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Predictions 5-9 June 2017

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Snow Blowey, May 30, 2017.

  1. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    ACCESS has a nice southerly cold blast on 5 June morphing into a super ECL by 6 and 7 June. GFS doesn't go with it. EC makes it all a little less dramatic.

    [​IMG]
     
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  2. ecowain

    ecowain One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    If that comes off, there might be skiing in Dubbo. Looks a bit far fetched.
     
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  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    It would be a Baw Baw / Thredbo special.
    Not enough agreement in the models to have any confidence yet.
     
  4. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    All over the place last few days
     
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  5. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    A little sprinkle

     
    #5 Nightskywatcher, May 30, 2017
    Last edited: May 30, 2017
  6. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow on the forecast for Canberra next Tuesday. Will undoubtedly change before then, but an interesting note considering I will be in town that week...
     
  7. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    5-8 June system looks like a nice cut off low.
    [​IMG]
    540 line and other rain-snow lines shows full proper cutoff. Would bring snow to weird places.
    [​IMG]
    15-25cm with snow to the CTs and BMs. Like I said snow in weird places on the EC solution with not much for Vic.
     
  8. Snorkler

    Snorkler Part of the Furniture

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    Maybe that warm tasman will come into play with cut-off/ECLs progressing.
     
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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS still muckin' around playing silly buggers in the bight...
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 00Z backing away from this one a little with a bit of an early peak (probably off the back of today's data). Still a bit in it if it verifies.
    [​IMG]
     
  11. nfip

    nfip Cold 'n Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS stil with cut-off int the Bight and wandering cold pool drifting East.
    Spag concurs with GFS.
    edit : for now
     
  12. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Weird scenes inside the goldmine. Not having a bar of this. I am going to the club for an ale or 2
     
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  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  14. nfip

    nfip Cold 'n Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking rather GFS 'ish...
    [​IMG]
     
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Psst. It is GFS.
     
  16. nfip

    nfip Cold 'n Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well there you go !!!
    I thought it was her own custom job....
    time to read up .
     
  17. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    Kletterer, Claude Cat and nfip like this.
  18. nfip

    nfip Cold 'n Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thx @jwx .
    We have a saying in my Trade / biz.
    "Lot to learn !"
     
  19. Astro666

    Astro666 One of Us

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    Spag not convinced. Too early to call.

     
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  20. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Blurrghh not liking the look of that cut off scenario with the low over southern WA, however, that's not unheard of for June and given how warm it has been up until now
     
  21. nfip

    nfip Cold 'n Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah , and like Astro says.
    it's early days
     
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  22. nickxylophone

    nickxylophone Hard Yards

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    [​IMG]

    GFS 06Z coming a bit more in line.
     
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 06Z yoyo. Back on.[​IMG]
     
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  24. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well GFS, AXS have now jumped into bed together. AXS looking bullish AF.
    [​IMG]
     
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  26. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Divergence and temp at 800 .
     
  27. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    GEFS spag not quite buying it.
     
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  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Canucks think cuttoff

    [​IMG]
     
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  29. nfip

    nfip Cold 'n Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I thought same but thats still 00z run CC.
    waiting on EC and CMC to update to 06z
     
  30. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    One of Kletterer's plots. -30 500mb heights, juicy 540 line. But it's only GFS.
     
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  31. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC doesn't update to 06z. Only 00z and 12z.
     
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  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    There's 06 runs for EC and CMC?
     
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yep.
     
  34. nfip

    nfip Cold 'n Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not soz ^^
     
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  35. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    Wondering do i read this in a headstand position or do i flip the 60cm monitor upside down. :)
     
  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The interesting thing that GFS highlights about a cut-off scenario is that it's going to be short on moisture without that Tasman feed. GFS really turns it up after it draws in that Tasman moisture feed.
    That's why I'd discount (but not exclude) AXS & CMC at this stage. Particularly with AXS, the progression of moisture isn't inline with what's on the table for our region ATM.
    We really need that SE wrap for a cold core, cut-off to become useful - it's a fine line we walk with the old cut-off.
     
  37. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Tasman love :D
     
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  38. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    GEFS ens runs sides the cutoff across SA and into VIC.
     
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  39. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Haha - I will post it facing Australia next time :thumbs:
     
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  40. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Settling restless kid, checking maps.
    Wack.
    4 day rule for this calamity
     
  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    We're getting there... 12Z run for almost all models puts us in the firing line for a good shot at a season-starting cut-off.

    If it hangs in there, we won't know whether this will deliver or not until maybe 2-3 days out, even then with limited certainty. Looking positive though. Placement of Low on EC and especially The Canuck is banging!!

    EC


    The Canuck


    GFS


    AXS-G
     
    #41 POW_hungry, May 31, 2017
    Last edited: May 31, 2017
  42. nfip

    nfip Cold 'n Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Interesting note the variation in core pressures.
    GEM at 991 , GFS at 1013.
    EC split between.
    @ 168hrs
     
  43. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    It's likely a second cold snap pool will be just behind this system
    may need to extend the dates to 8-9th.
     
  44. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    We thinking temps will be marginal on this bad boy? Main range will do well, top of Thredbo/Perisher. Not much cold about it.
     
  45. nfip

    nfip Cold 'n Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tasman low makes opening weekend wx looking nasty.
    edit : make that an ECL
     
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Models on the fence I reckon. Some super cold, some marginal. If we take the last two systems as a sign of the times then I think anything above 16-1700m will do ok IMO... but still needs time to lock that in.
     
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  47. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    Models look icey to me.
     
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  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    ...But dicey on 18Z. The trend on GFS lacks continuity and consistency.
     
  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS looking a little more realistic moisture-wise. Bloody cold too.
     
  50. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    Not expecting much of a change on the GFS 00z run its basically just the 18z with interpolation.