ACCESS has a nice southerly cold blast on 5 June morphing into a super ECL by 6 and 7 June. GFS doesn't go with it. EC makes it all a little less dramatic.
It would be a Baw Baw / Thredbo special. Not enough agreement in the models to have any confidence yet.
Snow on the forecast for Canberra next Tuesday. Will undoubtedly change before then, but an interesting note considering I will be in town that week...
5-8 June system looks like a nice cut off low. 540 line and other rain-snow lines shows full proper cutoff. Would bring snow to weird places. 15-25cm with snow to the CTs and BMs. Like I said snow in weird places on the EC solution with not much for Vic.
EC 00Z backing away from this one a little with a bit of an early peak (probably off the back of today's data). Still a bit in it if it verifies.
GFS stil with cut-off int the Bight and wandering cold pool drifting East. Spag concurs with GFS. edit : for now
It should AB plots are GFS always have been. The main difference is AB's are better with extras such as full resolution. Tropical tidbits only offers one GFS plot in full resolution. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...2017053000&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=551.2000122070312
Blurrghh not liking the look of that cut off scenario with the low over southern WA, however, that's not unheard of for June and given how warm it has been up until now
Agree. They are rather well done. Uni of Wyoming also have a nifty little set up where you can customise your own.
The interesting thing that GFS highlights about a cut-off scenario is that it's going to be short on moisture without that Tasman feed. GFS really turns it up after it draws in that Tasman moisture feed. That's why I'd discount (but not exclude) AXS & CMC at this stage. Particularly with AXS, the progression of moisture isn't inline with what's on the table for our region ATM. We really need that SE wrap for a cold core, cut-off to become useful - it's a fine line we walk with the old cut-off.
We're getting there... 12Z run for almost all models puts us in the firing line for a good shot at a season-starting cut-off. If it hangs in there, we won't know whether this will deliver or not until maybe 2-3 days out, even then with limited certainty. Looking positive though. Placement of Low on EC and especially The Canuck is banging!! EC The Canuck GFS AXS-G
Interesting note the variation in core pressures. GEM at 991 , GFS at 1013. EC split between. @ 168hrs
It's likely a second cold snap pool will be just behind this system may need to extend the dates to 8-9th.
We thinking temps will be marginal on this bad boy? Main range will do well, top of Thredbo/Perisher. Not much cold about it.
Models on the fence I reckon. Some super cold, some marginal. If we take the last two systems as a sign of the times then I think anything above 16-1700m will do ok IMO... but still needs time to lock that in.
