Predictions 5-9 June 2017

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Snow Blowey, May 30, 2017.

  1. Sno Sno SNO

    Sno Sno SNO Active Member

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    Yes, if only there was another system on the horizon we could stop fantasising over this one. I know its going to be a real southerly change, but given its still 'no jacket' weather in Adelaide with clear skies its hard to take it seriously.:(
     
  2. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy Dedicated Member

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    The first real rollercoaster ride for the season........................always fun...........depressing..................fun............depressing..........fun..........
     
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  3. Froff Life

    Froff Life Dedicated Member
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    Doesn't look like there's much on the extended forecast :(
     
  4. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    My tip is - an upgrade.
     
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  5. Kenziepettit

    Kenziepettit Active Member
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    What's the go for wednesday? Most seem to be calling a clearish day, but I fail to see how from these forecasts on here.
     
  6. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    Please note the date the posts were made. The models have downgraded heaps since the thread was started. As have the BOM forecasts. Nothing like time and the weather to make model predictions 7 days out (and those commenting on them) look silly.
     
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  7. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    EC always had the Tasman / ECL scenario for this one. (Tuesday)
    GFS originally cut-off drifting across the bight.
    A lesson in it perhaps......
     
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  8. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    and blardy wet too.
    wouldn't that be nice on the hill with a bit of cold air.
    [​IMG]
     
  9. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Wednseday morning going to light up on the coast @FourSquare04 .
    [​IMG]
     
  10. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Buller and baw baw to perhaps get 15cm out of this.....
     
  11. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher Active Member

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    Can we put in a request to BOM to move that ECL about 250km SSW from where it is placed in the above picture?
     
  12. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    GFS for comparison sake.
    [​IMG]
     
  13. Sno Sno SNO

    Sno Sno SNO Active Member

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    Cant see it. if there's a decent amount of moisture i think it will be a bit warm IMO.
     
  14. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    there's about 1030 reason it will be denied :)
     
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  15. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Same model.
    Temps will be fine.
    resorts will be -4 or -6 at 1800m

    [​IMG]
     
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  16. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    This.
     
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  17. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Keep in mind @jwx has been posting EC models of a sooper cold (LWT) node for the past week or so.
    This still standing true to those.
     
  18. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Defnitely potential for 10cm+ snow at Buller if conditions align.
     
    #318 Jellybeans1000, Jun 5, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2017
  19. cin

    cin Part of the Furniture
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    Hi High :(
     
  20. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    There seems to be quite a lot of fluctuating vertical velocity at 700hPa in the GFS. Hopefully this will lead to a better use of available moisture.
     
  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    EC even moreso! The band hitting Tassie NW (see Himarwari satview above) verified exactly as EC suggested. It really bubbled away as it hit King Island.
     
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  22. cin

    cin Part of the Furniture
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    I cant tell you how often I say this to the missus
     
  23. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    fify :)
     
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  24. cin

    cin Part of the Furniture
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    yeah cant wait to go to sleep LOL

    I reckon we're about to get in trouble
     
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  25. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    sigh....
     
  26. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Access R has a wee upgrade.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  27. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    pm sent
     
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  28. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    won't take much of a shift in the real world for this to puke if you think about it.
    There is still the "look out the window " practitioners very much so ....
     
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  29. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Some reasonable mixing ratios over the period as well but am still not sure how the rates should be interperated.
     
  30. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    GFS loves progging cut-offs that progressively move east each run until they either disappear or ecl. It's the GFS way.
     
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  31. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    For sure.
    Got that a while back.
    Lerves the moisture too.
     
  32. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    Looks snowy on perisher cams.
     
  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    BoM going for snow falling to 1000m for NSW Alps today, which seems more reasonable IMO.
     
  34. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    ACCESS-R
    [​IMG]
    Going to be 1000m snow levels for Thursday.
    [​IMG]
    An upper-level disturbance.
     
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  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    EC and GFS see things differently. Virtually no available moisture on Thursday, perhaps a passing shower early on Friday AM. But any moisture is sub 700mb - With no Virt Velocity it'll be nothing more than a shower.

    IMO not even cold enough for snow down to that sort elevation.
     
  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Progged GFS Melbourne sounding for Thursday night. FL around 1700m & dry above ~1500m. Hello fog.
    [​IMG]
     
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  37. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    This is good. I plan on burning off Friday morning and having a disguise would be good. It's also cool to punch holes through the fog with a fire. It was this kind of set up I had a few months back where I burned off one day, and the fog rolled in and kept all the fine ash suspended until the next morning when the sun came up and began to heat the surface, then the fine ash 'snowed' down.
     
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  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    haha! Epic. Take your pick for your pyrocumulus dusting.
     
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  39. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    likely to be some heavy showers along the se nsw coastline and sydney @around
    mid-night.
     
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  40. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    [​IMG]
    Says it all for the 8th the ridge will be well and truly built back in
    by then.
     
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  41. cookieman

    cookieman Dedicated Member

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    Thats a big mother of a HIGH.
    At least cold nights will provide ideal snow-making conditions.
     
  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Possibility of some heavy snow in the elevated (>1200m) areas of Deua NP & Wadbilliga NP IMO. A nice cold pool wandering up the coast this arvo with some heavy showers in the vicinity.
    [​IMG]


    And POW's fun fact for today; by ~4pm Sydney will technically see FL around 1500m with snow down to ~1100m base don upper temps/wandering cold pool.
     
    #342 POW_hungry, Jun 6, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2017
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  43. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Precip just hit down here , and it's fugging cold SW 12 degs
     
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  44. sbm

    sbm Dedicated Member
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    That's....not really that remarkable? The Blue Mountains (Katoomba etc) are at 1000m, are part of "Greater Sydney" with plenty of commuters, and get snow a few times a year.
     
  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Read again; Fun fact, not suggesting a rarity/remarkable. That said, it's not often we see those sorts of upper/surface level temps in June.
    -5,-6c anomaly is pretty remarkable IMO.
     
    #345 POW_hungry, Jun 6, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2017
  46. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    maybe some localised hail also with those vcold /uppers
    in the pool as drifts over suburbs.
     
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  47. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    A good week's worth of snowmaking and inversions after this system clears out. Not too worried at this time of the year, but in 6 weeks time...
     
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  48. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    ACCESS-R shows a weak upper level disturbance moving on Thursday over Central & Western Victoria, stopping short of providing any meaningful precipitation for the Alps. Still an isolated chance of snow though. But very cold in behind it.
    [​IMG]
     
    #348 Jellybeans1000, Jun 6, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2017
  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    BOM says poss snow down to 1200m for Southern Tablelands tonight.
     
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  50. Kappy

    Kappy Well-Known Member

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    Yep, 5 - 6 weeks time is my arrival date for 2 weeks. Hope it delivers by then and around then.