Predictions 4-8th August Haymaker

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Jul 24, 2018.

  1. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    Thredbo AWS down.
     
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  2. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Four little Piglets (Mini nodes) lining up for some ozzy alp action.

    [​IMG]
     
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  3. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I think the next spell will start around 2 am Monday and should be fully loaded by 8:30am

    [​IMG]

    I am lining up Tuesday.
     
    #503 7wombathead, Aug 4, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2018
  4. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Go

    The

    Snail

    [​IMG]


    Look at those Tues - Wed numbers for Thredbo :)

     
  5. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perisher

     
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  6. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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  7. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hotham



    I think I'll just have to put up some weather obs from the Vicco resorts next weekend :)
     
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  8. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not bad totals for 24 hours. 10 am Tues to 10 am Wed
     
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  9. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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  10. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  11. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still looks good to me. The snail is spinning multiple cores and the embedded troughs are starting to take shape. Late Monday into Tuesday still on track with lows at -5 at resort level. Hold the faith.
     
  12. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm getting seriously interested to see how this plays out.

    The low has stalled under SA for a long time. I can't remember a system that has stalled this long and it just keeps feeding.

    The western edge is now north south with the outer fetch feeding straight off the Antarctic Ice shelf.

    The stall has allowed a prolonged cold air fetch which can only be a good thing IMO. A stalling system normally warms and weakens but this has a strong cold air feed and the core keeps reforming so is maintaining strength.

    As I mentioned, I can't recall a similar system so I'm just giving it an educated guess to what happens next BUT IMO, as the low moves and the feed swings SW, all that cold air and energy is heading for SE Aus. This could be a pow system for the records. ETA still looks Monday arvo into Tuesday. I'm watching with interest.
     
  13. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

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    Some consistency now between AXSR, AXSG & GFS - Mon & Wed the good days.
     
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  14. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    850 hPa 6 hourly sequence. Starting 4am Monday. A wee bit of early clear stuff then a good period of potetial snowfalls IMO.
     
  15. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

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  16. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Best 4 Day rule so far this winter. Pass. Although Wednesday looks a bit wetter down low (not as dry snow as Monday tuesday) but will deliver up high above 1400 m.
     
    #516 7wombathead, Aug 5, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2018
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  17. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    4 day rule!
     
  18. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Will you get amonst it, the Ozzy Pow.
     
  19. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    00Z has an upgrade- pressure, heights, precip for the back end.
     
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  20. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Access R looks Solid Too. 3 hr precipitation rates hinting at 2 to 5 mm /hr.

    [​IMG]

    Check the relative humidity plot. Its a big dark blob.

    [​IMG]
     
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  21. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thredbo soundings 4pm Monday and 4am Tues. I reckon she might snow.
     
  22. bullet

    bullet One of Us

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    Bom moisture upgrade
     
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  24. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Maybe a bit of prefrontal around 1ish - then snow before dawn - then a three day storm.

    2m at Spencers on Thursday reading - if full forecast pans out.
     
  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Monday looks large for NSW resorts. It’s the business end of the system IMO.
     
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  26. steeps

    steeps Addicted

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    Prepared. Car parked for the week in the expectation these bad boys will need to pull us out in 7 days. AWD so chose the front to get back up the hill to get the luggage. And maybe the kids can come home too, and the fact that where I am parked is head on into the fronts. I’ll post an “after the Haymaker” photo.....
     

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  27. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO it looks good for both Falls/Hotham and NSW resorts.
     
  28. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    Big call, @rocketboy!
     
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  29. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Bom calling snow down to 800m Tommoz and 700m Tuesday for west and south Gippsland vic.
    Should nearly see some sleet where I am if that eventuates
     
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  30. Warlock_01

    Warlock_01 One of Us

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  31. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    I plan to be so deep amongst it in Buller's southside trees during Tuesdays trough, Wombat my man.
     
  32. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A nice bit of CAPE
     
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  33. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Jane pretty much sums up what all the kings in here have stated all week Stevey. When the cold air arrives this arvo with the guts of our first front, pressure will go south and moisture will amplify with passage of system in a NW aspect, which should get the party started. Southern hills like LM and B.B. were never progged to do well from this IMO it’s a NSW, Hoth, Falls set up. Tuesday’s trough is moist and Wednesday’s front has had nothing but moisture and trajectory upgrades last few days, so plenty to look forward to chief.
     
  34. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I was checking the Buller map. It must pump on these lower level dumps.

    I guess the motto is bring on (upgrade) the 522 line next week for some low level action.
     
  35. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    A chat for the BBQ room probs, but when Buller’s Southside has the cover, and you get a NW system blow snow into there, the steeps and trees are probs best in the country IMO alongside a few spots near Mary’s at Hoth and deep in the cabbage patch at Falls and golf course at bobo. It gets gnarly in and around federation, with good cover, so much fun.
     
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  36. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    ....I’m in there tomoz, I’ll post ;)
     
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    stay on topic. Weather predictions only.
     
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  38. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  39. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wednesday's front decaying on it's run looking at that. Probs a downgrade on Wednesday coming up I'd imagine?
     
  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wednesday is only good for maybe ~10cm IMO, I know there’s been some divergence but it’s been obviously overstated by some IMO.
     
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  41. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    yeah Jane still going with 10-20 as of this morning but definitely looking like the lower end of that IMO.
     
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  42. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    [​IMG]

    Anyone worried about the westerly winds for Buller tomorrow?
     
  43. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    BOM is still bullish

    Thredbo

    Wednesday 8 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -4
    Max -2
    Snow. Very windy.
    Possible rainfall: 15 to 30 mm
    Chance of any rain: 95% [​IMG]
    Alpine area

    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow with the risk of a thunderstorm in the afternoon/evening. Winds northwesterly 50 to 70 km/h decreasing to 35 to 55 km/h early in the morning then turning westerly 30 to 45 km/h in the early afternoon.
     
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  44. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 6 hourly Vertical Velocity plots showing the best of todays bouyancy at 10pm tonight- with a highest values in NSW Alps. Not a great deal above 650 hPa though. Its a bit mixed up with varying vertical and horizontal wind shear charactaristics potentialy changing constantly.
     
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  45. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    is that not good tho.
    Instability rather than consistant shear ?
     
  46. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    yr has some impressive precip numbers for tonight into tomorrow.
     
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  47. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    It’s going to snow more .. trust me , I am not a dentist or solicitor
     
  48. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  49. SkiMun

    SkiMun Part of the Furniture

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    This next little front due tonight has some impressive precip with it. However I think it will be base building stuff rather than fun pow pow. Temps at 700mb will be 4 degrees warmer than the system which hit last night. It will snow but it will be heavy. It still will be good for the base.

    At least another 15cm for Buller tonight with the wind moderating slightly tomorrow. :)
     
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  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    In a Northerly, that’ll be interesting.