Predictions 5-9 June 2017

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Snow Blowey, May 30, 2017.

  1. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    ACCESS has a nice southerly cold blast on 5 June morphing into a super ECL by 6 and 7 June. GFS doesn't go with it. EC makes it all a little less dramatic.

    [​IMG]
     
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  2. ecowain

    ecowain Dedicated Member

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    If that comes off, there might be skiing in Dubbo. Looks a bit far fetched.
     
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  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    It would be a Baw Baw / Thredbo special.
    Not enough agreement in the models to have any confidence yet.
     
  4. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    All over the place last few days
     
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  5. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher Active Member

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    A little sprinkle

     
    #5 Nightskywatcher, May 30, 2017
    Last edited: May 30, 2017
  6. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU Dedicated Member
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    Snow on the forecast for Canberra next Tuesday. Will undoubtedly change before then, but an interesting note considering I will be in town that week...
     
  7. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    5-8 June system looks like a nice cut off low.
    [​IMG]
    540 line and other rain-snow lines shows full proper cutoff. Would bring snow to weird places.
    [​IMG]
    15-25cm with snow to the CTs and BMs. Like I said snow in weird places on the EC solution with not much for Vic.
     
  8. Snorkler

    Snorkler Part of the Furniture

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    Maybe that warm tasman will come into play with cut-off/ECLs progressing.
     
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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    GFS still muckin' around playing silly buggers in the bight...
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    EC 00Z backing away from this one a little with a bit of an early peak (probably off the back of today's data). Still a bit in it if it verifies.
    [​IMG]
     
  11. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    GFS stil with cut-off int the Bight and wandering cold pool drifting East.
    Spag concurs with GFS.
    edit : for now
     
  12. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Weird scenes inside the goldmine. Not having a bar of this. I am going to the club for an ale or 2
     
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  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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  14. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Looking rather GFS 'ish...
    [​IMG]
     
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Psst. It is GFS.
     
  16. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Well there you go !!!
    I thought it was her own custom job....
    time to read up .
     
  17. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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  18. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Thx @jwx .
    We have a saying in my Trade / biz.
    "Lot to learn !"
     
  19. Astro666

    Astro666 Well-Known Member
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    Spag not convinced. Too early to call.

     
  20. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Blurrghh not liking the look of that cut off scenario with the low over southern WA, however, that's not unheard of for June and given how warm it has been up until now
     
  21. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Yeah , and like Astro says.
    it's early days
     
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  22. nickxylophone

    nickxylophone New Member

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    [​IMG]

    GFS 06Z coming a bit more in line.
     
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    GFS 06Z yoyo. Back on.[​IMG]
     
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  24. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Well GFS, AXS have now jumped into bed together. AXS looking bullish AF.
    [​IMG]
     
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  26. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Divergence and temp at 800 .
     
  27. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    GEFS spag not quite buying it.
     
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  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Canucks think cuttoff

    [​IMG]
     
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  29. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    I thought same but thats still 00z run CC.
    waiting on EC and CMC to update to 06z
     
  30. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    One of Kletterer's plots. -30 500mb heights, juicy 540 line. But it's only GFS.
     
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  31. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    EC doesn't update to 06z. Only 00z and 12z.
     
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  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    There's 06 runs for EC and CMC?
     
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Yep.
     
  34. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Not soz ^^
     
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  35. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    Wondering do i read this in a headstand position or do i flip the 60cm monitor upside down. :)
     
  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    The interesting thing that GFS highlights about a cut-off scenario is that it's going to be short on moisture without that Tasman feed. GFS really turns it up after it draws in that Tasman moisture feed.
    That's why I'd discount (but not exclude) AXS & CMC at this stage. Particularly with AXS, the progression of moisture isn't inline with what's on the table for our region ATM.
    We really need that SE wrap for a cold core, cut-off to become useful - it's a fine line we walk with the old cut-off.
     
  37. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Tasman love :D
     
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  38. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    [​IMG]

    GEFS ens runs sides the cutoff across SA and into VIC.
     
  39. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Haha - I will post it facing Australia next time :thumbs:
     
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  40. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Settling restless kid, checking maps.
    Wack.
    4 day rule for this calamity
     
  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    We're getting there... 12Z run for almost all models puts us in the firing line for a good shot at a season-starting cut-off.

    If it hangs in there, we won't know whether this will deliver or not until maybe 2-3 days out, even then with limited certainty. Looking positive though. Placement of Low on EC and especially The Canuck is banging!!

    EC


    The Canuck


    GFS


    AXS-G
     
    #41 POW_hungry, May 31, 2017
    Last edited: May 31, 2017
  42. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Interesting note the variation in core pressures.
    GEM at 991 , GFS at 1013.
    EC split between.
    @ 168hrs
     
  43. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    It's likely a second cold snap pool will be just behind this system
    may need to extend the dates to 8-9th.
     
  44. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    We thinking temps will be marginal on this bad boy? Main range will do well, top of Thredbo/Perisher. Not much cold about it.
     
  45. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Tasman low makes opening weekend wx looking nasty.
    edit : make that an ECL
     
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Models on the fence I reckon. Some super cold, some marginal. If we take the last two systems as a sign of the times then I think anything above 16-1700m will do ok IMO... but still needs time to lock that in.
     
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  47. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    Models look icey to me.
     
  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    ...But dicey on 18Z. The trend on GFS lacks continuity and consistency.
     
  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    AXS looking a little more realistic moisture-wise. Bloody cold too.
     
  50. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    Not expecting much of a change on the GFS 00z run its basically just the 18z with interpolation.