Predictions 4-6th May 2022 - Early Sneaz'n Snot System

Kletterer

Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
Moderator
Ski Pass
Nov 26, 2014
24,897
31,306
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Canberra
. Good moisture feeding the DGZ in the back end . Not the greatest shear instability but enough to surpass 10 cm - system total imo .
modez_20220507_1500_animation.gif
 
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janesweather

One of Us
Apr 7, 2011
148
944
263
Melbourne, Victoria
www.janebunn.net
Hey everyone,

Thought I'd give an update on what the data is showing at https://janesweather.com/forecast/graph

I'm terribly disappointed that we haven't been able to get it ready in time for this round of snow :emoji_confounded:

Currently these are the elevations the resorts are showing data from:
Buller: USA 1063m, CAN 813m, AUST 948m
Falls: USA 1034m, CAN 1063m, AUST 1195m
Hotham: USA 1329m, CAN 1063m, AUST 1332m
Baw Baw: USA 928m, CAN 555m, AUST 811m
Thredbo: USA 1316m, CAN 1165m, AUST 1296m
Perisher: USA 1276m, CAN 1165m, AUST 1464m
Charlotte: USA 1316m, CAN 1165m, AUST 1282m

and how bad is Dinner Plain: USA 76m, CAN 85m, AUST 43m :mad:

Woefully lower than where they need to be.

But.. our lovely data scientist Alex has passed the first round of code to fix the elevations to our dev Dave, but it has issues and so he should have that in production tomorrow.

That new code will change the elevation to:
Buller: 1700m
Falls: 1800m
Hotham: 1750m
Baw Baw: 1550m
Dinner Plain: 1550m
Thredbo: 1957m
Perisher: 1800m
Charlotte: 1760m
(and about 10 other peaks in NSW, VIC and TAS)

It will then change the temperature adiabatically to match the new elevation. But at the moment it is only a dry adiabatic calculation, so when we have wet weather/snow/high humidity, temperatures may show as much as 5C colder than reality.

So, we're going from all too warm to partially too cold, but at least it will show snow for now.
The next update will have the correct calculations to account for all types of air.

Sorry that is not ready now - but we are a tiny team until we get more funding - and we are going as quickly as we can.

Alerts will be our next thing pushed out (and there will be snow alerts in there, for whatever location you choose! Anything you want that we have the data for), and when we get funding for EC that will join the consensus too. Then forecast maps (with snow levels really clearly spelled out so everyone can understand them), all the now stuff (satellite, radar, all obs etc) and long range.

In the meantime, Euro is still at janebunn.net (and yr.no), but do keep the following in mind:
- 5:30am only the short forecast is updated with 12Z data, the long term (days 3 onwards) remains 00Z, ie yesterday's data
- 9:30am the long term finally gets updated, so they are all from 12Z.
11:30am the short term updates to 18Z.
and the same at 5:30pm and 9:30pm with the 00Z run and 06Z short run.
I have asked and begged met.no to change this back to what they used to do but they won't do it. At least the update times are less flaky than before - but do note you are not comparing apples with apples.

And.. if you weren't aware, BoM only do a 'real' forecast update each day at 4:30pm. Based on the 12Z run from the morning. The 5am issue doesn't amend anything from 'tomorrow' onwards no matter what has changed. They will leave snow on there/no snow even if none of the models like it anymore. So, if you are looking at a BoM forecast at 4pm, do be aware it's based on the info from 6am yesterday.

Any questions please ask. Any suggestions for what we can do better, please let me know.

Screen Shot 2022-05-04 at 2.26.43 pm.png
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
25,180
43,721
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
Hey everyone,

Thought I'd give an update on what the data is showing at https://janesweather.com/forecast/graph

I'm terribly disappointed that we haven't been able to get it ready in time for this round of snow :emoji_confounded:

Currently these are the elevations the resorts are showing data from:
Buller: USA 1063m, CAN 813m, AUST 948m
Falls: USA 1034m, CAN 1063m, AUST 1195m
Hotham: USA 1329m, CAN 1063m, AUST 1332m
Baw Baw: USA 928m, CAN 555m, AUST 811m
Thredbo: USA 1316m, CAN 1165m, AUST 1296m
Perisher: USA 1276m, CAN 1165m, AUST 1464m
Charlotte: USA 1316m, CAN 1165m, AUST 1282m

and how bad is Dinner Plain: USA 76m, CAN 85m, AUST 43m :mad:

Woefully lower than where they need to be.

But.. our lovely data scientist Alex has passed the first round of code to fix the elevations to our dev Dave, but it has issues and so he should have that in production tomorrow.

That new code will change the elevation to:
Buller: 1700m
Falls: 1800m
Hotham: 1750m
Baw Baw: 1550m
Dinner Plain: 1550m
Thredbo: 1957m
Perisher: 1800m
Charlotte: 1760m
(and about 10 other peaks in NSW, VIC and TAS)

It will then change the temperature adiabatically to match the new elevation. But at the moment it is only a dry adiabatic calculation, so when we have wet weather/snow/high humidity, temperatures may show as much as 5C colder than reality.

So, we're going from all too warm to partially too cold, but at least it will show snow for now.
The next update will have the correct calculations to account for all types of air.

Sorry that is not ready now - but we are a tiny team until we get more funding - and we are going as quickly as we can.

Alerts will be our next thing pushed out (and there will be snow alerts in there, for whatever location you choose! Anything you want that we have the data for), and when we get funding for EC that will join the consensus too. Then forecast maps (with snow levels really clearly spelled out so everyone can understand them), all the now stuff (satellite, radar, all obs etc) and long range.

In the meantime, Euro is still at janebunn.net (and yr.no), but do keep the following in mind:
- 5:30am only the short forecast is updated with 12Z data, the long term (days 3 onwards) remains 00Z, ie yesterday's data
- 9:30am the long term finally gets updated, so they are all from 12Z.
11:30am the short term updates to 18Z.
and the same at 5:30pm and 9:30pm with the 00Z run and 06Z short run.
I have asked and begged met.no to change this back to what they used to do but they won't do it. At least the update times are less flaky than before - but do note you are not comparing apples with apples.

And.. if you weren't aware, BoM only do a 'real' forecast update each day at 4:30pm. Based on the 12Z run from the morning. The 5am issue doesn't amend anything from 'tomorrow' onwards no matter what has changed. They will leave snow on there/no snow even if none of the models like it anymore. So, if you are looking at a BoM forecast at 4pm, do be aware it's based on the info from 6am yesterday.

Any questions please ask. Any suggestions for what we can do better, please let me know.

Screen Shot 2022-05-04 at 2.26.43 pm.png
That explains a lot RE: elevations on your consensus product. Thanks.
It’s coming along. Well done.
 

Rat trap bindings

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 17, 2017
426
972
263
IMO this event will be exactly as @POW Hungry prediction heading

4-6th May 2022 - Early Sneaz'n Snot System​

Is... I think this for Thredbo is GFS based and doesn’t excite me.
DBF976FD-D967-471F-9B53-204E777ED2AD.jpeg
 
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Rat trap bindings

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 17, 2017
426
972
263
Pretty benign for the next couple of weeks according to snow.forecast.. and seeing I sometimes post these images and feel I’m definitely out of my league with all the high tech but interesting forecast stuff by those much brighter than me, here is the background behind these images…

0C63F7DA-657C-417C-912E-C4617CA5A77F.jpeg


7CA92E52-4F1C-49CA-9C36-8D7DBFFC1782.jpeg


E66B3ED9-CF7F-4221-A43A-8C6BA42B385E.jpeg


68CB5F9A-439D-4E3B-9079-DF76FE15F814.jpeg
 
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