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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Bugski, Apr 20, 2006.
I reckon the LWT will help more than GFS suggests.
Looks great for nearly a foot of fresh for coastal ranges of Tas, getting down below 1000m.
Could we see a foot on Craddle Mountian after the 7th?
Cold & wet here in Launie tonight! Looks good for snow all day tommorrow. thursday arvo and another good front on saturday afternoon giving tassie more snow top ups
That may happen tomorrow, I reckon.
Not sure if this is best under this May 5/6 thread or needs a new one but next sunday/monday looking like a chance for a decent fall of snow according to GFS on its latest run!
ps can anyone tell me how to actually post the pic/chart in here rather than putting in the link, I'm sure its simple just never done it!
ok jumped the gun a bit, that front has already being pointed out for May 7/8!
Yeah, this is the system thats been in question since several weeks back. Matoh was just a couple days short of his calculations. Damn good call though!!
Looking real good for snow on Sunday judging by the latest GFS charts seen here atleast 5cm more is very possible.
If that comes off Baw Baw / Gwinear will have a foot of snow on monday. I can feel my first day trip coming on.......
does look promising for sunday doesn't it, well picked mahtoh.
IF that comes off, then a foot is likely for baw baw/buller southern alps. that is a ripper to have in the middle of the season, let alone in may.
and personally, even though its 120hours out, GFS has been pretty consistent this year, so, allowing for it to 'warm up' a bit as it gets closer and probably drop some moisture, 20cms looks good at the moment.
Vermillion, Cola and GFS are lining up well for your 20cms, the only one who doesn't agree is The Frog.
GFS is looking tops this morning.
Yes, yes it does:
gfs looks hawt! could be up to 30cm in that and it's almost cold enough for some of that to hang around til june. a couple more sprinkle and we might even have a white QBW
Not starting a new thread 7 & 8 may.....
Looking very good for low down snow ( with moisture) to 800m or less from midday sunday through till Mon
I seem to be doing OK so far. A little off with the timing but meh.
This system still looks good but I still reckon the one the week after is going to be the snizzle.
You are doing v. well! (But my better half tells its not the size of the front, but the timing it comes through....)
As we know though the southerleys can be quite dry, particularly for the north side of the range. Mahtoh, do you think there'll be more pre-frontal snow off the later front? What prefrontal can we expect from this one?
OK guys I've changed the dates in this thread from 5/6 to 6 - 8th May. Same system. Stops heaps of threads starting about the same system.
Not much pre-frontal. It doesn't matter anyway as there is no snow on the ground in the resorts. A lot of pre-frontal would actually be good, IMHO. Getting the ground staurated and THEN having a freeze would be excellent from here on in.
Since in posted that chart this morning it has changed for the better i was thinking bout 5-10cm but the updated version pointing to atlest 15-20cm and colder than previous run awsome quiet confident about this comming of now!
This is going to be nice. I am REALLY hoping the trailing high appears a little more NW in tonight's updates. Then it will be even better.
Sun 7: strong W winds - gale force at times about the peaks, mostly fine and sunny day
Mon 8: moderate WNW winds easing later, mainly fine and sunny day
You're not wrong there!
i concur if that happens then the low will probably stay over tha alps longer ey? meaning a greater chance for more snowfall
Tasnow you have to realise that that prediction was posted when the charts werent looking that great (the charts are changing all the time, who knows they may even turn for the worst), you also have to remember that the season hasnt started so any snowfall that happens this weekend wont be enough to start building a base. Come winter time i asure you that frog will be right on the mark.
BOM has'nt bought it yet...
But i think once they look into GFS/COLA more indepth we will see a less conservative forecast.
I must admit, it was only yesterday that the models were indicating it to be a bit of fizzer. It's not all that often you see the models upgrade a system like this, it's typically a downgrade.
I think that forecast shows the BoM have bought it. Their forecasts are always on the conservative side this far out.
Based on my calculations the 00z GFS is suggesting at Thredbo that around 10cm will fall prior to 10am Sunday to an altitude of between 1000 and 1100m (which means the village anyway). By Sunday evening, temps at 900hpa (around 1000m) are progged to be around 0C - meaning that snow is likely to fall to around 800m. By that stage the airmass will have dried out and stabilised so we are only talking flurries here - but I would expect Jindabyne to see a few flakes and possibly (but less likely) even Cooma township.
Given the blizzard conditions likely above 1900m, I would also expect that some of the drifts that build up out of this event will now survive through to November. For the resorts I would say its unlikely that any snow from this event will survive through to the winter. Still if this pattern continues we may well have skiable snow in the 1st week of June.
It does look good from Sunday morning, though with some r*in ahead of the snow. Below is what GFS from this afternoon is saying for 10am Sunday morning (00Z) for SE Aus. Other hours of this chart are <a href='http://www.theweatherchaser.com/weather/forecasts/australia/seaus?hour=96'>here</a>. Looks good through into Monday.
new charts coming in and showing a cut off low forming..... still looking the goods for a sizable fall here.....( 20-30cm nsw)
I feel good about this one.....
hmmm, who wants to put a time frame on the front hitting canberra? i'll be in the act on sunday afternoon/evening - i think i'll need to take something warm
Does'nt look to eventuate into a cut off system until it is well over the Tasman.
GFS is still looking at 15-20cm for mainland alps.
15-20cms as a minimum id say, if anything this mornings runs look better than yesterday, but are also showing it to cross slightly quicker than yesterday.
<Exits Hibernation>. Oh good to be back!
Looks good for this time of the year! However dont expect this one to hang around for too long, id be suprisd if the snow alls for much more than 24 hours as the models show, snow should start falling eatly sunday morning and will be nearly done by monday morning. Everthing has to line up with this system, and it looks like it will!!
1.7 degrees and very humid at the Top of Thredbo.
2.0 at Falls Creek.
WOuldnt really say it is humid!
Yeah, it's funny how 99% doesn't feel that muggy when the temp drops!
It's done it!
When in Rome!
Four woohoo's in three posts. Sandy is going to shjt himself!!
That a lot of cold air coming in Sunday/Monday, snow below 1000m at least .
I'm liking the sound of this So this is another one mainly for the southern resorts eh? Hows Buller going to fare? Or is it one that'll be better for Baw Baw again?
As I mentioned, it still looks as if a low will form over Tassy on sunday that should keep the very cold air from swinging to far southerly, thus allowing a good cold moist westerly stream over the NSW resorts..... the next update should confirm this (I hope)
My call....Snow in the Village (thredbo) from Sunday arvo ( about 2:45 pm) for 18-24 hrs
I'll be there listening to some great jazz watching the flakes fall and enjoying an odd drink or two ( methinks the late night keller jam sesion will have an extra little umph)
Well we are seeing a steady downgrade in the models they're suggesting a late change Sunday(as are BOM) and overnight fall accumulating to ~15cm for mainland alps. It wont be hanging around, looks to rush through the SE pretty quickly.
Yep downgraded 10-15 cm is my tip.
Misfit + POW hungry, where is the downgrade?
GASP, GFS and now LAPS all agree on very cold air and between 15 + 40mm of precip for Sunday 24 hours, has been very consistant in the models for at least the last 48hours.
If anything the models have come more into line over this period.
I'm still going for 30cms at Baw baw. Max 15 in rest of Vic, particularly if no prefrontal. The prefrontal can still give surprise outcomes, though.
It's not a downgrade as such - the system has the same intensity - but it will move through in a day where it looked before like it could be double that.
Agreed, obviously the same precip levels and relevant FL, but GFS has a faster tracking of the trailing high, which will ultimately lift and sweep the system through quicker.