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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Snow Blowey, May 30, 2017.
GFS actually looks stronger for Thursday than tomorrow. No other model going with it though.
Yeah, it also looks like a big opportunity for snow-making on Thursday (day) IMO, so potentially a win-win.
I reckon we could open some decent terrain for QBW with the snowmaking later in the week and the 5-10cm on Tuesday.
Synoptic charts , yep bread n butter since 14 yo...
But the intricacies of the variety models , few more layers to it than that.
Interpreting the breakdown etc we dealing with this week not so easy .
The 00z EC was quite nice.
All the right ingredients are being displayed here.
Starts digging in.
Short and sharper on EC this morning, inline with GFS. ~5cm IMO
5cm for all the odd spots further north in elevated NSW too, away from main range.
259 replies for a 5cm dusting...
A measure of froth for QBW.
I blame SDS.
Thursday night doesn't look like it'll even touch the sides on GFS now. Clipper proper IMO.
Tassie picks up a taste though.
Snowmaking heaven from Thursday to Tuesday IMO.
To be fair this did start as a massive system for a while there and then turned into what it is... understandable that there was a bit of excitement
Steven Dank Syndrome ???
I've turned into a sad arse resort skier wanting fronts to move along to allow for sunshine and snowmaking.
Can start to dump properly in a couple of weeks when i've got some of my work under control.
The heights are forecast to start lowering in the pm hrs
as per the modeling 4pm +
woah. models go all in at long range...
stratocumulus clouds @ the head of the front Then some nice altostratus cloud to
First forecast is up:
Monday - A dry day. Snow begins in western areas at night, to 1800 metres at first then down to 1500 metres. Windy at night.
Tuesday - Snow likely, down to 1400 metres. Windy.
Wednesday - Snow likely in eastern resorts in the morning, rising to 1800 metres. Dry for all from the afternoon.
Thursday - A dry morning. The chance of snow in the afternoon and evening, to 1500 metres.
Friday - The chance of snow, to 1500 metres.
That's a big high.....it won't be moving quickly it has a continent to move over
I'm thinking 2-8 is conservative and 10+ is where i'm @ m-tues.
Hope you guys appreciate the effort the regulars ie cc pow jelly
kletterer put into this 5-9 thread. I think they did a excellent job
updating with this evolving forecast.
The knowledge and insight is invaluable.
Ya'll should be commended.
You too should be commended for your effort, as well as everyone else who makes up these threads.
JB tends to be in the conservative side I reckon.
I certainly love the work you guys and girls put into these threads.
Just one comment, it would be nice, for all the new people, if, once in a while, you could expand on the acronyms and terms you use. To understand the basis of the language you use is so important to overall understanding.
takes a lot of time checking , comparing , back checking , head scratching.
Thx to all.
Isn't there a weather guide thread... like a really old one?
yes there is.
@Claude Cat, you're a really old weather guide....
But seriously, where is it again?
Time in the saddle !
Home work , research...
Give up watchin telly
Try this for starters.
Found it @mick chopps
Time to update it @Claude Cat ?
Could be, and even referencing it every now and then would help newbys like me find the language.
I'm not talking every thread have a glossary. But every now and then expand on an acronym to make it easier to find the true meaning, search for SDS on Google, where do you start.
I keep pausing the tele to read the thread.
we did a refresh a while back.
I remember loading up all my bookmarks ...
This @Nightskywatcher, but it needs updating.
And btw SDS = Snow Deprivation Syndrome, not a weather term really.
SDS means Snow Deprivation Syndrome. Catch all explaination for shitpot or overly enthusiastic ski forum behaviour. Particularly prevalent From March-June.
and in Jan / Feb when your bros are in Japow and you at home....
Update from last year ...
That's a link thread...
I think @Nightskywatcher was looking more for a "explain this weather term" thread.
Thanks everyone for the thread deviation, we now return you to the normal predictive analysis.
Not much analysis needed now. 5-10cm is the predicted total for this system. Potential for isolated totals of 10cm+, but I wouldn't be counting on that for the resorts.
Now we move onto the next system, which is yet to be defined very well.
It will be somewhere in the weather history. I'll see if I can find it tonight.
Isn't this it?
Is it just me or has this system turned into a fizzer?
IMO if it hasn't already been predicted, it will be a Baw Baw / Buller system with predominant S direction
Yikes looks like we are in for some 'batten down the hatches' type weather over the next few days along the southern half of the east coast! Bit of Short Range Stormy S swell on the cards.....
Maybe Pin it again or make a new one?
Let me review tonight.
Thursday eve isn't looking much more than a flurry or dusting up-high at best on GFS now.
EC says dry as a....
BOM says no dice.
AXS says not a chance.
@1030hPa, that's a 0cm from me.