Yes, if only there was another system on the horizon we could stop fantasising over this one. I know its going to be a real southerly change, but given its still 'no jacket' weather in Adelaide with clear skies its hard to take it seriously.
The first real rollercoaster ride for the season........................always fun...........depressing..................fun............depressing..........fun..........
What's the go for wednesday? Most seem to be calling a clearish day, but I fail to see how from these forecasts on here.
Please note the date the posts were made. The models have downgraded heaps since the thread was started. As have the BOM forecasts. Nothing like time and the weather to make model predictions 7 days out (and those commenting on them) look silly.
EC always had the Tasman / ECL scenario for this one. (Tuesday) GFS originally cut-off drifting across the bight. A lesson in it perhaps......
Can we put in a request to BOM to move that ECL about 250km SSW from where it is placed in the above picture?
Keep in mind @jwx has been posting EC models of a sooper cold (LWT) node for the past week or so. This still standing true to those.
There seems to be quite a lot of fluctuating vertical velocity at 700hPa in the GFS. Hopefully this will lead to a better use of available moisture.
EC even moreso! The band hitting Tassie NW (see Himarwari satview above) verified exactly as EC suggested. It really bubbled away as it hit King Island.
won't take much of a shift in the real world for this to puke if you think about it. There is still the "look out the window " practitioners very much so ....
Some reasonable mixing ratios over the period as well but am still not sure how the rates should be interperated.
GFS loves progging cut-offs that progressively move east each run until they either disappear or ecl. It's the GFS way.
EC and GFS see things differently. Virtually no available moisture on Thursday, perhaps a passing shower early on Friday AM. But any moisture is sub 700mb - With no Virt Velocity it'll be nothing more than a shower. IMO not even cold enough for snow down to that sort elevation.
This is good. I plan on burning off Friday morning and having a disguise would be good. It's also cool to punch holes through the fog with a fire. It was this kind of set up I had a few months back where I burned off one day, and the fog rolled in and kept all the fine ash suspended until the next morning when the sun came up and began to heat the surface, then the fine ash 'snowed' down.
Possibility of some heavy snow in the elevated (>1200m) areas of Deua NP & Wadbilliga NP IMO. A nice cold pool wandering up the coast this arvo with some heavy showers in the vicinity. And POW's fun fact for today; by ~4pm Sydney will technically see FL around 1500m with snow down to ~1100m base don upper temps/wandering cold pool.
That's....not really that remarkable? The Blue Mountains (Katoomba etc) are at 1000m, are part of "Greater Sydney" with plenty of commuters, and get snow a few times a year.
Read again; Fun fact, not suggesting a rarity/remarkable. That said, it's not often we see those sorts of upper/surface level temps in June. -5,-6c anomaly is pretty remarkable IMO.
A good week's worth of snowmaking and inversions after this system clears out. Not too worried at this time of the year, but in 6 weeks time...
ACCESS-R shows a weak upper level disturbance moving on Thursday over Central & Western Victoria, stopping short of providing any meaningful precipitation for the Alps. Still an isolated chance of snow though. But very cold in behind it.
