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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Aug 27, 2019.
Pretty amazing we have snow at these temperatures. Must be all that bible reading i've been doing.
It was snowing with temps >2C because the surface humidity is well below 100%. As a result snowflakes sublimate and become smaller, rather than melting to rain. If humidity was 100%, which it is normally during precip, the flakes can't evaporate since the air is already saturated.
Stay on topic
Snow should fall right into Monday PM, albeit light/intermittently after Sunday night IMO.
tmw late morning looks a little narly to start with. BOM numbers are solid - hopefully no less than a 50/50 on the precip split though - will be interesting to watch this one play out.
Your Perisher based right?
Shouldn’t be more than few mms before the snow starts.
Sunday/Monday looks good indeed, with a nice little upgrade to the backend.
About 10-25cm, best totals for Baw Baw/Buller. Thredbo might do good later on Monday if the wind gets more southerly, as opposed to SWly.
7- 10 am Monday looks to be a nice back end indeed.
Snow in weird places kind of moment with that southerly.
Do we call it "Becky" yet?
For Perisher Village.
Nearly 72 hours of consistent snowfall, bar the short lull on Sunday.
That’s great for September.
Watch out Gippsland and Monaro districts in the tail end IMO.
GFS - ERV doing its thing to the DGZ moisture feed 4am Sat.
He enjoys late season NZ skiing apparently.Sorry, but that is my level...
Stay on topic.
Looking at radar Baw Baw dodged a bullet...
Could be ski tube Sat morning. Esp. If you're driving a 12 year old AWD Volvo with bald tyres*
* New tyres being fitted next week
Good luck if ya drive, last year I had to drive at night in a blizzard with a 20 year old Subaru Forester with bald summer tyres, just went very slow. Got all season snow tyres this year, made a huge difference.
Road to Hotham on Saturday in a 2005 Liberty... wish me luck getting the chains on the low profile tyres. Hope they still have those helpers for the chains in VIC?
Bottom of Hotham at 1450m according to Jane’s automated - frothing!
I had mud snow radials on my old Sports wagon and it was epic, could absolutely gun it in blizzards and not lose any traction running high range 4WD!
Nice looking 4 day BOM chart. I like the 2nd front on Sunday night with trough trailing behind.
Yeh that Sunday night into Monday morning looks to have received a little juice up to me. I would think precip wise it will favour particular resorts though with fairly big differences in reported snow on the cards. Those with good exposure to South/South Westers ie Buller, Baw Baw and Thredbo likely to get the best of it.
I've been living in Jindabyne for about 15 months and not had a decent fall on the gorund here yet, a few dustings last year and plenty of flurries this year. Most cold systems have come in on strong westerlies putting Jindy in rain shadow. Monday looks like the best chance for a while though to me, a nice cold solid southerly feed onto the Monaro.
24 hours 9pm - 9pm tomorow.
Buller special tonight Hopefully BB gets a good top up as well we need it ...
18Z EC Rapid indicating there is a fair bit left in the tank with this period.
4pm and 5pm Sunday Simulated Radar plots looking nice imo.
CAPE/ CIN , Shear instability, Simulated Radar plots and overall parameters look ok for some reasonable lingering falls at Baw Baw early Monday. Not a big amount of available moisture but enough instability for a few smile imo.
Whats the likely of lift hold at Thredbo tomorrow? Just noticed that the forecast wind has been upgraded.
The risk is there, but largely in the Arvo IMO.
SW'ly should be buffeted by Vic Alps (gusty), the W'ly may forge some down-slope increase.
I think anything before mid-arvo should be ok for Thredbo IMO.
EC has a reasonable rain band coming through this arvo/ evening. Perhaps a secondary period for Baw Baw and Buller
Obs, but you can see it building over Mt Gambier right now.
Steady snow at Buller atm.