Predictions 5-9 June 2017

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Snow Blowey, May 30, 2017.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    GFS actually looks stronger for Thursday than tomorrow. No other model going with it though.

    [​IMG]
     
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  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Yeah, it also looks like a big opportunity for snow-making on Thursday (day) IMO, so potentially a win-win.
     
  3. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    I reckon we could open some decent terrain for QBW with the snowmaking later in the week and the 5-10cm on Tuesday.
     
  4. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Synoptic charts , yep bread n butter since 14 yo...
    But the intricacies of the variety models , few more layers to it than that.
    Interpreting the breakdown etc we dealing with this week not so easy .
     
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  5. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    The 00z EC was quite nice.


    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]




    [​IMG]




    [​IMG]





    [​IMG]




    [​IMG]

    All the right ingredients are being displayed here.
     
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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  7. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    30-36hrs

    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]

    Starts digging in.
     
    #257 jwx, Jun 4, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 4, 2017
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Short and sharper on EC this morning, inline with GFS. ~5cm IMO
     
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  9. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    5cm for all the odd spots further north in elevated NSW too, away from main range.
     
  10. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    259 replies for a 5cm dusting...
     
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  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    A measure of froth for QBW.
     
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  12. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    I blame SDS.
     
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  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Thursday night doesn't look like it'll even touch the sides on GFS now. Clipper proper IMO.
    Tassie picks up a taste though.

    Snowmaking heaven from Thursday to Tuesday IMO.
     
  14. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU Dedicated Member
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    To be fair this did start as a massive system for a while there and then turned into what it is... understandable that there was a bit of excitement
     
  15. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Steven Dank Syndrome ???
    :out:
     
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  16. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    I've turned into a sad arse resort skier wanting fronts to move along to allow for sunshine and snowmaking.

    Can start to dump properly in a couple of weeks when i've got some of my work under control.
     
  17. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    The heights are forecast to start lowering in the pm hrs
    as per the modeling 4pm +
     
  18. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    woah. models go all in at long range...
     
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  19. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    stratocumulus clouds @ the head of the front Then some nice altostratus cloud to
    follow.
    [​IMG]
     
    #269 jwx, Jun 5, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2017
  20. janesweather

    janesweather Dedicated Member

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    First forecast is up:

    Monday - A dry day. Snow begins in western areas at night, to 1800 metres at first then down to 1500 metres. Windy at night.

    Tuesday - Snow likely, down to 1400 metres. Windy.

    Wednesday - Snow likely in eastern resorts in the morning, rising to 1800 metres. Dry for all from the afternoon.

    Thursday - A dry morning. The chance of snow in the afternoon and evening, to 1500 metres.

    Friday - The chance of snow, to 1500 metres.

     
  21. melty68

    melty68 Dedicated Member

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    That's a big high.....it won't be moving quickly it has a continent to move over
     
  22. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    I'm thinking 2-8 is conservative and 10+ is where i'm @ m-tues.

    Hope you guys appreciate the effort the regulars ie cc pow jelly
    kletterer put into this 5-9 thread. I think they did a excellent job
    updating with this evolving forecast.
     
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  23. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    100%
    The knowledge and insight is invaluable.
    Ya'll should be commended.
     
  24. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    You too should be commended for your effort, as well as everyone else who makes up these threads.
    JB tends to be in the conservative side I reckon.
     
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  25. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher Active Member

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    I certainly love the work you guys and girls put into these threads.

    Just one comment, it would be nice, for all the new people, if, once in a while, you could expand on the acronyms and terms you use. To understand the basis of the language you use is so important to overall understanding.
     
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  26. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    this ^
    takes a lot of time checking , comparing , back checking , head scratching.
    Thx to all.
     
  27. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Isn't there a weather guide thread... like a really old one?
     
  28. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    yes there is.
    @Claude Cat, you're a really old weather guide.... LOL
    But seriously, where is it again?
     
  29. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Time in the saddle !
    Home work , research...
    Give up watchin telly ;)
    Try this for starters.
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/index.html
     
  30. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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  31. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher Active Member

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    Could be, and even referencing it every now and then would help newbys like me find the language.

    I'm not talking every thread have a glossary. But every now and then expand on an acronym to make it easier to find the true meaning, search for SDS on Google, where do you start.
     
  32. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher Active Member

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  33. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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  34. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    This @Nightskywatcher, but it needs updating.
    And btw SDS = Snow Deprivation Syndrome, not a weather term really.
     
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  35. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    SDS means Snow Deprivation Syndrome. Catch all explaination for shitpot or overly enthusiastic ski forum behaviour. Particularly prevalent From March-June.
     
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  36. melty68

    melty68 Dedicated Member

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    Insightful
     
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  37. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    and in Jan / Feb when your bros are in Japow and you at home....
     
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  38. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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  39. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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  40. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher Active Member

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    Thanks everyone for the thread deviation, we now return you to the normal predictive analysis.
     
  41. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Not much analysis needed now. 5-10cm is the predicted total for this system. Potential for isolated totals of 10cm+, but I wouldn't be counting on that for the resorts.

    Now we move onto the next system, which is yet to be defined very well.
     
  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    It will be somewhere in the weather history. I'll see if I can find it tonight.
     
  43. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  45. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Is it just me or has this system turned into a fizzer?
     
  46. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    IMO if it hasn't already been predicted, it will be a Baw Baw / Buller system with predominant S direction
     
  47. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Yikes looks like we are in for some 'batten down the hatches' type weather over the next few days along the southern half of the east coast! Bit of Short Range Stormy S swell on the cards.....

    [​IMG]
     
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  48. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Maybe Pin it again or make a new one?
     
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Let me review tonight.
     
  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Thursday eve isn't looking much more than a flurry or dusting up-high at best on GFS now.
    EC says dry as a....
    BOM says no dice.
    AXS says not a chance.

    @1030hPa, that's a 0cm from me.
    [​IMG]