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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Aug 27, 2019.
I am going to MSG this Sunday and Falls/ BHP on Tuesday. It should be fresh under the planks .
Not sure how to embed this video (can someone do it) but thought it appropriate given its Spring and in light of recent tragedies on the Bogong, it might lighten the mood.
GFS looks ugly Saturday night early Sunday. Back end could pour in the moisture from the Tasman.
Friday/Saturday looks to be the go. One more daytime snow event would be "cool"
Upgrade for Friday
Downgrade for Sat/Sun
Upgrade for Monday.
Per EC 00z.
I’ll go bold and suggest 40-65cm for the MR resorts from Fri to Tues. Both EC and GFS are into it.
This chart does contain the Vic prefrontal, so bare that in mind.
West Gippsland (Baw Baw) gets plenty of precip (15-25mm of it is rain on Friday). GFS does even better for Gippsland.
Buller to also gain from the SE/S/SW tone after Friday. 30-40cm, minus 5-10mm of prefrontal.
Falls/Hotham I’d say around the same, 25-40cm, 5mm or so of prefrontal.
Little prefrontal (2-3mm) for the NSW resorts. It has a big Friday night. on EC.
So it is a BB basher on Friday .....Not happy Jan
Plenty of snow after that though.
EC looks violent on weatherzone ...
Like proper UFC brawler
EC looks coldest at that same time.
850hpa temps look sweet
but is there not something nasty lurky about off the south coast ready to rain on the parade.
That would make it a ‘proper dump’.
There’s a big change in tone here.
It’s not a lingering low, it’s progression is somewhat quick.
Upper level temps are very supportive here. There’s some advection but I am not convinced it will impact too much IMO.
GFS: showing Saturday AM, snow to 1500m.
Yes it is a proper dump. Hmmmm, do we have a problem?
Perisher yr.no looks good. Total of ~55cm, for an estimate of EC’s projections.
Oi! Settle down you two! Seriously though, I'm much appreciative of the forecasting skill you both bring to our snow adventures, it really helps with the planning.
I was referring to Sun AM - but latest GFS has a much better scenario than what was there earlier. hopefully it stays that way.
*Except that Buller Westerly Friday
Monday is Buller day.
Not much chance of a Westerly for Buller given the trajectory IMO.
It’s been very lucky this season.
If it comes off like GFS says, Buller will get heaps.
EC is much less exciting for Monday, but still some snow, and room to expand.
yeah looks much more ridgey.
watching with interest.
How’s the tropical troughing and not a skerrick of moisture to be seen.
NW and Central Tropical regions will struggle this forthcoming monsoon season.
If it wasn’t for a positive IOD, looking at the 4-dayer at this time of year, on face value, I’d normally say it’s all rain for this system...
Got to love a cut-off low, otherwise it would be all rain.
Cut off lows are susceptible to advection and inherently rain.
They are not immune.
Far from expert but from observations over time they're always far more marginal in temps and result in higher snow level. As was pointed out earlier in the thread, this wont be pow, but it'll be shit tonne of good Aussie fresh snow with a colder top up on Monday.
This one seems to get a extra burst of 500hpa love
AXS_R looks violent !
Yeah, just typically speaking.
This one is quick and doesn’t stall, a bit of unique scenario.
A quantity over quality scenario. .the corn harvest shall be long this year.
As long as it's done by early November so that I can hike the main range without having to encounter smelly tele bellies.
STAY ON TOPIC!
Looks like EC 00z is upgrading a little bit this run so far. Particularly for Sat/Sun with SW winds.
Sunday/Monday morning is solid as on EC 00z.
Bom suggesting possible thundersnow for Buller on Friday.
Those forecast temps (min 1 max 4) don't make me super confident though...
Those temps are weird IMO
I’d say EC is a d grade for Sunday/Monday on precip, but it was to be expected IMO. Should see it come back on Friday (Sunday that is).
Cold air is there for sure.
They typically go a little higher than projected just in case.
You’ll probably see 2-3 degrees before the 4-7am cooldown on Friday.
You've been all over this one @Jellybeans !
Temps and Lapse rates are offset by Latent Heat Release ( in this case gas to water Phase Change or evaporation if you like ) A fair bit of Latent Heat flux at the surface on 6th on EC plots .
Total precipitation from Friday to Tuesday could reach 70mm (the red) over the main range - only about 5mm is rain before it turns to snow on Friday. The 2nd front on Sunday still has question marks. The trailing fronts behind a cold pool often get ridged out to the south. Still a good chance Perisher and Thredbo will receive around 50cm up high and for Thredbo Village around 20-30cm.
Any progress on Sunday/Monday's progression this morning? I've just locked in long weekend a Hotham mission.
NSW - Little rain, 10-25cm
VIC 5-10mm initally, 10-20cm.
VIC - 5-10cm
NSW - 15-20cm
VIC - 10-20cm
NSW - 10-20cm
Kick off for NSW continues to be around Friday noon onwards - according to GFS?
Could not see an o s thread?
No pre frontal ye. Straight to snow at PV. Started a few mins ago! And quite decent flakes at the moment.....
Light grapple with the odd clear drop at Falls. Looking like a clear snow sky approaching.