1. SPECIAL NOTE TO NEW REGISTRATIONS

    If you recently registered and have not received a confirmation email - please check your 'Spam or Junk' folders. Especially if your email is Hotmail. More help with confirmation issues

    NOTE: This notice may be closed.

    Dismiss Notice

6 - 8 May

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Bugski, Apr 20, 2006.

  1. Bugski

    Bugski A Local

    Joined:
    Jul 15, 2003
    Messages:
    18,970
    Likes Received:
    7
    Location:
    Hot Ham
    Looks interesting again. May peak too early but we'll see.

    Edit: changed 5/6 to 6 - 8. [​IMG]
     
    #1 Bugski, Apr 20, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  2. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    70,889
    Likes Received:
    25,202
    Location:
    Cranhole, Melbourne, VIC
    cocky are ya after the last front? [​IMG]

    nah keep up the good work :thumbs: it looks like it could have potential.
     
    #2 Vermillion, Apr 20, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  3. Bugski

    Bugski A Local

    Joined:
    Jul 15, 2003
    Messages:
    18,970
    Likes Received:
    7
    Location:
    Hot Ham
    Just trying to warm up with systems speeds etc for the season. :p
     
  4. The Frog

    The Frog Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    48,171
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    NSW
    exactly, practice makes perfect...well close enough anyway.
     
  5. cervelo

    cervelo First Runs

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2001
    Messages:
    3,048
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    sydney
    just in time for my bday [​IMG]
     
    #5 cervelo, Apr 20, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  6. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 22, 2000
    Messages:
    3,212
    Likes Received:
    115
    Location:
    tasmania
    Your on fire so far this season Mahtoh! This winter looks like it could be big. Hopefully it doesn,t run out of puff in July & August when it really counts
     
  7. board freek

    board freek One of Us

    Joined:
    May 28, 2005
    Messages:
    1,173
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Eastern Suburbs Melbourne
    really my birthday i will be in Hotham for 21st June
     
  8. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 22, 2003
    Messages:
    8,325
    Likes Received:
    3,573
    Location:
    Monaro
    Looks like something on the way
     
  9. Shiraz

    Shiraz Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Feb 24, 2003
    Messages:
    541
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Adelaide, SA
    well the +288 GFS on weatherzone looks the goods at this stage for May 5...
     
  10. churchy

    churchy One of Us

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2004
    Messages:
    7,433
    Likes Received:
    6
    ...and we all know how reliable that can be :out:


    j/k.. could be ok but it's still super early at this stage.
     
  11. Shiraz

    Shiraz Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Feb 24, 2003
    Messages:
    541
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Adelaide, SA
    very true, but its encouraging to see that today's +288 is in agreement with Mahtoh's call 4 days ago.

    will be interesting to see how the models develop over the next few days [​IMG]
     
    #11 Shiraz, Apr 24, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 26, 2013
  12. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    70,889
    Likes Received:
    25,202
    Location:
    Cranhole, Melbourne, VIC
    GFS +288 = [​IMG]

    GASP +288 = Death by [​IMG]

    not saying i disagree with bugski's call though.
     
    #12 Vermillion, Apr 24, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  13. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,099
    Likes Received:
    287
    Location:
    Melbourne
    :D
     
    #13 Stratus, Apr 24, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  14. Adsa

    Adsa First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2005
    Messages:
    44
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Adelaide
    See Mahtohsnowatch.com.au for more details...
     
  15. Bugski

    Bugski A Local

    Joined:
    Jul 15, 2003
    Messages:
    18,970
    Likes Received:
    7
    Location:
    Hot Ham
    Matt Damon
     
  16. Adsa

    Adsa First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2005
    Messages:
    44
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Adelaide
  17. snowcrazed

    snowcrazed One of Us

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2004
    Messages:
    2,978
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Aspendale, Vic, Australia
    Well the Frog seems to think a lot less of this event in the 14 day forecast than he did in the long range one! [​IMG]
     
    #17 snowcrazed, Apr 25, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  18. TropicalBoy

    TropicalBoy Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Aug 22, 2005
    Messages:
    40
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne
    #18 TropicalBoy, Apr 25, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  19. Bugski

    Bugski A Local

    Joined:
    Jul 15, 2003
    Messages:
    18,970
    Likes Received:
    7
    Location:
    Hot Ham
    Snow at sea level.
     
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,571
    Likes Received:
    20,783
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    522 thickness. As Matoh has said, freeze level is at sea level. We saw it tucked up over NZ a couple of times last season.
     
  21. BrentC

    BrentC Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2005
    Messages:
    428
    Likes Received:
    1
    Location:
    Victoria
    And once over Victoria [​IMG]
     
    #21 BrentC, Apr 25, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,571
    Likes Received:
    20,783
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Last season?!...doubt it!
     
    #22 POW_hungry, Apr 25, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  23. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2002
    Messages:
    24,950
    Likes Received:
    8,589
    I remember seeing snow to sea level in Gippsland last year
     
    #23 MisterMxyzptlk, Apr 25, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  24. Taipan

    Taipan Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2001
    Messages:
    25,475
    Likes Received:
    2,633
    Location:
    Currently NSW North Coast
    Yes it was a wednesday 10th August 2005. I was in Thredbo and skied some of the best powder in ive ever seen in Australia.

    There were pictures of snow in footprints at a beach in Victoria. I think it was bells.

    Ah justed Googled up a search and here we are.

    Snow to sea level
     
    #24 Taipan, Apr 26, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  25. Richard T

    Richard T First Runs

    Joined:
    May 12, 2004
    Messages:
    848
    Likes Received:
    0
    I remember seeing snow to sea level in Gippsland last year </strong></font><hr /></blockquote><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">I remember sleeping in an unheated car in Jindabyne with a summer sleeping bag that night. [​IMG]
     
    #25 Richard T, Apr 26, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  26. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    63,600
    Likes Received:
    10,832
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    There is no doubt, it DID snow down to sea level in Victoria last year. It was extremely unusual to say the least.
     
  27. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2003
    Messages:
    16,503
    Likes Received:
    7,940
    Location:
    melbourne
    falls festival site around 400m

    [​IMG]
     
    #27 mr, Apr 26, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  28. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2003
    Messages:
    16,503
    Likes Received:
    7,940
    Location:
    melbourne
    woolamai

    [​IMG]
     
    #28 mr, Apr 26, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  29. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2003
    Messages:
    16,503
    Likes Received:
    7,940
    Location:
    melbourne
    I beleive around sandy point somewhere

    [​IMG]

    All photos taken from web so if you took them, thanks
     
    #29 mr, Apr 26, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  30. needsnow

    needsnow First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2005
    Messages:
    107
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    vic
    hi guys that last photo is from my home town inverloch in near wonthaggi.
    it was the weirdest day ever it hailed then it just went quite so i walked out the office and said to my mait it looks like snow but it cant be???????????????

    then all of a sudden it really started to snow quite heavaly it was awsum i will see if i cant find some more pix
     
  31. boogabrain

    boogabrain First Runs

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2005
    Messages:
    14
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne, Victoria
    yeah, i just heard the weather forecast (though not to accurate a week in advance)and it is predicted to be an absolute DUMP!! maybe even upto 50 cm!!! which is GREAT!!! and it is predicted to last until the ski season starts. should be some absolute pukage around the mountains!!! =) but they are just predictions...

    just because i'm a newbie, doesn't mean i aren't smart...

    cheers my dears...!!
     
  32. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 22, 2000
    Messages:
    3,212
    Likes Received:
    115
    Location:
    tasmania
    Settle Pettles!! Ahhhh The eagerness of Newbies! [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
    #32 BenLomond Iceman, Apr 26, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  33. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    21,457
    Likes Received:
    13,628
    Location:
    Dubbo NSW
    Yes but your post has done a pretty good job of showing your level of weather knowledge.
     
    #33 Snow Blowey, Apr 26, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  34. snow_obsessed

    snow_obsessed First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 10, 2005
    Messages:
    208
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne, northeast suburbs
    If only there was going to be a 50cm dump!!! now back to realty... [​IMG]
     
    #34 snow_obsessed, Apr 26, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  35. Taipan

    Taipan Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2001
    Messages:
    25,475
    Likes Received:
    2,633
    Location:
    Currently NSW North Coast
    I hate early season dumps. Those who have pored over the old graphs of early seasons often found a pretty poor season behind it. Ok not exclusively but often.

    Id rather just see it come in nice in steady. Next Monday is 1st May. 10 days here or there isnt important. However my gut reaction is id rather see 50cm of snow on the 20th May then 20 cm onthe first.

    Nature has a way of playing the "nature" card. Doesnt usually like playing out of season cards for very long and it has a way of balancing up over a progressive 6 month period.
     
  36. Bugski

    Bugski A Local

    Joined:
    Jul 15, 2003
    Messages:
    18,970
    Likes Received:
    7
    Location:
    Hot Ham
    2000. I'll take 90cm at the end of May, thanks.
     
  37. board freek

    board freek One of Us

    Joined:
    May 28, 2005
    Messages:
    1,173
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Eastern Suburbs Melbourne
    yeah well put mahtoh i wouldnt mind that lol
     
  38. Djon

    Djon First Runs

    Joined:
    Mar 3, 2000
    Messages:
    1,301
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne
    I remember seeing snow to sea level in Gippsland last year </strong></font><hr /></blockquote><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">A point of clarification... '522 thickness' is a good indicator of a freeze level at sea level, just like '540 thickness' is a good indicator for 'snow' temperatures across our alps.

    It doesn't mean though that if the thickness is 522 or less that it will be 0 or below at sea level. Conversely if the thickness is above 522 it doesn't mean that it isn't 0 or below at sea level. Also note that snow can fall and settle at temperatures above 0 degrees.

    So we may, or may not have had a thickness of 522 over parts of Victoria last year. I doubt it myself, but think it wouldn't have been far off, say 524.
     
    #38 Djon, Apr 26, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  39. Bugski

    Bugski A Local

    Joined:
    Jul 15, 2003
    Messages:
    18,970
    Likes Received:
    7
    Location:
    Hot Ham
    Back on topic. This could still happen. Could be VERY cold. We'll see.
     
  40. Djon

    Djon First Runs

    Joined:
    Mar 3, 2000
    Messages:
    1,301
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Getting this thread back on track... The long range GFS 'forecast' is showing some nice cold air with good precipitation for the 5th-8th of May. As they say though, it's still a (very) long way out! <img src='http://pages.prodigy.net/indianahawkeye/newpage09/3.gif'>
     
  41. boogabrain

    boogabrain First Runs

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2005
    Messages:
    14
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne, Victoria
    Taipan you're ***

    who doesn't like early season dumps? any snow is good.....

    ----------------------------------------------

    Moderator's note:
    No abuse, however mild, is permitted in the Weather Forum
     
  42. Alex.C

    Alex.C One of Us

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2003
    Messages:
    3,540
    Likes Received:
    71
    Location:
    Canmore
    So you would say about 50% of the time then? [​IMG]
     
    #42 Alex.C, Apr 27, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  43. Dandy500

    Dandy500 First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2003
    Messages:
    54
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Mt Dandenong
    Heh all. This year looks interesting. I don't know a lot about the facts but I know that the last winter season in Europe was a very long cold one. I know the northen and southern hemis are different, but there may be a correlation?
     
  44. adminvb

    adminvb First Runs

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2013
    Messages:
    0
    Likes Received:
    2
    Now look at moi. I've got one word for you, Kim -blocking high.
     
  45. percy_04

    percy_04 First Runs

    Joined:
    Feb 12, 2004
    Messages:
    3,676
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    south aust
    i kno PMG i was just thinking the same thing, looks to b the prob on the 1st - 2nd too.. damn that blocking high. ah well only early days! tasmania still looks good for some snow!
     
  46. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 22, 2000
    Messages:
    3,212
    Likes Received:
    115
    Location:
    tasmania
    Will be some snow for tassie from wed - 3rd - 6th May. The high may stop much weather hitting the mainland resorts it expect!!
     
  47. Cliff-jumper_2000

    Cliff-jumper_2000 First Runs

    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2000
    Messages:
    3,022
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Vic, Australia
    Getting back on topic. Just had a glance at the GFS charts and the 6th more so the 7th of May is possible for some snow now in Vic with the 540 line now pushing up into victoria with some moisture about keep an eye on it :thumbs:
     
  48. Bugski

    Bugski A Local

    Joined:
    Jul 15, 2003
    Messages:
    18,970
    Likes Received:
    7
    Location:
    Hot Ham
    This look on track still. [​IMG]
     
    #48 Bugski, May 2, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  49. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    70,889
    Likes Received:
    25,202
    Location:
    Cranhole, Melbourne, VIC
    yup, looks ok from the latest GFS run. some rain at the least anyways.
     
  50. Djon

    Djon First Runs

    Joined:
    Mar 3, 2000
    Messages:
    1,301
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne
    [​IMG]

    The GFS at least from this morning and afternoon is indicating r*in from the 5th through into the 7th? It is however is showing good potential for some snow from the 7th into the 8th with some quite cold conditions, and some precipitation.

    7th/8th in particular though is still a little way out, and I would expect it will at least 'warm up' a bit as we get closer.
     
    #50 Djon, May 2, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013