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Predictions 5-9th September - Spring Sender

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Aug 27, 2019.

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  1. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC has latched onto the ECL concept last few runs . Where she ends up tracking ( if it eventuates) is still a ? Vorticity and available moisture/ mixing ratios combined with a deepening Low like this plot indicates could cause some havoc imo.
     
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  2. Ijay

    Ijay Hard Yards Ski Pass: Silver

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    A most appealing chart, rain for the Bega area. Last decent fall here at Wandella was in mid March, 77mm. Since then about 60mm in total, nearly all of that gone in westerly winds.
    Staying tuned.
     
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  3. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-baw-baw
    The Modelling looks like whopping 20 cm plus next Sat. at BB. I am already packing for a day trip on Sunday , next weekend to Mt. St. G. !!!
     
  4. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    There’s definitely something there on EC 00z for this period:
     
  5. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear One of Us

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    Bonus snow at Baw Baw.
     
  6. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  7. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Please explain ?
     
  8. teleroo

    teleroo One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Bit of a heat low in the tropics battling it out with the polar stuff? Heat engine in the Pilbara starting to crank over and blowing a bit of smoke perhaps.
     
  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Surface troughs through the interior will be largely dry so looks messier than it appears.

    Complex cut off cold pool and frontal system (through SE Aus Friday) will be largely supported by upper levels - whilst not wintery cold it will yield to snow down to ~1400m Friday Night/Saturday IMO.
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO the trailing system on the 8th will be upgraded towards the end of the week, if not sooner.
     
  11. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Could be up to 40cm too, it’s certainly an interesting low. Not a full-on dump, but a bit more than your typical top-up.
    20-40cm at this stage. IMO.
     
  12. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    nearly at the bottom on the AAO.

    Based on the past three dumps - you'd think there been more action happening with this week's events. Hopefully we get a September surprise for the last weekend of Winter Sports Club.

    [​IMG]
     
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  13. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Very soon indeed.


    Looking like a much colder 10-20cm for the 8th/9th.
    Behind the still 20-40cm for the 6th/7th.
    It looks like a really solid system here.
     
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The whole date range looks like a proper dump to me.
     
  15. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    As noted, EC has upgraded, including a second front on 8th/9th.
    Here's Hotham & Thredbo (via Jane)

     
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  16. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Could potentially grow, but it is rather ridgey.
    I think 10-20cm within a 30-60cm system at the moment.
     
  17. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Yeah if the cut-off low reconnects with the main cold pool further to the west it would be on on on. Potential for a massive upgrade here.

    10 PM Friday ECMWF
    [​IMG]

    10 PM Sunday ECMWF

    [​IMG]
     
  18. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    I doubt it. They are two seperate fronts/systems in their own right, despite them all being part of the same longwave.
     
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS has this low quite stacked with moisture and instability.
    [​IMG]
     
  20. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    4 dayer looks juicy....ill be up on friday, ok in resort but looks like crap touring weather for the BC festival at hotham
     
  21. Paperboy

    Paperboy One of Us

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    Why does it always snow on my wife's birthday, its the one weekend I can't go to the snow.:cry: Nice looking totals on windy. Any chance of a follow up on Monday or Tuesday when I can go to the snow?
     
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  22. Boodwah

    Boodwah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    My birthday too, agreed its as reliable an annual forecast as any.
    50 cents for 50 years.
    Thank you
     
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  23. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The 12Z run was impressive for Sept.
     
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  24. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still a moist, but complex low on EC 00z.

    Low has moved a bit closer to the mainland this run, which gives us more moisture to play with.
     
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  25. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    haha im 16 august and thats also pretty the other reliable date!!
     
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  26. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    and the BOM moisture for alps has gone right up for fri-sat, from 0-3mm each day to 5-15mm and 8-10mm
     
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  27. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    There is however some Warm Advection in the mix .
     
  28. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, getting a handle on things typically at this range.

    Still in for 20-40cm IMO for the Friday and Saturday.

    The Sunday/Monday event has been largely ridged by most of the models, probably collecting 5-10cm there.
     
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  29. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Whats the snow level looking like? 1600m?
     
  30. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm completely unconvinced.
    Looks to me an early SA/western Vic peak with the bulk of the moisture there and north of the range with not a lot of wrap around.
    Happy to be proven wrong.
     
  31. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, it’s not going to be a really cold event. Emphasis is on the moisture, rather than the temperature.
    However the SLs look about 1200-1400m, down to 1000m at times which is good for most of the resorts.
     
  32. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Big focus on the last few runs on precipitation from the S/SE per wrap-around. Gippsland would be hammered if GFS 00z got it’s way. Buller/Baw Baw, and later on Sat, Thredbo to get the goods.
     
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  33. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some good Adiabatic cooling in this one and quite burly Vorticity mixing things up with some 5 kg mixing ratios . Its pretty good imo.
     
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  34. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  35. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dew points are a touch warm 10 am to 4 pm Sat at this point in time but there is not much in it.
     
  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Locked it in eddy.

    30-40cm for major resorts Friday through Monday with a little chance of rain to kick things off on a Friday.
    Peak depth for Spencer’s Creek 2019 IMO.
     
  37. Adricat

    Adricat Addicted

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    Thredbo day trip Monday or Tuesday?
     
  38. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Not a fizzer IMO

    Looks good to me with all models coming into alignment of sorts
     
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  39. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    Hint Of a Conveyor belt in association with Cut off low scenario would be ideal. See what happens.
     
  40. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    The se > slide is looking good.
    Was concerned earlier runs it would peak in SA and drift e/ne before transitioning into ecl/tasman low.
     
  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some 50 knot flags floating around Vic NE at 850mb, Saturday AM. She’s gonna rattle some cages.
     
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  42. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Monday for snow.
    Tuesday for sun.
    Probably not a very long one.
     
  43. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC Rapid 18Z is showing Dew Points crossing over into the desirable side between 2- 3 pm Friday . Snowline hourly plots showing snow as early as 1 pm.
     
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  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 00z has echoed EC 12Z this arvo. Very firm agreement. Sunday will probably see a downgrade in the next couple of runs IMO, but by Friday’s 00z I think we could be in for a surprise RE: Sunday.

    A very good spread of wind directions given the proximity and trajectory of low over the SE.
    A ‘fill in all the cracks’, icing on the cake type of system IMO.

    I am bloody into it!
    GFS00z:
     
  45. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Vertical Totals - Cross Totals look to be good chums on the Majors. Total Totals, Shear instability , lift and moisture all playing ball at the moment. Stacking up nicely.
     
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  46. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Yewh EMWF

    I like the follow up on Monday Too, with that clearing high Tuesday looking very good indeed.

    Definitely a much bigger base than last year on all aspects so this should be peak season.

    [​IMG]
     
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  47. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    I wouldn't be so sure about that, with the SSW around. It may just keep going.
     
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  48. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Date range extended.
     
  49. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sunday/Monday looks a Buller/Bawbs special at this stage on latest GFS.
     
  50. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Bring it on !!