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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Jul 24, 2018.
Thredbo AWS down.
Four little Piglets (Mini nodes) lining up for some ozzy alp action.
I think the next spell will start around 2 am Monday and should be fully loaded by 8:30am
I am lining up Tuesday.
Look at those Tues - Wed numbers for Thredbo
I think I'll just have to put up some weather obs from the Vicco resorts next weekend
Not bad totals for 24 hours. 10 am Tues to 10 am Wed
Still looks good to me. The snail is spinning multiple cores and the embedded troughs are starting to take shape. Late Monday into Tuesday still on track with lows at -5 at resort level. Hold the faith.
I'm getting seriously interested to see how this plays out.
The low has stalled under SA for a long time. I can't remember a system that has stalled this long and it just keeps feeding.
The western edge is now north south with the outer fetch feeding straight off the Antarctic Ice shelf.
The stall has allowed a prolonged cold air fetch which can only be a good thing IMO. A stalling system normally warms and weakens but this has a strong cold air feed and the core keeps reforming so is maintaining strength.
As I mentioned, I can't recall a similar system so I'm just giving it an educated guess to what happens next BUT IMO, as the low moves and the feed swings SW, all that cold air and energy is heading for SE Aus. This could be a pow system for the records. ETA still looks Monday arvo into Tuesday. I'm watching with interest.
Some consistency now between AXSR, AXSG & GFS - Mon & Wed the good days.
850 hPa 6 hourly sequence. Starting 4am Monday. A wee bit of early clear stuff then a good period of potetial snowfalls IMO.
Best 4 Day rule so far this winter. Pass. Although Wednesday looks a bit wetter down low (not as dry snow as Monday tuesday) but will deliver up high above 1400 m.
4 day rule!
Will you get amonst it, the Ozzy Pow.
00Z has an upgrade- pressure, heights, precip for the back end.
Access R looks Solid Too. 3 hr precipitation rates hinting at 2 to 5 mm /hr.
Check the relative humidity plot. Its a big dark blob.
Thredbo soundings 4pm Monday and 4am Tues. I reckon she might snow.
Bom moisture upgrade
Maybe a bit of prefrontal around 1ish - then snow before dawn - then a three day storm.
2m at Spencers on Thursday reading - if full forecast pans out.
Monday looks large for NSW resorts. It’s the business end of the system IMO.
Prepared. Car parked for the week in the expectation these bad boys will need to pull us out in 7 days. AWD so chose the front to get back up the hill to get the luggage. And maybe the kids can come home too, and the fact that where I am parked is head on into the fronts. I’ll post an “after the Haymaker” photo.....
IMO it looks good for both Falls/Hotham and NSW resorts.
Big call, @rocketboy!
Bom calling snow down to 800m Tommoz and 700m Tuesday for west and south Gippsland vic.
Should nearly see some sleet where I am if that eventuates
I plan to be so deep amongst it in Buller's southside trees during Tuesdays trough, Wombat my man.
A nice bit of CAPE
Jane pretty much sums up what all the kings in here have stated all week Stevey. When the cold air arrives this arvo with the guts of our first front, pressure will go south and moisture will amplify with passage of system in a NW aspect, which should get the party started. Southern hills like LM and B.B. were never progged to do well from this IMO it’s a NSW, Hoth, Falls set up. Tuesday’s trough is moist and Wednesday’s front has had nothing but moisture and trajectory upgrades last few days, so plenty to look forward to chief.
I was checking the Buller map. It must pump on these lower level dumps.
I guess the motto is bring on (upgrade) the 522 line next week for some low level action.
A chat for the BBQ room probs, but when Buller’s Southside has the cover, and you get a NW system blow snow into there, the steeps and trees are probs best in the country IMO alongside a few spots near Mary’s at Hoth and deep in the cabbage patch at Falls and golf course at bobo. It gets gnarly in and around federation, with good cover, so much fun.
....I’m in there tomoz, I’ll post
stay on topic. Weather predictions only.
Wednesday's front decaying on it's run looking at that. Probs a downgrade on Wednesday coming up I'd imagine?
Wednesday is only good for maybe ~10cm IMO, I know there’s been some divergence but it’s been obviously overstated by some IMO.
yeah Jane still going with 10-20 as of this morning but definitely looking like the lower end of that IMO.
Anyone worried about the westerly winds for Buller tomorrow?
BOM is still bullish
Wednesday 8 August
Snow. Very windy.
Possible rainfall: 15 to 30 mm
Chance of any rain: 95%
Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow with the risk of a thunderstorm in the afternoon/evening. Winds northwesterly 50 to 70 km/h decreasing to 35 to 55 km/h early in the morning then turning westerly 30 to 45 km/h in the early afternoon.
GFS 6 hourly Vertical Velocity plots showing the best of todays bouyancy at 10pm tonight- with a highest values in NSW Alps. Not a great deal above 650 hPa though. Its a bit mixed up with varying vertical and horizontal wind shear charactaristics potentialy changing constantly.
is that not good tho.
Instability rather than consistant shear ?
yr has some impressive precip numbers for tonight into tomorrow.
It’s going to snow more .. trust me , I am not a dentist or solicitor
This next little front due tonight has some impressive precip with it. However I think it will be base building stuff rather than fun pow pow. Temps at 700mb will be 4 degrees warmer than the system which hit last night. It will snow but it will be heavy. It still will be good for the base.
At least another 15cm for Buller tonight with the wind moderating slightly tomorrow.
In a Northerly, that’ll be interesting.