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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Snow Blowey, May 30, 2017.
That is what it is all about.
...As is the Canuck.
I'll run with your optimism...
Paul Ya high is a deflating??
Yes. Not so easy for some of us to read a blocking high or if the ridge / high will break down. Comes with knowledge experience. Simple I know
Work in progress .......
and Hi !!!
Not much more than a dusting on EC on this morning's run.
The 00z is plot2 looks a little better than yesterdays 18z plot1.
cold pool is displayed as a wider area over the alps.
cold trough likely be some good storms about as it punches into the dry line on the ridge.
Enjoy the arctic blast of the 00z.run, as it again displays the trough digging into the ridge over the alps.
GFS has a bit of a follow up progged for late on the 8th - 9th. Nothing on EC and it doesn't look like much moisture
EC still likes this for Monday night. Good for 10-15cm if it works out.
Even GFS is back on board.
Yes, GFS improving, and a follow up system Friday.
I don't see much opportunity for rain either (maybe a little on Wednesday). Snow down to ~1100m throughout Tuesday IMO.
The progression looks strangely familiar.
I think the forecast will develop further (more snow) and end up looking like the charts posted on the forum last week.
Might have to wax the board after all.
But the high is awfully fat at 1036 Hpa
18 Z Saturday forecast
Wow! What a comeback from GFS.
GFS shows that node coming up the Alps.
Same on EC.
Same on CMC.
Squeezing the High out.
Come on guys. We all know the models only ever downgrade.... Selective memory told me so.
I only care about the upgrades
The GFS op's cuts off the trough and shows a developing moist tasman low off the east coast
First one through to an ECL where it may hang around as 2nd one moves through to join the party.
Well, I'm hiking on the JLW, so it is likely to rain or snow...
Some of the suburbs will likely see some localised significant weather on monday
as this system punches in. And blizzard conditions in the mix for the alps hikers.
Some busy Vertical Velocity kicking about.
Happier days . I see 3 events in 2 weeks..
looks like I should have said
EC (pity I can't get a 36h map)
GFS is a bit meh this afternoon
Seems locked and loaded now.
As to the 8th & 9th followup, it looks very weak except on GFS IMO
Not much moisture on accessr
GFS doesn't think so either.
Although I think GFS is undercooking it.
Yes low precip associated with this system.
5-10cm on ACCESS.
5-10cm on EC.
5cm on GFS.
BOM has a bit more.
Numbers seem about right although I think GFS is showing less than that.
GFS shows 5cm ish.
EC shows 10cm ish.
Somewhere in between that, would be my punt.
BoM leaning more towards the EC prog. Below is Thredbo.
Looks to me like Tassie might shadow a bit for Vic resorts. Whilst the onshore flow Tuesday night might surprise through the back door behind Tassie for NSW resorts IMO.
I would not say no to 10-15cm of snow late Monday through to Wednesday.
I think there's enough wrap around on Monday night to avoid most of Tasmania. It does dry out after that, with a bit for NSW as the low develops in the Tasman.
Sooo much uncertainty with all of this for now tho.
Hence low profile = I've had nothing to contribute.
BoM says snow down 1200m. I think NSW may see some as low as 1100m but it's not a very deep airmass. -25C @500mb over the Alps at best on Tuesday AM.
It's never looked much of a system imo.
No model agreement.
Clipper at best.
Touch more nsw.
Be happily surprised if it's any more.
Yer I'm not feeling it from my obs is all.
There will be maybe 5 or so as you say and IMO.
Hope I'm wrong.
Early days yet. very early days.....
any hints would be most appreciated.
this is ski forums not wx forums so be good for any clues for us not so ..
Heard on the grape vine they may name this low little johnny.
Yourself cc,pow,jelly,Keletterer all understand modeling.
You and pow being surfies. i would think you both would have grown up reading synoptic plots in the news papers and they would be red meat to you guys.
Condescending....even with the smile
This just doesn't excite me for vic.
GFS profiles for the main moisture band pushing through early to mid-arvo Tuesday says it's all surface influence. Moist @ sub 3km (700mb) suggests that some orographic shadowing, coupled with >1022hPa surface pressure greatly limits any substantial falls here IMO.
At that point it's over for Victoria - Baw Baw might just get a little bit out of the tail.
Buller/Falls/Hotham will get theirs 6-8 hours before.