Predictions 4-8th August Haymaker

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Jul 24, 2018.

  1. Swiss

    Swiss Addicted

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2015
    Messages:
    158
    Likes Received:
    245
    Location:
    Canberra
    Fingers crossed - glad I canned last weekend for this, first runs of the season so hoping for some fresh!
     
  2. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2011
    Messages:
    6,063
    Likes Received:
    4,024
    It’s going to ****ing snow.

    A LOT.

    And r**n

    A little.

    @Jellybeans1000, does that fit in your table??
     
  3. Portski

    Portski Addicted

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2005
    Messages:
    435
    Likes Received:
    206
    Location:
    North Coast NSW
    Them's big numbers for hourly rate of snowfall in Oz
     
  4. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    30,671
    Likes Received:
    26,111
    Location:
    woonona
    Me thinks same.
    Hourly rates like that plus descending FL plus some decent shear = snow to lower levels.
    IMO
     
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,915
    Likes Received:
    21,652
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Yep, when you've got 4mm/hr in negative temps is indicative of high DGZ. A healthy DGZ can put snow several hundred metres below FL.

    DGZ's tomorrow night are progged to be cherry ripe.
     
    W0nkey D0nkey, Ret-ro, nfip and 3 others like this.
  6. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    71,073
    Likes Received:
    51,593
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    Later start on Monday got me like :(
     
    Ret-ro likes this.
  7. skull

    skull One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2017
    Messages:
    1,228
    Likes Received:
    1,870
    how low?
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,915
    Likes Received:
    21,652
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Snow above ~1100m tomorrow night/Satdee morning IMO.
     
    Ret-ro, Swiss and skull like this.
  9. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 7, 2015
    Messages:
    740
    Likes Received:
    1,087
    Location:
    Central Coast
    Its going to nuke imo
     
    Swiss and Karicta like this.
  10. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,472
    Likes Received:
    16,638
    Location:
    Canberra
    A few SWEAT values approaching 300 on Skew Ts :thumbs: . Directional/ Vertical shear looking very good . Bring it on.
     
    POW_hungry and Donzah like this.
  11. skull

    skull One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2017
    Messages:
    1,228
    Likes Received:
    1,870
    yiew, we gonna get snowed on in the tent.
     
  12. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    30,671
    Likes Received:
    26,111
    Location:
    woonona
    Better snow than rain.
    Fall rates look solid
     
    The Fallen and skull like this.
  13. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    8,565
    Likes Received:
    10,339
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    It fits well IMO. I release the second part tomorrow for Mon-Wed.
     
    Kletterer and Karicta like this.
  14. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,472
    Likes Received:
    16,638
    Location:
    Canberra
    Gonna be one hell of a big fat burly observations thread IMO.
     
    Edgecrusher, SAsurfa, Ret-ro and 3 others like this.
  15. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2015
    Messages:
    1,568
    Likes Received:
    2,134
    Location:
    Tooma , NSW
    Warning to Sheep Graziers
    IDN29000

    Warning to Sheep Graziers
    for the Central Tablelands, Southern Tablelands, South West Slopes, Riverina, Snowy Mountains and Australian Capital Territory forecast districts

    Issued at 3:47 pm EST on Thursday 2 August 2018.

    Sheep graziers are warned that cold temperatures, rain and showers and strong north to northwesterly winds are expected during Friday. Areas likely to be affected include the Southern Tablelands, South West Slopes, Snowy Mountains and Australian Capital Territory forecast districts and parts of the Central Tablelands and Riverina forecast districts. There is a risk of losses of lambs and sheep exposed to these conditions.

    So its really a thing now. I have spent the last 2 days getting my animals to safe haven down low and stocked up the feed shelters for the youngest lambs. Dogs got about their work with some urgency today and even the new dog , Buddy , got his first proper workout coupled with an old hand Dusty. Good pairing these two who have worked the training paddock together for a few months now and today Dusty's experience was complemented by Buddy's speed, he is truly a fast uphill dog.

    With an eye on the weather I predict my travel up the Alpine Way tomorrow night may be more fun than I anticipated , there is no substitute for experience , preparedness and good tyres fit for purpose. Then I predict 9 days of pure fun will be had. :D
     
  16. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2017
    Messages:
    819
    Likes Received:
    644
    Is the BOM doing personal warnings now?
    So its really a thing now. I have spent the last 2 days getting my animals to safe haven down low and stocked up the feed shelters for the youngest lambs. Dogs got about their work with some urgency today and even the new dog , Buddy , got his first proper workout coupled with an old hand Dusty. Good pairing these two who have worked the training paddock together for a few months now and today Dusty's experience was complemented by Buddy's speed, he is truly a fast uphill dog.

    With an eye on the weather I predict my travel up the Alpine Way tomorrow night may be more fun than I anticipated , there is no substitute for experience , preparedness and good tyres fit for purpose. Then I predict 9 days of pure fun will be had
     
    spottedreptile and Bendalong+ like this.
  17. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2017
    Messages:
    819
    Likes Received:
    644
    Canberra the way to go, No reason to go Snowy Hwy. in winter. or in the predicted weather.,
     
    Wardy likes this.
  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,915
    Likes Received:
    21,652
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    GFS loves Wednesday with an upgrade on precip. EC not all that interested. Temps ok IMO.
     
    MickM, SAsurfa and Arne like this.
  19. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    21,856
    Likes Received:
    14,330
    Location:
    Dubbo NSW
    If you want to get to Jindy as fast as possible i second heading through Canberra. If you want to head via SMH it looks like snow will start to fall around 10am Monday. It will probably be a nice pretty snowy drive with plenty of wind squals. SMH has relatively low traffic volumes so makes for a nice snow drive if you've got a decent car, decent rubber and know how to handle slippery conditions. If this sounds aweful to you then Canbberra and Monaro highway is the better route.
     
  20. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,819
    Likes Received:
    1,428
    Location:
    South
    Slow snail after Friday. Its crazy how much this system is stalling, even since yesterday

    [​IMG]
     
  21. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    71,073
    Likes Received:
    51,593
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    which ain't a bad thing overall, just sucks with my availability only being Monday.
     
    SAsurfa likes this.
  22. skull

    skull One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2017
    Messages:
    1,228
    Likes Received:
    1,870
    This is making me nervous about camping now.
     
  23. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    21,856
    Likes Received:
    14,330
    Location:
    Dubbo NSW
    would imagine the worst of the wind will have past by the time you are setting up tonight
     
    skull and POW_hungry like this.
  24. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2000
    Messages:
    30,942
    Likes Received:
    4,298
    Location:
    Melbourne Australia
    Hmm whats making you nervous, the wind or Kelpieboy ?
     
  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,915
    Likes Received:
    21,652
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Yeah, I imagine the upstream Northerly blowing up the valley will be the worst of it for the NP campgrounds. Pretty gross wind though.
     
  26. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,819
    Likes Received:
    1,428
    Location:
    South
    Monday looks like blizzards. There is not really a weather gap for the BC.

    The following week may better for the BC. This system will really sort this base out.

    [​IMG]
     
    mick chopps and Edgecrusher like this.
  27. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    71,073
    Likes Received:
    51,593
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    yeah monday will be hard going. a good inbounds day where you can get shelter. which is what I'll be aiming for, still got 2 days to use on the pass.
     
    CarveMan, SAsurfa and 7wombathead like this.
  28. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    8,565
    Likes Received:
    10,339
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Basically a setup for a good September (and following months in the BC). Which is exactly what we want.
     
    Ret-ro, SAsurfa, The Fallen and 3 others like this.
  29. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,819
    Likes Received:
    1,428
    Location:
    South
    :thumbs:

    Anytime in the BC is Good as long as their is a bit of base and a fat high.

    Even boilers plates can be fun if one has crampons.
     
  30. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2014
    Messages:
    4,340
    Likes Received:
    3,814
    Location:
    Cairns, Queensland
    For someone whose moment of glory comes the last week of the season that's pretty good news. And that's exactly what I want:thumbs: Oops, off topic.
     
    Marty_McSly and The Fallen like this.
  31. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 7, 2015
    Messages:
    740
    Likes Received:
    1,087
    Location:
    Central Coast
    It's just fueling up before the big push east.
     
    7wombathead likes this.
  32. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2014
    Messages:
    7,863
    Likes Received:
    13,952
    Location:
    Canberra, ACT
  33. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 7, 2015
    Messages:
    740
    Likes Received:
    1,087
    Location:
    Central Coast
    The low over NZ has slowed the leading high sitting just off the NSW coast. Its compacting the pressure gradient over NSW and Vic which should help tonight. Looks good to me.
     
    SAsurfa likes this.
  34. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2005
    Messages:
    1,577
    Likes Received:
    2,483
    Location:
    Manly, Sydney
    Yep just updating my East Coast Tas surf forecast and it has def stalled a little, strong pressure gradient lasting an extra few hours, means touch more NE swell at dawn tomorrow.
     
    The Fallen likes this.
  35. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2010
    Messages:
    980
    Likes Received:
    935
    Location:
    Essendon
    We thinking Tuesday the best pow day?
     
    Ret-ro and The Fallen like this.
  36. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 7, 2015
    Messages:
    740
    Likes Received:
    1,087
    Location:
    Central Coast
    Later Mon and Tues morning look really good at the moment for the big 4. Buller will be a bit up and down due to the Westerly but there are enough fronts and troughs built into the rotation to help fluctuate the wind between WSW and WNW so they should also do ok. But in saying that, I don't know buller that well.
     
    snowblowa likes this.
  37. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2014
    Messages:
    7,863
    Likes Received:
    13,952
    Location:
    Canberra, ACT
    BoM - Da Bo - Look at that Monday upgrade goodness :)

     
    Billy_Buttons and The Fallen like this.
  38. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2014
    Messages:
    7,863
    Likes Received:
    13,952
    Location:
    Canberra, ACT
    BoM - Perisher

     
  39. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2014
    Messages:
    7,863
    Likes Received:
    13,952
    Location:
    Canberra, ACT
    * NOT * the 1800 YR NO run for Thredbo

     
  40. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2017
    Messages:
    819
    Likes Received:
    644
    Others have been sitting at up to 40 for Monday, lets see, be there getting buried.
     
  41. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 7, 2015
    Messages:
    740
    Likes Received:
    1,087
    Location:
    Central Coast
    The overall structure and duration of the event is good. Let tonight wash through and allow the embeds to establish themselves and watch the goodness come. 40 to 60cm by Wednesday IMO
     
    FourSquare04 and Ret-ro like this.
  42. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2017
    Messages:
    819
    Likes Received:
    644
    Keen as , be there tomorrow by 2.
     
    The Fallen likes this.
  43. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,269
    Likes Received:
    50,507
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Stay on topic
     
    Ret-ro likes this.
  44. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2010
    Messages:
    980
    Likes Received:
    935
    Location:
    Essendon
    I predict snow Monday to Wednesday.
    I also predict I’ll arrive at Bullville car park at 7:30am latest....
    I also predict I may do a day trip to Hoth System Wednesday from Essendon to honour mutha naycha
    :puke:
     
    Ret-ro and The Fallen like this.
  45. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2010
    Messages:
    980
    Likes Received:
    935
    Location:
    Essendon
    .....and I predict I’ll post goodness.
     
    MickM and The Fallen like this.
  46. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2017
    Messages:
    819
    Likes Received:
    644
    It is pretty, I am with this guy, maybe not that much, lets see.
     
  47. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    8,565
    Likes Received:
    10,339
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    For Sunday-Wednesday.
     
  48. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2017
    Messages:
    819
    Likes Received:
    644
    Fallen ,POW is the atabatic thing happening tonight , seems small cell over PV /NSW.?
     
  49. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,472
    Likes Received:
    16,638
    Location:
    Canberra
    Late Tues into Wed looks good for moisture IMO.
     
    Stevski likes this.
  50. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2008
    Messages:
    1,961
    Likes Received:
    984
    18Z GFS has sub-zero 850 HPa temps over the Alps from Monday morning to Tuesday night. That's encouraging and should enable reasonable accumulations to repair the damage from yesterday and today.