Predictions 5-7th May Snow Event

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POW Hungry

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As the node enters the 7/8 day model window, I can see good potential for a significant snow event for our Aus Mainland Alps on the 5-7th May.
GFS has a weakening trough North of the Tasman, progged to deteriorate across the 3rd/4th May. Interestingly enough, it seems significant enough to influence the shift in the broad high pressure over the Eastern Seaboard throughout the same period.
Simultaneously we have the front progged to draw on moisture from a mid-level West Coast trough. Moisture looks to be aplenty and cold air is not a problem, but highly dependent on the likelihood of a cut-off low scenario and the possibility of ridging high in the Aus Bight - both for and against respectively.
w7hq39.png


Although well over a week out, I am considerate of the fact that this is still very-much 'pre-season' and the likelihood of significant (~20-30cm accumulations) is very-low; I do see some great potentials for weeks ahead with high positive SST's in the Tasman and deep high pressure ridging in the Bight and Southern Ocean.
 

Majikthise

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.... I do see some great potentials for weeks ahead with high positive SST's in the Tasman and deep high pressure ridging in the Bight and Southern Ocean.
This is what I have been watching, just uncertain as to how it will pan out for Oz, thinking Thredbo will be the winner, there is also the likelihood imo for some damaging pre frontal and "fresh over rain affected base "may be the norm for the season. The nodes are really shaping up and looking pretty regular with it. I am concerned as to whether that wheel of fortune will spin for an extended perio. Other than that I reckon Nz will score big this winter while it is set up like it seems to be.
 

ice_man

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ACCESS has the first part of the system sliding south, although the high is hanging back just long enough for another, stronger front to hit. Even this far out, looks like some agreement that something might happen.
 
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Donza

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I'm looking at this with interest .
Airshow this weekend .
That Low projected to form a ECL doesn't look right to me.
 
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Claude Cat

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IMO latest model runs are fairly meh with this one.
EC possibly a tad warm on Monday before snow showers Tuesday.
GFS has most of it heading south.
15050418_2718.gif
 
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nfip

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I don't have a feel or the read you guys do.
Closer in , as you say Claude, then I can be more comfortable in my own judgements.
 

Donza

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Progression still illogical beyond 72 hours , even then its a bit ho hum.
This will be a sat pic system.
Latest GFS has a western alps slider folder .
Like last system.
ie it gets cutoff from its 500hpa support
Dat gravy train from the Antarctic
 

Edgecrusher

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Progression still illogical beyond 72 hours , even then its a bit ho hum.
This will be a sat pic system.
Latest GFS has a western alps slider folder .
Like last system.
ie it gets cutoff from its 500hpa support
Dat gravy train from the Antarctic
Donza speak in weather threads is awesome.
I'm eyeing off the Alpine weather for Sunday as I'm planning on a day trip. BOM are saying snow showers about on Monday at this stage, so they're perhaps seeing a little at the end of the forecast period.
 

Donza

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Thats what happens when a cat sits on your laptop as you write.
Its cold enough, its wet enough. It will snow..
How much , well?
However I would think it will be a nice reminder of SWesterlies .
 

Claude Cat

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00 GFS looks better than this morning runs (probably better than yesterdays as well)

15050500_2900.gif

Still looks pretty zonal.
 

Donza

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GFS has a weird elongation through the mid layers that doesn't make sense to me.
Still struggling with Northern NSW me thinks
 

Astro66

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I'm weighing in.

850's looking good for 5th and 7th. 6th marginal.

Moisture looks best on 5th. 6th and 7th top ups.

Northern feed from weakening Indian Ocean Low, will add some lubrication.

I'm calling 10-15cm, that will only feed the rivers.
 
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Karicta

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Progression still illogical beyond 72 hours , even then its a bit ho hum.
This will be a sat pic system.
Latest GFS has a western alps slider folder .
Like last system.
ie it gets cutoff from its 500hpa support
Dat gravy train from the Antarctic

Axs doesn't cut off the uppers, which is great thing, but the cold finger is a mere brush

Must wait til fri/sat for a reliable read, as stating the obvious; could go either way
 

Vermillion

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Donza speak in weather threads is awesome.
I'm eyeing off the Alpine weather for Sunday as I'm planning on a day trip. BOM are saying snow showers about on Monday at this stage, so they're perhaps seeing a little at the end of the forecast period.

Even un-readable Donza-speak is better than PG smugness. At least he has a clue.
 

Claude Cat

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IMO pretty much gone on this morning's EC run. Peaking too early and sliding south.
GFS still holds a little hope for a small dusting.
 

Donza

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The two problems for the models.
-cyclone in the norwest.
-trough over SE queensland.
Both so variable the parameters of the models are being influenced .
 

Vermillion

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4th into the 5th looks quick, but will be cold enough. 5th into 6th looks better for a sustained burst of snow. Both look like resort-level snow for sure, possibly lowering down as low as 1200-1300m. LWT looks really good for this period, and is not really being affected by the action further north (like the NWP models are). Due to that I am not really willing to put too much more on the line with this one, it's, like Donza said, a sat pic/suck it and see type couple of systems.
 
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