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Predictions 5-9 June 2017

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Snow Blowey, May 30, 2017.

  1. NewTurns

    NewTurns One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    That is what it is all about.
     
    DiscoStuAU likes this.
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    ...As is the Canuck.
     
  3. Sno Sno SNO

    Sno Sno SNO Hard Yards

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    I'll run with your optimism...
     
  4. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

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    Paul Ya high is a deflating??
     
    cin likes this.
  5. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes. Not so easy for some of us to read a blocking high or if the ridge / high will break down. Comes with knowledge experience. Simple I know :)
    Work in progress .......
     
    #205 nfip, Jun 3, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 3, 2017
  6. cin

    cin Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hi !


    and Hi !!!
     
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Not much more than a dusting on EC on this morning's run.
     
  8. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    The 00z is plot2 looks a little better than yesterdays 18z plot1.
    p1
    [​IMG]

    plot2
    [​IMG]
    cold pool is displayed as a wider area over the alps.




    [​IMG]
    cold trough likely be some good storms about as it punches into the dry line on the ridge.




    [​IMG]
    Enjoy the arctic blast of the 00z.run, as it again displays the trough digging into the ridge over the alps.
     
    nfip, Claude Cat, Scoober and 6 others like this.
  9. nickxylophone

    nickxylophone Hard Yards

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    GFS has a bit of a follow up progged for late on the 8th - 9th. Nothing on EC and it doesn't look like much moisture

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC still likes this for Monday night. Good for 10-15cm if it works out.
    IMO
    Even GFS is back on board.
     
    IAB, Jellybeans, nfip and 7 others like this.
  11. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

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    Yes, GFS improving, and a follow up system Friday.

    [​IMG]
     
    Snowy Joey, nfip, MickM and 2 others like this.
  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I don't see much opportunity for rain either (maybe a little on Wednesday). Snow down to ~1100m throughout Tuesday IMO.
     
    Snow Blowey, nfip, MarkV and 2 others like this.
  13. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    The progression looks strangely familiar.

    I think the forecast will develop further (more snow) and end up looking like the charts posted on the forum last week.

    Might have to wax the board after all.

    But the high is awfully fat at 1036 Hpa
     
    Stephen James Allen likes this.
  14. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    18 Z Saturday forecast

    [​IMG]
     
  15. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wow! What a comeback from GFS.
    [​IMG] .
    GFS shows that node coming up the Alps.
    [​IMG]
    Same on EC.
    [​IMG]
    Same on CMC.
     
    Lady Penelope, cin and IAB like this.
  16. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Squeezing the High out.
     
    #216 Kletterer, Jun 4, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 4, 2017
    IAB and Nightskywatcher like this.
  17. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Come on guys. We all know the models only ever downgrade.... Selective memory told me so.
     
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  18. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    I only care about the upgrades ;)
     
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  19. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]

    The GFS op's cuts off the trough and shows a developing moist tasman low off the east coast
     
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  20. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    First one through to an ECL where it may hang around as 2nd one moves through to join the party.
     
    cookieman likes this.
  21. Stephen James Allen

    Stephen James Allen Addicted

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    Well, I'm hiking on the JLW, so it is likely to rain or snow...
     
  22. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    Some of the suburbs will likely see some localised significant weather on monday
    as this system punches in. And blizzard conditions in the mix for the alps hikers.
     
    #222 jwx, Jun 4, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 4, 2017
  23. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Some busy Vertical Velocity kicking about.
     
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  24. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

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    Happier days . I see 3 events in 2 weeks..
     
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  25. cin

    cin Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    looks like I should have said
    High Bye!
     
  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC (pity I can't get a 36h map)
    [​IMG]

    GFS is a bit meh this afternoon

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Seems locked and loaded now.
    As to the 8th & 9th followup, it looks very weak except on GFS IMO
     
    nfip and POW_hungry like this.
  27. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    [​IMG]

    Not much moisture on accessr
     
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS doesn't think so either.
    [​IMG]

    Although I think GFS is undercooking it.
     
    #228 Claude Cat, Jun 4, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 4, 2017
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  29. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes low precip associated with this system.

    5-10cm on ACCESS.
    5-10cm on EC.
    5cm on GFS.
     
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    BOM has a bit more.

    [​IMG]
     
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Numbers seem about right although I think GFS is showing less than that.
     
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  32. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    GFS shows 5cm ish.
    EC shows 10cm ish.
    Somewhere in between that, would be my punt.
     
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  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM leaning more towards the EC prog. Below is Thredbo.
     
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  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks to me like Tassie might shadow a bit for Vic resorts. Whilst the onshore flow Tuesday night might surprise through the back door behind Tassie for NSW resorts IMO.
     
  35. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    I would not say no to 10-15cm of snow late Monday through to Wednesday.
     
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I think there's enough wrap around on Monday night to avoid most of Tasmania. It does dry out after that, with a bit for NSW as the low develops in the Tasman.
     
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  37. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sooo much uncertainty with all of this for now tho.

    Hence low profile = I've had nothing to contribute. :)
     
  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM says snow down 1200m. I think NSW may see some as low as 1100m but it's not a very deep airmass. -25C @500mb over the Alps at best on Tuesday AM.
     
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  40. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's never looked much of a system imo.
    No model agreement.
    Clipper at best.
    5cm vic.
    Touch more nsw.
    Be happily surprised if it's any more.
     
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  41. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yer I'm not feeling it from my obs is all.
    There will be maybe 5 or so as you say and IMO.
    Hope I'm wrong.
    Early days yet. very early days.....
     
  42. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    any hints would be most appreciated.
    this is ski forums not wx forums so be good for any clues for us not so ..:nerd: :)
     
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  43. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    Heard on the grape vine they may name this low little johnny.
     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  45. jwx

    jwx One of Us

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    Yourself cc,pow,jelly,Keletterer all understand modeling.
    You and pow being surfies. i would think you both would have grown up reading synoptic plots in the news papers and they would be red meat to you guys.:)
     
  46. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Condescending....even with the smile ;)
     
  47. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    This just doesn't excite me for vic.
     
    derwent and mick chopps like this.
  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS profiles for the main moisture band pushing through early to mid-arvo Tuesday says it's all surface influence. Moist @ sub 3km (700mb) suggests that some orographic shadowing, coupled with >1022hPa surface pressure greatly limits any substantial falls here IMO.

    Tuesday 4pm:
    [​IMG]
     
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  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    At that point it's over for Victoria - Baw Baw might just get a little bit out of the tail.
    Buller/Falls/Hotham will get theirs 6-8 hours before.
     
  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    At that point it's over for Victoria - Baw Baw might just get a little bit out of the tail.
    Buller/Falls/Hotham will get theirs 6-8 hours before.