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Predictions 5-9th September - Spring Sender

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Aug 27, 2019.

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  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ensembles has had it there, a while back.

    It’s been signalled in GFS for a while now. EC now sharing interest.
    Also coincides with a sizeable long wave.
    IMO this system could very well be followed by subsequent frontal systems as we dive right into another (and possibly the final) neg SAM event.

    EC:


    GFS Long wave (4th):
     
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  2. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    The longwave is good.
    I’m not convinced the AAO will be good enough.
    I’d say something like a 10-25cm event at this point in a general sense.

    I’m more interested in after the 10th.
     
  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    10th looks very good too. Teeters in the fate (success) of this one IMO.
     
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  4. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  5. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Honestly I wish that the longwave held back a week. It’d be perfect.
    This period relies on the power of the longwave primarily.

    MJO is in town however, positive sign:
     
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  6. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well well this is certainly interesting imo. Seriously low level hijinx there.
     
  7. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yikes!
     
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  8. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Minus 37 @ 500hPa over Tassie :eek:
     
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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  10. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    As you predicted last night that ridge is already getting shunted.
     
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  11. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

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    Very interesting charts - can I please ask what the metric is here. (Pressure variation from ave?)

    (Bit surprised these otherwise very professional charts aren't fully labelled - my manager would ask for an amendment - just saying). ( ;-) Guess experts know all the acronyms!

    Hope we do get a late season dump from this!!
     
  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    VP200 is velocity potential at 200mb (upper level troposphere) the units displayed are anomolies (filtered for your viewing pleasure). Negative indicates divergence, positive indicate convergence. At 200mb you wanna see regions of ‘divergence’ indicating convergence at the surface, hence the breeding ground of tropical storm activity.

    This image may be taken from the weekly NCEP bulletin containing other MJO indicators, it’s labelled accurately when viewed in context of the bulletin. But one does need to know how to decipher the labels.
     
    #12 POW_hungry, Aug 28, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 28, 2019
  13. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

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    Thanks PW much appreciated - my uni MetApp Maths was ~ 30 years ago and one doesn't learn everything at undergrad level.

    Your explanation makes perfect sense - need convergence at lower tropo for rain/snow.

    Do you think this promising period ~ 10 September is likely to be the last major snow event while lifts are open? Or is end of September just over horizon with the main models (as I suspect)?
     
  14. download (1).png ecmwf_aao_2019082712.png gefs_aao_2019082712 (1).png

    Sam forecast suggests more fronts. These - numbers as a rule of thumb in any other period you dont even need too go over models too know what too expect.
     
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  15. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah but the thing is that it is mainly centres around the 1st of Sept. So the influence is waning as this period comes around. Sometimes the waning period can actually be good, as the synoptic trend peaks and declines. And it's not as great as when the major SSW comes to town in the troposphere.
     
  16. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Hard Yards

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    Given the bottom is forecast around the 1st, could we see the fronts over the weekend and early next week get stronger as a result?
     
  17. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    So what we are seeing now, if I'm reading this right is the 5-8 Sept period as a response to the dip seen above in the AAO with further fronts probable a bit later in September in response to the SSW that may (or may not) coincide with the LWT over SE Oz? Or is 5-8 Sept also a response to the SSW?
     
  18. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'd say the impacts here of this small -AAO event, is perhaps a bit more support for this period. The support is going to be stronger at surface level, compared to the 500mb upper level.
     
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  19. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    So. What will the weather be like that weekend? English please.
     
  20. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    I dunno!
     
  21. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Okay so here's the deal:
    1. There is forecast to be a LWT node on the 5th of Sept.
    2. Hence it's golden period is the 5th to the 8th of Sept.
    3. There is forecast to be a -AAO peak in the lower troposphere on the 1st of Sept
    4. Hence it's golden period is from 1-5th of Sept.
    5. This isn't really due to the SSW's effects, because the tropo-strat connection is weak.
    6. The SSW's golden period is from the 10th of Sept - 10th of Oct (details as soon as they come available).
     
  22. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    What good are ya?
     
  23. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    Not much in comparison to this lot in here when it comes to predicting weather!
     
  24. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    So the potential outcome then (noting no guarantees of course - its Oz in Sept) is multiple snow producing fronts across a good portion of September and a mighty fine looking cover for Spring skiing and touring! Trying to not get excited.
     
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  25. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

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    Nothing to dislike!! Great! ⛷❄️
     
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  26. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    7. Some snow during this period (I’ll maintain my 10-25cm).
    8. Next thing on LWT is 14th to 17th of Sept. I like this idea in particular.
    9. 25th-29th of Sept would be next down the line. This would be our last statistically real chance.
    10. Expect more rain to get into the mix; It’s spring that’s the reality. This would be amplified if the MJO/tropics becomes more in play later on in the month.
    11. For those who like a Sunny September, I’d wait until October (or going skiing in the next fortnight)
    12. If this comes off to it’s full potential (massive if), we would be “skiing” Bull Run in December.
    Heaps and heaps of snow on the MR and the Vic peaks. Another year with a late CP Road opening.
    13. Follow this space. Will change.
     
  27. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Let’s give it a few days.
     
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  28. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Stay on topic folks . We can discuss long term outlooks in the BBQ thread.
     
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  29. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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  30. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Hard Yards

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  31. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Interesting.
    Cheeky day trip next Friday if that drops
     
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  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 00z showing a little more interest for the 5th now.
    Trending positively.
     
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  33. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Jane predicting snow all day on 5th. BC fest at Hotham is 6,7,8.
     
  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 00z muddying the waters just a touch.
    Progression doesn't sit well with me IMO.
    Positively EC Ensembles do support a cold front and SW flow for the 5th.

    Deterministic:
     
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  35. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Hard Yards

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    Could we see a response and things get stronger next week?
     
  36. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS looks quite wet.

    EC looks like a few small top-ups, around the 1st, 5th and 7th of Sept.
    Largely Southern Resorts favouring type systems.
     
  37. Izzy

    Izzy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like the BOM has backed off on the wind speed numbers for next week at Thredbo. Considering the stories of Thredbo chairs on wind hold since the Gunbarrel chair went down, this has been a relief. What are the weather brains trust thoughts on wind speed levels next week?

    Thanks.
     
  38. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    EC looks interesting this morning. Especially for Mt Buller.
     
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  39. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Indeed. Looking at 10-30cm with a bit of prefrontal rain.
     
  40. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Precipitation comparison
     
  41. 18z 7-8th is suspect thinks GFS ens. Just sayin.
     

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  42. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Interesting progression on EC . Not convinced though imo.
     
  43. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  44. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    BB and MSG might get a good top up :) .
     
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  45. Gregah

    Gregah Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    EC (via Jane) looking a bit better this morning (Hotham)
     
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  46. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Upgrade on EC.
     
  47. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Interschools nats at Buller
    Of course the weather will be shite
     
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  48. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    At least there is snow.....
     
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  49. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC - indicating Rain Friday night turning to snow Sat. morning . NSW South coast getting activity early Sat.-
     
  50. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wickedness on the South Coast. Stacked up to 500 hPa.