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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Bugski, Apr 20, 2006.
Looks interesting again. May peak too early but we'll see.
Edit: changed 5/6 to 6 - 8.
cocky are ya after the last front?
nah keep up the good work it looks like it could have potential.
Just trying to warm up with systems speeds etc for the season.
exactly, practice makes perfect...well close enough anyway.
just in time for my bday
Your on fire so far this season Mahtoh! This winter looks like it could be big. Hopefully it doesn,t run out of puff in July & August when it really counts
really my birthday i will be in Hotham for 21st June
Looks like something on the way
well the +288 GFS on weatherzone looks the goods at this stage for May 5...
...and we all know how reliable that can be
j/k.. could be ok but it's still super early at this stage.
very true, but its encouraging to see that today's +288 is in agreement with Mahtoh's call 4 days ago.
will be interesting to see how the models develop over the next few days
GFS +288 =
GASP +288 = Death by
not saying i disagree with bugski's call though.
See Mahtohsnowatch.com.au for more details...
Well the Frog seems to think a lot less of this event in the 14 day forecast than he did in the long range one!
A silly question mabe.
What does the purple line on the Thickness represent??
Snow at sea level.
522 thickness. As Matoh has said, freeze level is at sea level. We saw it tucked up over NZ a couple of times last season.
And once over Victoria
Last season?!...doubt it!
I remember seeing snow to sea level in Gippsland last year
Yes it was a wednesday 10th August 2005. I was in Thredbo and skied some of the best powder in ive ever seen in Australia.
There were pictures of snow in footprints at a beach in Victoria. I think it was bells.
Ah justed Googled up a search and here we are.
Snow to sea level
I remember seeing snow to sea level in Gippsland last year </strong></font><hr /></blockquote><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">I remember sleeping in an unheated car in Jindabyne with a summer sleeping bag that night.
There is no doubt, it DID snow down to sea level in Victoria last year. It was extremely unusual to say the least.
falls festival site around 400m
I beleive around sandy point somewhere
All photos taken from web so if you took them, thanks
hi guys that last photo is from my home town inverloch in near wonthaggi.
it was the weirdest day ever it hailed then it just went quite so i walked out the office and said to my mait it looks like snow but it cant be???????????????
then all of a sudden it really started to snow quite heavaly it was awsum i will see if i cant find some more pix
yeah, i just heard the weather forecast (though not to accurate a week in advance)and it is predicted to be an absolute DUMP!! maybe even upto 50 cm!!! which is GREAT!!! and it is predicted to last until the ski season starts. should be some absolute pukage around the mountains!!! =) but they are just predictions...
just because i'm a newbie, doesn't mean i aren't smart...
cheers my dears...!!
Settle Pettles!! Ahhhh The eagerness of Newbies!
Yes but your post has done a pretty good job of showing your level of weather knowledge.
If only there was going to be a 50cm dump!!! now back to realty...
I hate early season dumps. Those who have pored over the old graphs of early seasons often found a pretty poor season behind it. Ok not exclusively but often.
Id rather just see it come in nice in steady. Next Monday is 1st May. 10 days here or there isnt important. However my gut reaction is id rather see 50cm of snow on the 20th May then 20 cm onthe first.
Nature has a way of playing the "nature" card. Doesnt usually like playing out of season cards for very long and it has a way of balancing up over a progressive 6 month period.
2000. I'll take 90cm at the end of May, thanks.
yeah well put mahtoh i wouldnt mind that lol
I remember seeing snow to sea level in Gippsland last year </strong></font><hr /></blockquote><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">A point of clarification... '522 thickness' is a good indicator of a freeze level at sea level, just like '540 thickness' is a good indicator for 'snow' temperatures across our alps.
It doesn't mean though that if the thickness is 522 or less that it will be 0 or below at sea level. Conversely if the thickness is above 522 it doesn't mean that it isn't 0 or below at sea level. Also note that snow can fall and settle at temperatures above 0 degrees.
So we may, or may not have had a thickness of 522 over parts of Victoria last year. I doubt it myself, but think it wouldn't have been far off, say 524.
Back on topic. This could still happen. Could be VERY cold. We'll see.
Getting this thread back on track... The long range GFS 'forecast' is showing some nice cold air with good precipitation for the 5th-8th of May. As they say though, it's still a (very) long way out! <img src='http://pages.prodigy.net/indianahawkeye/newpage09/3.gif'>
Taipan you're ***
who doesn't like early season dumps? any snow is good.....
No abuse, however mild, is permitted in the Weather Forum
So you would say about 50% of the time then?
Heh all. This year looks interesting. I don't know a lot about the facts but I know that the last winter season in Europe was a very long cold one. I know the northen and southern hemis are different, but there may be a correlation?
Now look at moi. I've got one word for you, Kim -blocking high.
i kno PMG i was just thinking the same thing, looks to b the prob on the 1st - 2nd too.. damn that blocking high. ah well only early days! tasmania still looks good for some snow!
Will be some snow for tassie from wed - 3rd - 6th May. The high may stop much weather hitting the mainland resorts it expect!!
Getting back on topic. Just had a glance at the GFS charts and the 6th more so the 7th of May is possible for some snow now in Vic with the 540 line now pushing up into victoria with some moisture about keep an eye on it
This look on track still.
yup, looks ok from the latest GFS run. some rain at the least anyways.
The GFS at least from this morning and afternoon is indicating r*in from the 5th through into the 7th? It is however is showing good potential for some snow from the 7th into the 8th with some quite cold conditions, and some precipitation.
7th/8th in particular though is still a little way out, and I would expect it will at least 'warm up' a bit as we get closer.