map. Wasn't there yesterday (post #174).
     
  38. Gregah

    Gregah Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Edit - here's today's...