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Predictions 4-8th August Haymaker

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Jul 24, 2018.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Feeling fairly confident here. It's been flaunted with in the BBQ thread on a couple of occasions, but it's stuck on ensembles to give it more than a hopecast birth.

    Ensembles signalling a strong upper level trough through the SE around the 4-6th August. It's stalled a bit on recent runs.

    GFS LWT has the trough peaking under SW WA on the 31 July.


    EC has it through under the SW a day or two later (~2AUG). The unique feature here is the strong high digging and ridging in higher latitudes (trailing South) of the anom.


    The question of it peaking to early are valid but but I think the ridging is open to forging it Eastward yet. It is looking strong to me.

    EC ensembles
     

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  2. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    In the diary.
     
  3. iagreewithhim

    iagreewithhim Blessed are the bignoses Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'll be there on the 6th. Make it happen!
     
  4. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    All in with a pair of 7's...
     
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  5. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Been looking good for ages. Could be big. EPS mean.
     
  6. steeps

    steeps One of Us

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    I wish upon a star.....Hotham goodness for that week if right !
     
  7. foxbat

    foxbat Hard Yards

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    Hey weather gurus......heading down perisher for weekend 4th & 5th.....looks like cover will be good ......any idea weather conditions?...thx
     
  8. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    No guru but you'd might as well blindfold yourself and throw a dart at a moving target. Too far away to worry about IMO at this stage.

    (Welcome to the forums BTW :) )
     
  9. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    There is a good chance for snow. Wind often accompanies snowfall. With a low, there's always a chance of rain. That is some sort of summary of what we currently have.
     
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  10. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Check back in a week
     
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  11. Funky

    Funky One of Us

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    Hmmmmm... I predict it WILL happen. I leave on the 3rd... it always dumps the day after I leave...
     
  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC gearing up. Wouldn't mind a stonker of a High behind it, if I am to be picky.
    Node is big on world wide view.
    [​IMG]
     
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  13. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's a pretty deep, broad low. Take a lot to ridge it given the weakness of the Highs progged there.
    Long way to go yet.
     
  15. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Nice dip in Drivers .
     
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  16. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep looking good in latest EPS. Still unclear how it is going to pan out(mind you EPS Control), but is clear that something will happen. Perhaps my comment above was a tad early though @foxbat. There is definitely a chance though at this stage.
     
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  17. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Any time i see that 540 line around top of Tassie on EPS @ 240 hours its enough to make the ears stand up. At 300hrs its showing substance/ i reckon. IMO this one will show its face in one way or another.
     
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  18. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Agree, it's a matter of working out how. This is a long term strategy, seems to keep working for us.
     
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  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Any 'bulge' in a +250 hrs ensemble is pointing to high confidence, and possibly high skill.
     
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  20. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    watching with interest. At falls that weekend
     
  21. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good call Pow. Looks game on at this stage IMO.
     
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  22. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    EC progression from 1st to 4th requires a tidy up but this kinda plot is encouraging IMO.
     
  23. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Weatherzone has it pencilled in for 5-10 on Sat & Sun. I will take it we arrive 4 August.. for a week, I bring the snow and hate shovelling car parks.
     
  24. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's still a million hours out. If it's still there this time next week only then will I believe.
     
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  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The IO riding is there on GFS this AM bringing it bang on over SE AUS, EC still has much of it peaking some where near WA.
    Big upgrades on GFS 18z just now. wow.

    Lest we forget +250 hours out.
    EC


    GFS
     
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  26. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Jesus she's a big beauty! :eek:
     
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  27. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    18z GFS is magic. A weeks worth of fronts and snow. Easy 1m+ on this dream GFS run. Not sure you can upgrade any further lol
     
  28. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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  29. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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  30. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Thats such a big blob of purple, if it pushed a bit north that could affect the whole continent.
     
  31. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sat upgrade? Need snow not rain for my beginners!
     
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  32. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    Im up there from the 30th to the 6th and for the first time im worried there will be too much snow weather and wind hold hahah 1st time for everything lol
     
  33. foxbat

    foxbat Hard Yards

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    Yep....up there same time...maybe i prayed too hard
     
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  34. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    It does look quite good. Interestingly GFS then has a blow-torch blasting SE Australia a few days later on August 8.... Long way out though.
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, that's the crack pipe talking. A GFS prog goes out the window after big anoms.
     
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  36. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS does crack?!
     
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  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic
     
  38. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 00z is all over the shop.



    Meanwhile CMC has a big strong node lurking for Sunday/Monday.
     
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  39. Tanuki

    Tanuki Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    :eek:
     
  40. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    ^^ GFS has been performing better than EC when it comes to precip of late, IMO.
     
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  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A long-time user and abuser.

    RE: The Canuck: fantastic set up. The progression is there IMO.
     
  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    In short range, I think it’s done well too. But not sure it’s been any ‘better’.
     
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  43. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, I have a hunch that EC might verify that. It (and EPS) has been angling that way for a while. Ignore GFS for the moment IMO.
     
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  44. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Whats with all the GFS bashing ? EC and GFS are both very handy Models- they jive on the same dance floor and neither of them have perfect moves. GFS has the random freaky moves that after several years of veiwing you know when to turn the other way-- EC has the infrequent vague moves and is sometimes underdressed when the popular song begins.
     
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  45. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I think you nailed it.
     
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  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just some light-hearted fun mate. GFS is a bun fight after 200 hours as you know... That's what we're dealing with here.
     
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  48. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just commenting on the current situation. Which is GFS being inconsistent, and EC/EPS being consistent. I'm not bashing GFS, just pointing out that it doesn't seem to have much of a clue(or as you say, random freaky move). As @Hermon alluded to, it has been doing well with short term precip (and just generally IMO).
     
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  49. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    GFS is like a Jack Russel puppy whilst EC is like the ten year old beagle. One is fun to watch bounching all over the place, the other will get off the couch eventually.
     
  50. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Clipper on EC.:whistle:

    I am only taking the P1sso_O Looks epic

    [​IMG]
     
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