Predictions 4-6th May 2022 - Early Sneaz'n Snot System

[POW Hungry]

Let's get this one started eh?
Predictions only. Stay on topic.
It's a trifecta of agreement to Thursday with EC, GFS & The Canuck having it on lock.
It's a 10-25cm fall for resort areas Wednesday through Friday, with snow down as low as 950m in Vic IMO.

GFS upper level 500mb Anom

EC going a little more slingshot:

 

[POW Hungry]

EC's broadscale push of 850mb temp (anom) across the Southern Continent.

 

[Donza]

My worry. Its a EC slingshot to Tamworth.

 

[Donza]

Does have a SISP vibe.

 

[Luken]

Does have a SISP vibe.

Must indicate best season since 2000!

 

[Donza]

Must indicate best season since 2000!

Reminds me of 1989

 

[POW Hungry]

SoT Snowfall courtesy of EC Ensembles, highlighting the 15-20cm likelihood in 99 quartile (very good odds):

 

[POW Hungry]

My worry. Its a EC slingshot to Tamworth.

IMO, EC is overcooking the amplitude. We haven't seen a jet-like this since September and not much has changed on paper. EC still on a wobble, I think.

 

[Kletterer]

Charlottes Pass

 

[Jellybeans]

Deterministic EC with 30-60cm for the resorts *if we see the Tasman low and cold air combine*

And yes, low level snow on the Monaro, around CBR, Crookwell and the Oberon shire.

You can see how the moisture is driven by tight pressure isobars wrapping around the low.

I’d reckon we will be looking at quite a few of these types of low pressure setups on the forecast this year.

GFS is basically EC dialled down a lot, towards a 10-25cm system that one is more accustomed to at this time of year. With no Tamworth slingshot and a weaker Tasman low.

EC is probably overplaying it’s hand, but there is still substantial potential for a lot more than a May dusting IMO.

 

[Boodwah]

These early season ECLs seem to be becoming more of a thing.

 

[POW Hungry]

UK Met:

 

[Jellybeans]

These early season ECLs seem to be becoming more of a thing.

We are going to have to get used to them this season.

 

[Kletterer]

 

[Mister Tee on XC Skis]

ECMWF . 29/04/22 1908 hours EST
Falls Creek.
14 cms by Friday at dawn is XC skiable.

 

[Mister Tee on XC Skis]

WZ are starting to froth a bit about this one.

Cold snap on the way in first week of May

Two cold fronts are about to sweep across southern and southeastern Australia, with the second front bringing a lengthy spell of wintry weather in the opening week of May. The satellite image below shows the sun rising over a cold air mass approaching southwestern Australia, indicated by the...

www.weatherzone.com.au

 

[Mister Tee on XC Skis]

BOM are seeing some snow falling at Falls Creek too. BOM are often quite reserved in their forecasts so there must be something in this.

 

[Mister Tee on XC Skis]

BOM are also predicting snow at Baw Baw.

 

[Mister Tee on XC Skis]

ECMWF
Mt. Baw Baw.
Could this be another Baw Baw special ?
We got 30 cms in 24 hours at Baw Baw in Nov.2021.

 

[Infinity Dawn]

Im keen to see what happens with this one, EC has been getting keen on this for a while now, im predicting around 30cm on the main range. Hopefully it sticks around and doesnt insta melt.

 

[Billy_Buttons]

Gun testing period.

 

[Claude Cat]

Ground cooler.

 

[Donza]

Ground cooler.

Will barely snow imo.
Tassie rainshadow

 

[POW Hungry]

Will barely snow imo.
Tassie rainshadow

GFS 06z tips its hat to you, sir.
But there's a shit tonne of cold air in it.

 

[lewis]

Yr.no for Perisher says roughly 50cm at 1720m. I'm assuming this data is from EC deterministic since it matches pretty perfectly.

 

[CarveMan]

Yr.no for Perisher says roughly 50cm at 1720m. I'm assuming this data is from EC deterministic since it matches pretty perfectly.

Yes yr is EC, I find it pretty good, I don't tend to delve next level in to charts and EC/Yr has done right for me over the last few years, I've done lots of planning based on it with very little fail.

 

[POW Hungry]

There’s very good agreement for a 10-20cm fall now IMO.
EC 12z

GFS 12z

The German ICON model going for the ultimate cut off hook which would put totals in the larger of the range.
ICON

 

[SMSkier]

There’s very good agreement for a 10-20cm fall now IMO.
EC 12z

GFS 12z

The German ICON model going for the ultimate cut off hook which would put totals in the larger of the range.
ICON

Any insights as to the follow up weather behind this?

 

[POW Hungry]

Any insights as to the follow up weather behind this?

In the date window? It's likely to cut off into the Tasman, won't hang around long past the 6th.
Outside of the window, I have mentioned in BBQ thread.

 

[Kletterer]

PV , Irrotational plots look wicked for Tassie. A system with such very tight Isothermic gradients makes it harder to lock in precise Advection though.

 

[Mister Tee on XC Skis]

ECMWF has been hopping into the mind expanding autumm fungi for sure now. That is frothing like none I have seen for a while.

 

[POW Hungry]

Banking on Determ model totals will almost always end in tears...

 

[Mister Tee on XC Skis]

The Pysch. nurse saw ECMWF was tripping too way hard :-0 and has administered a sedative. The latest ECMWF forecast seems a bit more realistic.

 

[Mister Tee on XC Skis]

BOM are sticking with this one for Falls Creek.

 

[Mister Tee on XC Skis]

BOM Still seem to have confidence that snow will fall at Mt. Baw Baw too. Mt. Baw Baw often benefits from SW cold fronts that come from Bass Strait.

 

[POW Hungry]

NSW BoM gently increasing possible precip figures for the backend of next week.
Buller/Baw Baw should do ok out of it on Thursday AM.

 

[rocketboy]

looking a bit lame on latest yr.no at 3:49pm

Weather forecast for Perisher Village

Today's weather forecast, by the hour and long term. See the forecast as a table or graph.

www.yr.no

Might surprise yet. Following week on GFS looks good for busting up the highs - and could turn out to be a May Storm good enough for first tracks.

and BOM is updated just now as well - looks to be snowy weekend

http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/thredbo.shtml

 

[POW Hungry]

EC00Z finding a little more hook:

 

[Donza]

EC00Z finding a little more hook:

Low in tasman.
Meh.
Tassie rain shadow and high pressure.

 

[POW Hungry]

Low in tasman.
Meh.
Tassie rain shadow and high pressure.

Won’t someone think of all that cold polar air.

 

[POW Hungry]

The breadth of the cold airmass over Victoria 1pm Thursday (GFS12Z), bringing with it snow possible to 800m (Vic):

 

[Kletterer]

EC - Ensembles are looking pretty solid this morning.

 

[Kelpieboy1]

Considering the position of the low I reckon 10 -15 cms at Perisher would be a good result. At the moment I just can't see the moisture tracking through. Plenty of cold air though so might finally get out of shorts and singlet - maybe the end of swimming season as well.

 

[Young Angus]

I don't care what it brings, I'm just pumped that the ball has started rolling for 2022

sounding delicious though for a nice entre

 

[nickxylophone]

GFS 00z has some pretty wild 3hr snow rates for some southern tassie peaks Friday morning with the positioning of that low, 20cm+. Too far out to be precise but would be pretty nuts if it did come off

 

[POW Hungry]

Impressive snowfall and cold air for NZ piggybacking this one too (10-13 May).
It's got snow to sea level on the GFS 00z run.

 

[Outlooker]

BOM have upped the totals for PV

 

[POW Hungry]

The breadth of the cold airmass over Victoria 1pm Thursday (GFS12Z), bringing with it snow possible to 800m (Vic).

BoM Vic going for snow above 900m Thursday.
They'll come round.

 

[POW Hungry]

4 day rule approaching. It's a 5cm, maybe 10cm system for me, now.
Ripper little curtain-raiser for May with an abundance of cold air!

 

[CarveMan]

4 day rule approaching. It's a 5cm, maybe 10cm system for me, now.
Ripper little curtain-raiser for May with an abundance of cold air!

White on the cams is all we need this time of year.

Though in 2020 I was skiing Bull Run first week of May!