Predictions 5-9 June 2017

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Snow Blowey, May 30, 2017.

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  1. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    ACCESS has a nice southerly cold blast on 5 June morphing into a super ECL by 6 and 7 June. GFS doesn't go with it. EC makes it all a little less dramatic.

    [​IMG]
     
    #1 Snow Blowey, May 30, 2017
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  2. ecowain

    ecowain One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    If that comes off, there might be skiing in Dubbo. Looks a bit far fetched.
     
    #2 ecowain, May 30, 2017
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  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    It would be a Baw Baw / Thredbo special.
    Not enough agreement in the models to have any confidence yet.
     
    #3 Claude Cat, May 30, 2017
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  4. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    All over the place last few days
     
    #4 The Plowking, May 30, 2017
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  5. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher One of Us

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    A little sprinkle

     
    #5 Nightskywatcher, May 30, 2017
    Last edited: May 30, 2017
  6. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow on the forecast for Canberra next Tuesday. Will undoubtedly change before then, but an interesting note considering I will be in town that week...
     
    #6 DiscoStuAU, May 30, 2017
  7. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    5-8 June system looks like a nice cut off low.
    [​IMG]
    540 line and other rain-snow lines shows full proper cutoff. Would bring snow to weird places.
    [​IMG]
    15-25cm with snow to the CTs and BMs. Like I said snow in weird places on the EC solution with not much for Vic.
     
    #7 Jellybeans, May 30, 2017
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  8. Snorkler

    Snorkler Part of the Furniture

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    Maybe that warm tasman will come into play with cut-off/ECLs progressing.
     
    #8 Snorkler, May 30, 2017
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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS still muckin' around playing silly buggers in the bight...
     
    #9 POW_hungry, May 30, 2017
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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 00Z backing away from this one a little with a bit of an early peak (probably off the back of today's data). Still a bit in it if it verifies.
    [​IMG]
     
    #10 POW_hungry, May 30, 2017
  11. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS stil with cut-off int the Bight and wandering cold pool drifting East.
    Spag concurs with GFS.
    edit : for now
     
    #11 nfip, May 30, 2017
  12. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Weird scenes inside the goldmine. Not having a bar of this. I am going to the club for an ale or 2
     
    #12 Kletterer, May 30, 2017
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  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
     
    #13 POW_hungry, May 30, 2017
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  14. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking rather GFS 'ish...
    [​IMG]
     
    #14 nfip, May 30, 2017
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Psst. It is GFS.
     
    #15 POW_hungry, May 30, 2017
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  16. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well there you go !!!
    I thought it was her own custom job....
    time to read up .
     
    #16 nfip, May 30, 2017
  17. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    #17 jwx, May 30, 2017
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  18. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thx @jwx .
    We have a saying in my Trade / biz.
    "Lot to learn !"
     
    #18 nfip, May 30, 2017
  19. Astro666

    Astro666 One of Us

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    Spag not convinced. Too early to call.

     
    #19 Astro666, May 30, 2017
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  20. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Blurrghh not liking the look of that cut off scenario with the low over southern WA, however, that's not unheard of for June and given how warm it has been up until now
     
    #20 FourSquare04, May 30, 2017
  21. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah , and like Astro says.
    it's early days
     
    #21 nfip, May 30, 2017
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  22. nickxylophone

    nickxylophone Early Days

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    [​IMG]

    GFS 06Z coming a bit more in line.
     
    #22 nickxylophone, May 30, 2017
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 06Z yoyo. Back on.[​IMG]
     
    #23 POW_hungry, May 30, 2017
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  24. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    #24 Kletterer, May 30, 2017
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  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well GFS, AXS have now jumped into bed together. AXS looking bullish AF.
    [​IMG]
     
    #25 POW_hungry, May 30, 2017
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  26. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Divergence and temp at 800 .
     
    #26 Kletterer, May 30, 2017
  27. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    GEFS spag not quite buying it.
     
    #27 Jellybeans, May 30, 2017
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  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Canucks think cuttoff

    [​IMG]
     
    #28 Claude Cat, May 30, 2017
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  29. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I thought same but thats still 00z run CC.
    waiting on EC and CMC to update to 06z
     
    #29 nfip, May 30, 2017
  30. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    One of Kletterer's plots. -30 500mb heights, juicy 540 line. But it's only GFS.
     
    #30 Jellybeans, May 30, 2017
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  31. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC doesn't update to 06z. Only 00z and 12z.
     
    #31 Jellybeans, May 30, 2017
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  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    There's 06 runs for EC and CMC?
     
    #32 Claude Cat, May 30, 2017
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yep.
     
    #33 Claude Cat, May 30, 2017
  34. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not soz ^^
     
    #34 nfip, May 30, 2017
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  35. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    Wondering do i read this in a headstand position or do i flip the 60cm monitor upside down. :)
     
    #35 jwx, May 30, 2017
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  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The interesting thing that GFS highlights about a cut-off scenario is that it's going to be short on moisture without that Tasman feed. GFS really turns it up after it draws in that Tasman moisture feed.
    That's why I'd discount (but not exclude) AXS & CMC at this stage. Particularly with AXS, the progression of moisture isn't inline with what's on the table for our region ATM.
    We really need that SE wrap for a cold core, cut-off to become useful - it's a fine line we walk with the old cut-off.
     
    #36 POW_hungry, May 30, 2017
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  37. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tasman love :D
     
    #37 Kletterer, May 30, 2017
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  38. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    GEFS ens runs sides the cutoff across SA and into VIC.
     
    #38 jwx, May 30, 2017
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  39. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Haha - I will post it facing Australia next time :thumbs:
     
    #39 Jellybeans, May 30, 2017
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  40. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Settling restless kid, checking maps.
    Wack.
    4 day rule for this calamity
     
    #40 The Plowking, May 31, 2017
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  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    We're getting there... 12Z run for almost all models puts us in the firing line for a good shot at a season-starting cut-off.

    If it hangs in there, we won't know whether this will deliver or not until maybe 2-3 days out, even then with limited certainty. Looking positive though. Placement of Low on EC and especially The Canuck is banging!!

    EC


    The Canuck


    GFS


    AXS-G
     
    #41 POW_hungry, May 31, 2017
    Last edited: May 31, 2017
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  42. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Interesting note the variation in core pressures.
    GEM at 991 , GFS at 1013.
    EC split between.
    @ 168hrs
     
    #42 nfip, May 31, 2017
  43. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    It's likely a second cold snap pool will be just behind this system
    may need to extend the dates to 8-9th.
     
    #43 jwx, May 31, 2017
  44. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    We thinking temps will be marginal on this bad boy? Main range will do well, top of Thredbo/Perisher. Not much cold about it.
     
    #44 mick chopps, May 31, 2017
  45. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tasman low makes opening weekend wx looking nasty.
    edit : make that an ECL
     
    #45 nfip, May 31, 2017
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Models on the fence I reckon. Some super cold, some marginal. If we take the last two systems as a sign of the times then I think anything above 16-1700m will do ok IMO... but still needs time to lock that in.
     
    #46 POW_hungry, May 31, 2017
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  47. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    Models look icey to me.
     
    #47 jwx, May 31, 2017
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  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    ...But dicey on 18Z. The trend on GFS lacks continuity and consistency.
     
    #48 POW_hungry, May 31, 2017
  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS looking a little more realistic moisture-wise. Bloody cold too.
     
    #49 POW_hungry, May 31, 2017
  50. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    Not expecting much of a change on the GFS 00z run its basically just the 18z with interpolation.
     
    #50 jwx, May 31, 2017
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