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Predictions 5-9th September - Spring Sender

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Aug 27, 2019.

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  1. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    I am going to MSG this Sunday and Falls/ BHP on Tuesday. It should be fresh under the planks :) .
     
  2. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Not sure how to embed this video (can someone do it) but thought it appropriate given its Spring and in light of recent tragedies on the Bogong, it might lighten the mood.
     
  3. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  4. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    Upgrade for Friday
    Downgrade for Sat/Sun
    Upgrade for Monday.
    Per EC 00z.


     
  5. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    I’ll go bold and suggest 40-65cm for the MR resorts from Fri to Tues. Both EC and GFS are into it.

    This chart does contain the Vic prefrontal, so bare that in mind.

    West Gippsland (Baw Baw) gets plenty of precip (15-25mm of it is rain on Friday). GFS does even better for Gippsland.

    Buller to also gain from the SE/S/SW tone after Friday. 30-40cm, minus 5-10mm of prefrontal.
    Falls/Hotham I’d say around the same, 25-40cm, 5mm or so of prefrontal.
    Little prefrontal (2-3mm) for the NSW resorts. It has a big Friday night. on EC.
     
    #105 Jellybeans, Sep 3, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 3, 2019
  6. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear One of Us

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    So it is a BB basher on Friday .....Not happy Jan
     
  7. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    Plenty of snow after that though.
     
  8. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC looks violent on weatherzone ...
    Like proper UFC brawler
     
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  9. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC looks coldest at that same time.
    850hpa temps look sweet
     
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  10. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    but is there not something nasty lurky about off the south coast ready to rain on the parade.
     
  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    That would make it a ‘proper dump’.
    There’s a big change in tone here.
     
  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It’s not a lingering low, it’s progression is somewhat quick.
    Upper level temps are very supportive here. There’s some advection but I am not convinced it will impact too much IMO.

    GFS: showing Saturday AM, snow to 1500m.
     
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  13. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes it is a proper dump. Hmmmm, do we have a problem?
     
  14. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perisher yr.no looks good. Total of ~55cm, for an estimate of EC’s projections.
     
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  15. teleroo

    teleroo One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Oi! Settle down you two! Seriously though, I'm much appreciative of the forecasting skill you both bring to our snow adventures, it really helps with the planning.
     
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  16. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I was referring to Sun AM - but latest GFS has a much better scenario than what was there earlier. hopefully it stays that way.
     
  17. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  18. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    *Except that Buller Westerly Friday
     
  19. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Monday is Buller day.
     
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  20. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not much chance of a Westerly for Buller given the trajectory IMO.
    It’s been very lucky this season.
     
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  22. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    If it comes off like GFS says, Buller will get heaps.
     
  23. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    ****in ay.

    But GFS....
     
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  24. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC is much less exciting for Monday, but still some snow, and room to expand.
     
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  25. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    yeah looks much more ridgey.

    watching with interest.
     
  26. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    How’s the tropical troughing and not a skerrick of moisture to be seen.
    NW and Central Tropical regions will struggle this forthcoming monsoon season.

    If it wasn’t for a positive IOD, looking at the 4-dayer at this time of year, on face value, I’d normally say it’s all rain for this system...
     
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  28. Paperboy

    Paperboy One of Us

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    Got to love a cut-off low, otherwise it would be all rain.
     
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  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cut off lows are susceptible to advection and inherently rain.
    They are not immune.
     
  30. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Far from expert but from observations over time they're always far more marginal in temps and result in higher snow level. As was pointed out earlier in the thread, this wont be pow, but it'll be shit tonne of good Aussie fresh snow with a colder top up on Monday.
     
  31. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    This one seems to get a extra burst of 500hpa love
     
  32. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS_R looks violent !
     
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  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, just typically speaking.
    This one is quick and doesn’t stall, a bit of unique scenario.
     
  34. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A quantity over quality scenario. .the corn harvest shall be long this year.
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  36. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    As long as it's done by early November so that I can hike the main range without having to encounter smelly tele bellies.

    STAY ON TOPIC!
     
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  37. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like EC 00z is upgrading a little bit this run so far. Particularly for Sat/Sun with SW winds.
     
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  38. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sunday/Monday morning is solid as on EC 00z.
     
  39. TheFake

    TheFake One of Us

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    Bom suggesting possible thundersnow for Buller on Friday.
    Those forecast temps (min 1 max 4) don't make me super confident though...
     
  40. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Those temps are weird IMO
     
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  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I’d say EC is a d grade for Sunday/Monday on precip, but it was to be expected IMO. Should see it come back on Friday (Sunday that is).

    Cold air is there for sure.
     
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  42. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    They typically go a little higher than projected just in case.
    You’ll probably see 2-3 degrees before the 4-7am cooldown on Friday.
     
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  43. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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  44. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Temps and Lapse rates are offset by Latent Heat Release ( in this case gas to water Phase Change or evaporation if you like ) A fair bit of Latent Heat flux at the surface on 6th on EC plots .
     
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  45. tomtankman

    tomtankman Addicted

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    Total precipitation from Friday to Tuesday could reach 70mm (the red) over the main range - only about 5mm is rain before it turns to snow on Friday. The 2nd front on Sunday still has question marks. The trailing fronts behind a cold pool often get ridged out to the south. Still a good chance Perisher and Thredbo will receive around 50cm up high and for Thredbo Village around 20-30cm.
     

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  46. Maroubra Seal

    Maroubra Seal Hard Yards

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    Any progress on Sunday/Monday's progression this morning? I've just locked in long weekend a Hotham mission.
     
  47. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    Friday.

    NSW - Little rain, 10-25cm
    VIC 5-10mm initally, 10-20cm.

    Saturday.


    VIC - 5-10cm
    NSW - 15-20cm

    Sunday

    VIC - 10-20cm
    NSW - 10-20cm

    Monday

    NSW 3-7cm
    VIC 3-7cm
     
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  48. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  49. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Could not see an o s thread?

    No pre frontal ye. Straight to snow at PV. Started a few mins ago! And quite decent flakes at the moment.....


     

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  50. Mctavish

    Mctavish One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Light grapple with the odd clear drop at Falls. Looking like a clear snow sky approaching.
     
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