Predictions 4-6th May 2022 - Early Sneaz'n Snot System

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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May 28, 2000
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Let's get this one started eh?
Predictions only. Stay on topic.
It's a trifecta of agreement to Thursday with EC, GFS & The Canuck having it on lock.
It's a 10-25cm fall for resort areas Wednesday through Friday, with snow down as low as 950m in Vic IMO.

GFS upper level 500mb Anom
1651219494420.png


EC going a little more slingshot:
1651219543612.png
 

Jellybeans

Part of the Furniture
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Aug 24, 2015
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Deterministic EC with 30-60cm for the resorts *if we see the Tasman low and cold air combine*
8D3D2689-FE1B-48F2-99F7-E05621934CA8.png


And yes, low level snow on the Monaro, around CBR, Crookwell and the Oberon shire.

You can see how the moisture is driven by tight pressure isobars wrapping around the low.
C58FD498-6C07-4867-8650-405A4295AB78.png


I’d reckon we will be looking at quite a few of these types of low pressure setups on the forecast this year.

GFS is basically EC dialled down a lot, towards a 10-25cm system that one is more accustomed to at this time of year. With no Tamworth slingshot and a weaker Tasman low.

EC is probably overplaying it’s hand, but there is still substantial potential for a lot more than a May dusting IMO.
 
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Mister Tee on XC Skis

Not your average unconventional eccentric.
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WZ are starting to froth a bit about this one.
 

Infinity Dawn

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Im keen to see what happens with this one, EC has been getting keen on this for a while now, im predicting around 30cm on the main range. Hopefully it sticks around and doesnt insta melt.
 
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CarveMan

Tremendous Slouch
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May 12, 2000
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Screen Shot 2022-04-29 at 10.09.09 pm.png

Yr.no for Perisher says roughly 50cm at 1720m. I'm assuming this data is from EC deterministic since it matches pretty perfectly.
Yes yr is EC, I find it pretty good, I don't tend to delve next level in to charts and EC/Yr has done right for me over the last few years, I've done lots of planning based on it with very little fail.
 

SMSkier

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Oct 4, 2016
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There’s very good agreement for a 10-20cm fall now IMO.
EC 12z
1651257493556.png


GFS 12z
1651257627125.png


The German ICON model going for the ultimate cut off hook which would put totals in the larger of the range.
ICON
1651257837798.png
Any insights as to the follow up weather behind this?
 

Kletterer

Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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PV , Irrotational plots look wicked for Tassie. A system with such very tight Isothermic gradients makes it harder to lock in precise Advection though.
 
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rocketboy

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Kelpieboy1

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Jan 3, 2022
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Considering the position of the low I reckon 10 -15 cms at Perisher would be a good result. At the moment I just can't see the moisture tracking through. Plenty of cold air though so might finally get out of shorts and singlet - maybe the end of swimming season as well.
 

nickxylophone

Hard Yards
Apr 23, 2017
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GFS 00z has some pretty wild 3hr snow rates for some southern tassie peaks Friday morning with the positioning of that low, 20cm+. Too far out to be precise but would be pretty nuts if it did come off
 
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