Predictions 5-7th May Snow Event

[POW Hungry]

As the node enters the 7/8 day model window, I can see good potential for a significant snow event for our Aus Mainland Alps on the 5-7th May.
GFS has a weakening trough North of the Tasman, progged to deteriorate across the 3rd/4th May. Interestingly enough, it seems significant enough to influence the shift in the broad high pressure over the Eastern Seaboard throughout the same period.
Simultaneously we have the front progged to draw on moisture from a mid-level West Coast trough. Moisture looks to be aplenty and cold air is not a problem, but highly dependent on the likelihood of a cut-off low scenario and the possibility of ridging high in the Aus Bight - both for and against respectively.

Although well over a week out, I am considerate of the fact that this is still very-much 'pre-season' and the likelihood of significant (~20-30cm accumulations) is very-low; I do see some great potentials for weeks ahead with high positive SST's in the Tasman and deep high pressure ridging in the Bight and Southern Ocean.

 

[Majikthise]

.... I do see some great potentials for weeks ahead with high positive SST's in the Tasman and deep high pressure ridging in the Bight and Southern Ocean.

This is what I have been watching, just uncertain as to how it will pan out for Oz, thinking Thredbo will be the winner, there is also the likelihood imo for some damaging pre frontal and "fresh over rain affected base "may be the norm for the season. The nodes are really shaping up and looking pretty regular with it. I am concerned as to whether that wheel of fortune will spin for an extended perio. Other than that I reckon Nz will score big this winter while it is set up like it seems to be.

 

[Claude Cat]

Looks strong on EC.

 

[loweee]

Loving the position of the high. Can anchor there for winter. IMO

 

[ice_man]

ACCESS has the first part of the system sliding south, although the high is hanging back just long enough for another, stronger front to hit. Even this far out, looks like some agreement that something might happen.

 

[Donza]

I'm looking at this with interest .
Airshow this weekend .
That Low projected to form a ECL doesn't look right to me.

 

[Claude Cat]

Looking good on both EC and GFS

 

[Alfred14]

Would be nice to see that low a little further north.

 

[Claude Cat]

Latest GFS run has it further south.

 

[Vermillion]

Would be nice to see that low a little further north.

Yup, pressure isnt exciting me that much at the moment. Then again, i'm not looking for 1000hpa crosses to give the big dumps at this time of year.

 

[teckel]

Meh! A month too early to start getting excited.

 

[Telemark Phat]

Meh! A month too early to start getting excited.

Unless Hughie is getting very generous and we get a season like 2000. One can love in hope.

 

[dawooduck]

1981 .....

 

[Claude Cat]

IMO latest model runs are fairly meh with this one.
EC possibly a tad warm on Monday before snow showers Tuesday.
GFS has most of it heading south.

 

[Angus_McCrory]

1981 .....

Oh yeah

 

[Zimboo]

Looks the goods for NZ.

 

[Claude Cat]

Going, going ...

 

[phantomas]

Going, going ...

no it's the season starter, I read it on the internet
https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/first-day-of-skiing-perisher-front-valley-9th-may.70534/

 

[Donza]

This is related to that.................

see the ECL disappearing ? Off the model runs.

 

[nfip]

End of the "ECL"

This the last of / furthest out that is...

 

[Claude Cat]

Bugger all on GFS around that time, but I'm not trusting models more than about a week out at the moment.

 

[nfip]

I don't have a feel or the read you guys do.
Closer in , as you say Claude, then I can be more comfortable in my own judgements.

 

[Donza]

Progression still illogical beyond 72 hours , even then its a bit ho hum.
This will be a sat pic system.
Latest GFS has a western alps slider folder .
Like last system.
ie it gets cutoff from its 500hpa support
Dat gravy train from the Antarctic

 

[Edgecrusher]

Progression still illogical beyond 72 hours , even then its a bit ho hum.
This will be a sat pic system.
Latest GFS has a western alps slider folder .
Like last system.
ie it gets cutoff from its 500hpa support
Dat gravy train from the Antarctic

Donza speak in weather threads is awesome.
I'm eyeing off the Alpine weather for Sunday as I'm planning on a day trip. BOM are saying snow showers about on Monday at this stage, so they're perhaps seeing a little at the end of the forecast period.

 

[Donza]

Thats what happens when a cat sits on your laptop as you write.
Its cold enough, its wet enough. It will snow..
How much , well?
However I would think it will be a nice reminder of SWesterlies .

 

[Claude Cat]

00 GFS looks better than this morning runs (probably better than yesterdays as well)

Still looks pretty zonal.

 

[Donza]

GFS has a weird elongation through the mid layers that doesn't make sense to me.
Still struggling with Northern NSW me thinks

 

[Claude Cat]

EC looked even worse this morning. Lets see if it's any better shortly.

 

[Claude Cat]

Meh.

 

[Donza]

I'm more interested in the second coming

 

[Snow Blowey]

showing up on this evenings AXS.

 

[Astro66]

I'm weighing in.

850's looking good for 5th and 7th. 6th marginal.

Moisture looks best on 5th. 6th and 7th top ups.

Northern feed from weakening Indian Ocean Low, will add some lubrication.

I'm calling 10-15cm, that will only feed the rivers.

 

[JoeKing]

Lubrication.

 

[nfip]

I'm more interested in the second coming

AKA conveyor belt ?

 

[Karicta]

Progression still illogical beyond 72 hours , even then its a bit ho hum.
This will be a sat pic system.
Latest GFS has a western alps slider folder .
Like last system.
ie it gets cutoff from its 500hpa support
Dat gravy train from the Antarctic

Axs doesn't cut off the uppers, which is great thing, but the cold finger is a mere brush

Must wait til fri/sat for a reliable read, as stating the obvious; could go either way

 

[Vermillion]

Donza speak in weather threads is awesome.
I'm eyeing off the Alpine weather for Sunday as I'm planning on a day trip. BOM are saying snow showers about on Monday at this stage, so they're perhaps seeing a little at the end of the forecast period.

Even un-readable Donza-speak is better than PG smugness. At least he has a clue.

 

[Vermillion]

Wishy-washy unconvincing.

 

[Claude Cat]

IMO pretty much gone on this morning's EC run. Peaking too early and sliding south.
GFS still holds a little hope for a small dusting.

 

[Donza]

The two problems for the models.
-cyclone in the norwest.
-trough over SE queensland.
Both so variable the parameters of the models are being influenced .

 

[Claude Cat]

 

[Donza]

Ec has room to move

 

[Claude Cat]

Was just looking at that. Better than this morning.

Bugger all difference between EC and GFS now.

 

[Vermillion]

4th into the 5th looks quick, but will be cold enough. 5th into 6th looks better for a sustained burst of snow. Both look like resort-level snow for sure, possibly lowering down as low as 1200-1300m. LWT looks really good for this period, and is not really being affected by the action further north (like the NWP models are). Due to that I am not really willing to put too much more on the line with this one, it's, like Donza said, a sat pic/suck it and see type couple of systems.

 

[Claude Cat]

IMO not much more than a dusting on Tuesday.

 

[Vermillion]

Bro pls.

 

[NathanC]

As vermillion said 'looks quick'. my thoughts would be a mere dusting, but the following system looks a little more substantial

 

[The Plowking]

All a bit ridgey.
Don't care start of May.
Classic Vic Surf maps though.
win.

 

[Chowder11]

All a bit ridgey.
Don't care start of May.
Classic Vic Surf maps though.
win.

If only it could stall a few days for us weekend warriors.
Should be the pieces left over next weekend tho

 

[The Plowking]

If only it could stall a few days for us weekend warriors.
Should be the pieces left over next weekend tho

Am working all this week 15 mins from westernport

 

[Chowder11]

Am working all this week 15 mins from westernport

your a lucky man, could be a few good days wed thur fri.