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6 - 8 May

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Bugski, Apr 20, 2006.

  1. Bugski

    Bugski A Local

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    I reckon the LWT will help more than GFS suggests.
     
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks great for nearly a foot of fresh for coastal ranges of Tas, getting down below 1000m.
    Could we see a foot on Craddle Mountian after the 7th?
     
  3. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    Cold & wet here in Launie tonight! Looks good for snow all day tommorrow. thursday arvo and another good front on saturday afternoon giving tassie more snow top ups [​IMG]
     
    #53 BenLomond Iceman, May 2, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  4. Bugski

    Bugski A Local

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    That may happen tomorrow, I reckon.
     
    #54 Bugski, May 2, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  5. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    #55 BlueHue, May 2, 2006
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  6. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    ok jumped the gun a bit, that front has already being pointed out for May 7/8!
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, this is the system thats been in question since several weeks back. Matoh was just a couple days short of his calculations. Damn good call though!!
     
    #57 POW_hungry, May 2, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  8. Cliff-jumper_2000

    Cliff-jumper_2000 First Runs

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    Looking real good for snow on Sunday judging by the latest GFS charts seen here [​IMG] atleast 5cm more is very possible.
    [​IMG]
     
    #58 Cliff-jumper_2000, May 3, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  9. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    If that comes off Baw Baw / Gwinear will have a foot of snow on monday. I can feel my first day trip coming on.......
     
  10. cactus jack

    cactus jack First Runs

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    does look promising for sunday doesn't it, well picked mahtoh. :clap:
     
  11. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    IF that comes off, then a foot is likely for baw baw/buller southern alps. that is a ripper to have in the middle of the season, let alone in may.

    and personally, even though its 120hours out, GFS has been pretty consistent this year, so, allowing for it to 'warm up' a bit as it gets closer and probably drop some moisture, 20cms looks good at the moment.

    :cheers:
     
  12. Croweater

    Croweater First Runs

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    Vermillion, Cola and GFS are lining up well for your 20cms, the only one who doesn't agree is The Frog. :thumbs:
     
  13. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS is looking tops this morning.
     
  14. Alex.C

    Alex.C One of Us

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    Yes, yes it does:

    [​IMG]
     
    #64 Alex.C, May 3, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  15. churchy

    churchy One of Us

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    gfs looks hawt! could be up to 30cm in that and it's almost cold enough for some of that to hang around til june. a couple more sprinkle and we might even have a white QBW
     
  16. Top Rock

    Top Rock Hard Yards

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    Not starting a new thread 7 & 8 may.....

    Looking very good for low down snow ( with moisture) to 800m or less from midday sunday through till Mon

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  17. Bugski

    Bugski A Local

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    [​IMG] I seem to be doing OK so far. A little off with the timing but meh.

    This system still looks good but I still reckon the one the week after is going to be the snizzle.
     
    #67 Bugski, May 3, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  18. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    You are doing v. well! (But my better half tells its not the size of the front, but the timing it comes through....)

    As we know though the southerleys can be quite dry, particularly for the north side of the range. Mahtoh, do you think there'll be more pre-frontal snow off the later front? What prefrontal can we expect from this one?
     
  19. Bugski

    Bugski A Local

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    OK guys I've changed the dates in this thread from 5/6 to 6 - 8th May. Same system. Stops heaps of threads starting about the same system.
     
  20. Bugski

    Bugski A Local

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    Not much pre-frontal. It doesn't matter anyway as there is no snow on the ground in the resorts. A lot of pre-frontal would actually be good, IMHO. Getting the ground staurated and THEN having a freeze would be excellent from here on in.
     
    #70 Bugski, May 3, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  21. Cliff-jumper_2000

    Cliff-jumper_2000 First Runs

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    Since in posted that chart this morning it has changed for the better i was thinking bout 5-10cm but the updated version pointing to atlest 15-20cm and colder than previous run awsome quiet confident about this comming of now! [​IMG]
     
    #71 Cliff-jumper_2000, May 3, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  22. Bugski

    Bugski A Local

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    This is going to be nice. I am REALLY hoping the trailing high appears a little more NW in tonight's updates. Then it will be even better.
     
  23. Tasnow

    Tasnow First Runs

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    From snowatch.com.au

    Sun 7: strong W winds - gale force at times about the peaks, mostly fine and sunny day

    Mon 8: moderate WNW winds easing later, mainly fine and sunny day

    You're not wrong there!
     
    #73 Tasnow, May 3, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  24. Tasnow

    Tasnow First Runs

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    #74 Tasnow, May 3, 2006
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  25. Mrstr_Chief

    Mrstr_Chief One of Us

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    i concur if that happens then the low will probably stay over tha alps longer ey? meaning a greater chance for more snowfall [​IMG]
     
    #75 Mrstr_Chief, May 3, 2006
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  26. Mrstr_Chief

    Mrstr_Chief One of Us

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    Tasnow you have to realise that that prediction was posted when the charts werent looking that great (the charts are changing all the time, who knows they may even turn for the worst), you also have to remember that the season hasnt started so any snowfall that happens this weekend wont be enough to start building a base. Come winter time i asure you that frog will be right on the mark.
     
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM has'nt bought it yet...
    But i think once they look into GFS/COLA more indepth we will see a less conservative forecast.
    I must admit, it was only yesterday that the models were indicating it to be a bit of fizzer. It's not all that often you see the models upgrade a system like this, it's typically a downgrade.
     
    #77 POW_hungry, May 3, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  28. bogong_flyer

    bogong_flyer First Runs

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    I think that forecast shows the BoM have bought it. Their forecasts are always on the conservative side this far out.

    Based on my calculations the 00z GFS is suggesting at Thredbo that around 10cm will fall prior to 10am Sunday to an altitude of between 1000 and 1100m (which means the village anyway). By Sunday evening, temps at 900hpa (around 1000m) are progged to be around 0C - meaning that snow is likely to fall to around 800m. By that stage the airmass will have dried out and stabilised so we are only talking flurries here - but I would expect Jindabyne to see a few flakes and possibly (but less likely) even Cooma township.

    Given the blizzard conditions likely above 1900m, I would also expect that some of the drifts that build up out of this event will now survive through to November. For the resorts I would say its unlikely that any snow from this event will survive through to the winter. Still if this pattern continues we may well have skiable snow in the 1st week of June.
     
  29. Djon

    Djon First Runs

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    It does look good from Sunday morning, though with some r*in ahead of the snow. Below is what GFS from this afternoon is saying for 10am Sunday morning (00Z) for SE Aus. Other hours of this chart are <a href='http://www.theweatherchaser.com/weather/forecasts/australia/seaus?hour=96'>here</a>. Looks good through into Monday. [​IMG]

    <img src='http://www.theweatherchaser.com/images/forecasts/seaus/seaus.96.2006050300.png'>
     
    #79 Djon, May 3, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  30. Top Rock

    Top Rock Hard Yards

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    new charts coming in and showing a cut off low forming..... still looking the goods for a sizable fall here.....( 20-30cm nsw)

    I feel good about this one.....
     
  31. churchy

    churchy One of Us

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    hmmm, who wants to put a time frame on the front hitting canberra? i'll be in the act on sunday afternoon/evening - i think i'll need to take something warm [​IMG]
     
    #81 churchy, May 3, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Does'nt look to eventuate into a cut off system until it is well over the Tasman.
    GFS is still looking at 15-20cm for mainland alps.
     
  33. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    15-20cms as a minimum id say, if anything this mornings runs look better than yesterday, but are also showing it to cross slightly quicker than yesterday.
     
  34. Wodonga Josh

    Wodonga Josh Part of the Furniture

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    <Exits Hibernation>. Oh good to be back!
    Looks good for this time of the year! However dont expect this one to hang around for too long, id be suprisd if the snow alls for much more than 24 hours as the models show, snow should start falling eatly sunday morning and will be nearly done by monday morning. Everthing has to line up with this system, and it looks like it will!!
     
  35. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    1.7 degrees and very humid at the Top of Thredbo.
    2.0 at Falls Creek.
     
  36. Jacob Anton Malmo

    Jacob Anton Malmo First Runs

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    WOuldnt really say it is humid!
     
  37. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, it's funny how 99% doesn't feel that muggy when the temp drops!
     
  38. Bugski

    Bugski A Local

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    It's done it! :woohoo:
     
    #88 Bugski, May 4, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  39. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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  40. snowmobile

    snowmobile One of Us

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    When in Rome! :woohoo: :woohoo:
     
  41. choc

    choc One of Us

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    Four woohoo's in three posts. Sandy is going to shjt himself!!
     
  42. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

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    [​IMG]


    That a lot of cold air coming in Sunday/Monday, snow below 1000m at least [​IMG] .
     
    #92 Stratus, May 4, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  43. snowcrazed

    snowcrazed One of Us

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    I'm liking the sound of this [​IMG] So this is another one mainly for the southern resorts eh? Hows Buller going to fare? Or is it one that'll be better for Baw Baw again?
     
    #93 snowcrazed, May 4, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  44. Top Rock

    Top Rock Hard Yards

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    As I mentioned, it still looks as if a low will form over Tassy on sunday that should keep the very cold air from swinging to far southerly, thus allowing a good cold moist westerly stream over the NSW resorts..... the next update should confirm this (I hope)

    [​IMG]

    My call....Snow in the Village (thredbo) from Sunday arvo ( about 2:45 pm) for 18-24 hrs

    (20-30cm+)

    I'll be there listening to some great jazz watching the flakes fall and enjoying an odd drink or two :clown: :cheers: ( methinks the late night keller jam sesion will have an extra little umph)
     
  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well we are seeing a steady downgrade in the models they're suggesting a late change Sunday(as are BOM) and overnight fall accumulating to ~15cm for mainland alps. It wont be hanging around, looks to rush through the SE pretty quickly.
     
  46. MISFIT

    MISFIT First Runs

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    Yep downgraded 10-15 cm is my tip.
     
  47. Luken

    Luken One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Misfit + POW hungry, where is the downgrade?

    GASP, GFS and now LAPS all agree on very cold air and between 15 + 40mm of precip for Sunday 24 hours, has been very consistant in the models for at least the last 48hours.

    If anything the models have come more into line over this period.
     
  48. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm still going for 30cms at Baw baw. Max 15 in rest of Vic, particularly if no prefrontal. The prefrontal can still give surprise outcomes, though.
     
  49. Bugski

    Bugski A Local

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    It's not a downgrade as such - the system has the same intensity - but it will move through in a day where it looked before like it could be double that.
     
  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Agreed, obviously the same precip levels and relevant FL, but GFS has a faster tracking of the trailing high, which will ultimately lift and sweep the system through quicker.
     
    #100 POW_hungry, May 5, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013