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Predictions 5-9 June 2017

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Snow Blowey, May 30, 2017.

  1. Xwing

    Xwing One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Didn't know Weather could be so girly....so bitchy. Well FFS, I only posted it as I came across it - I don't do facebook or follow Higgins.
     
  2. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Any contribution is welcome around here, but folk don't often take kindly to commercial operators who deal in absolute forecasts.
     
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  3. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Off topic mid-thread OBS...
    Backside of Feathertop just outta Smoko. Figured no one is really looking in the autumn's over thread, so posting here. High pressure doing its thing, -2, not a cloud in the sky.
    On my way to Hoth system purely for OBS and to get mountain vibes into my veins :emoji_snowflake:
    Might drop into heavenly for proper OBS, we'll see...
    [​IMG]
     
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  4. kiter

    kiter One of Us

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    Does this offer any hope ?
     
  5. Tanuki

    Tanuki Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    for Monday, yes
     
  6. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    And it was over...

    Do do do, before it began.....
     
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  7. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Models are still predicting a low to form, just not as deep and not as close to the east coast. Position is everything as far as snow is concerned. So they haven't changed that much but the outcome as far as snow is concerned is now totally different.
     
  8. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]

    Its still a tight low on the 12z run cold with good pv .And the trough still cuts off from the polar front.
     
    #158 jwx, Jun 2, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2017
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  9. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie One of Us

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    On again, off again, on again.... seems to be changing every run.
     
  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Well, that's yesterday's news, so if you want to go back in time, yes.

    IMO still potential for 5-10cm, especially in the south, but not a season starter.
     
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  11. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

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    And how AXS and GFS forecast three days apart an identical system? It may reappear over the next few days.
     
  12. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    GFS 18z [​IMG]
     
  13. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    EC has been consistent for over a fortnight with this system.
     
    #163 jwx, Jun 2, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2017
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  14. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    The latest EPS ens in.The Rolls Royce of 500mb modelling

    [​IMG]
     
  15. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Particularly those who deal in hysterical hyperbolic clickbait headlines
     
  16. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    It offers 10cm of hope.
     
  17. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    looks nice there.
     
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  18. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    WOW we agree on something.:)
     
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  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Models have been influenced by a large anomaly somewhere in the world, that has shifted progged scenarios (systems), bit like the butterfly effect if you will. Yesterday @Kletterer mentioned Alberta Storms but that's something I haven't seen or looked into. Pretty common to have a big shift 5-6 days out.
    It's certainly not to say it won't be back in the next couple of runs but with nearly all models agreeing on a block it's less likely.

    Nonetheless there's still some hope for 5-10cm IMO.
     
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  20. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Zonal Wind Anomolies have been changing considerably lately.
     
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  21. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I think the hope is wandering now.

    ECMWF was current at 10 pm last night, where as GFS was current of 4 am this morning. GFS is last run.

    It seems to be falling off the models on each model run. But hey it could come back.
     
  22. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    No the last EC (12Z) run was in around 3-4 am this morning.
     
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  23. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    The EC solution makes more sense on the synoptic's then the models with the block over the entire continent as the polar front move over oz. The upper-level trough would normally dig in to the ridge as the EC 500mb displays. I would like to see a GFS parra model the ops has been dismal according to RM in the N-H so maybe its noisy in the shem as well.

    [​IMG]
     
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  24. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I know its early, but what is the consensus/prognosis on that green blob following about 4-5 days after?
     
  25. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  26. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    Its another polar trough.



    On another note the GFS op's performance in the NH as per RM
    Unfortunately one is not done for the shem Considering it a global
    model likely its the same for the shem @500mb

    [​IMG]
     
    #176 jwx, Jun 2, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2017
  27. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Location:
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    UTC (Z) is 10 hours behind Sydney.

    So a run with the 12 Z Thursday Stamp. Refers to a complete model run in our time at 10 pm Thursday.

    A run with the 18 Z Thursday Stamp. Refers to a compete model run in our time at 4 am Friday.

    ECMWF with 12 Z Thursday Stamp (see top left corner)

    [​IMG]

    GFS with 18Z Thursday Stamp (see top left corner)
    [​IMG]
     
  28. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Correct me if I am wrong but ECMWF is run every 12 hrs where as GFS is every 6 hrs.

    How long does it take to compute the model?
     
  29. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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  30. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  31. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    CMC 12z was showing the trough [​IMG]
     
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  32. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes.
    And approximately 6 hours, then it takes time to upload to the server on their side, which is why it doesn't all come at once.
     
  33. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not enough RI for an ECL.
     
  34. Ramshead

    Ramshead One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Weatherzone has it as a clipper for the mainland at best. BoM ditto

    [​IMG]
     
  35. Tanuki

    Tanuki Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    More changes
     
  36. Ramshead

    Ramshead One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Weatherzone has it as a clipper for the mainland at best. Strange, as they usually mirror BoM. Who does their charts?
    Yeah, and some of the more easterly resorts miiiight just do well outa that low on Tuesday if enough SE onshore moisture penetrates inland, but that kinda snow is unreliable as
     
  37. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    You guys over hyped this system with all the colourful maps and predictions of 50cm + snow and now its all gorn.
    All we have now is a big fat arse high sitting over us for next period which is only good for artificial snow.
    EDIT. I am taking the Mickey out of the system's let down.I am also guilty for sometimes getting excited over pumped up charts.
     
    #187 cookieman, Jun 2, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2017
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  38. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

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    "You guys"... gee wizz, the "hype" was about predictions five, six or more days out. Raising hopes so far out always has an element of risk...
     
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  39. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    I don't know who makes Weatherzone charts, but the 4day BOM chart is based off EC model data, I am pretty sure.
     
  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    BOM uses EC a lot.
    1pm chart would use a lot of the 12Z EC info, probably too early for 00z run data?
     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC still shows hope for a sting in the tail.

    [​IMG]
     
  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    CMC is in complete alignment now.

    [​IMG]

    GFS - there's nothing there.
     
  43. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

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    "Fake weather" anyone?
     
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  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
  45. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    A little more detail.
    @CC The EC 00z was looking good for snow the trough is digging in to the ridge over the alps.
    its not a cut off on the 00z.

    [​IMG]
     
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  46. cin

    cin Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Fizzer of the decade
    High says hi!!!
     
  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    We've had worse.
     
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  48. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    Suggest you go hiking in shorts and a tee shirt in the alps on 5/6 if your that confident.

    Troughs always weaken the ridging as they move through.
     
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  49. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC is still on it.
    It isn't a fizzer yet!
     
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  50. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    Indeed it is. Some just have difficulties with interpreting 00z the plot.