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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Bugski, Apr 20, 2006.
Tail end of first front going through melbourne, now. Due westerley.
im in inverloch near phillip island and we just got hit with the start of it here its pi****ing down here right now and just got very cold
Yeh geelong dropped 4 degrees when it hit. Baw Baws on 3.2 now, so they may get something out of this even.
hmmmmm i hope so i just got my new bord yesterday and i need to play!!!!!
i should say my first bord i just wanna see how it slides
it's a boa[/a]rd, not a bord.
and please don't take it for a spin tomorrow - there'll be so many rocks and sticks and other nastys hiding underneath the thin layer of snow just waiting to rip the guts out of your board.
i reckon 15cm up top for this - i have a feeling a decent chunk of that precip will fall outside the times the temp gets to -ves....
i wont take it out but you no the feeling when you get a new toy you just have to get it out.
but i no i will destroy it so ill keep it locked up
but i hope this comes off just because i love the weather
Wow - bom 4 day chart just turned into a 10am / 10pm 4 day chart..Tuesday looks ok too
Just had a downpour in melton and the temperature has dropped heaps
Raining plenty here, Endeavour Hills (near Dandenong). 12.5C outside, usually if its like this its dumping up on the mountains! Obviously differs because of pressures and stuff, but as far as I'm concerned here... eyyyyy
Edit: did anyone notice hothams at 0.6C? If this continues into tonight surely they'll get a little something
That little low over tassy will do just the job on sunday, that should keep the very cold air from swinging to far southerly, thus allowing a good cold moist westerly stream over the NSW resorts.....
Still holding to 20-30cms thredbo sunday, monday
Sunday looks like being a corker for Tasmania, with most of the activity due to arrive at night together with the coldest air Monday morning could well see the snowline drop to the elevated suburbs in Hobart...minimum 3 degrees forecast
This is starting to get interesting now,i cant recall bom releasing a sheep graziers warning 3 days before the event before.
My weatherzone weekend weather forecast says snow monday min -5 max -1 and i have the day off
SOUTH WEST SLOPES
Refer to the Snowy Mountains Forecast [ALPS] for areas above 1200 m
Chance of a shower near the Victorian border, otherwise fine. Light westerly winds.
Isolated showers in the far south, otherwise dry. Light northwest winds.
A sheep graziers warning is current for cold, wet and windy weather. Overcast with rain. Rain tending to snow showers, small hail and local thunder about the ranges in the southeast later in the day. Cool, fresh and gusty northwest winds ahead of a colder southwest change in the afternoon.
Isolated showers contracting to the ranges during the day, with some early snow showers about the higher ranges in the southeast. Cold day. Southwesterly winds.
Fine, morning frost. Cool. Light winds.
Wagga Wagga for Saturday
Dry and partly cloudy. Light to moderate north to northwest winds. UV Index 4 [Moderate]
Wagga Wagga for Sunday
Overcast with rain periods. Fresh northwest winds, turning colder southwesterly in the afternoon.
Precis and temperatures for Saturday
Wagga Wagga : Dry, partly cloudy.
this front -->
hmmmmmm...... pressure's quite high and it's moving a bit fast for my liking....
Baw Baw will do Ok, and Lake Mountain.
Yep just saw this system (admitedly haven't been looking) .. looks very nice for a decent dump Sunday / monday, possibly 20-30 cm out of this. LAPS, GASP and GFS all looking very nice (GFS not so much) ...
GFS not so much?
Sorry, you are right that was GASP, not GFS . GASP is not showing as much moisture, and a slightly smaller cold pool.
The cut off low for Sunday looks a bit more promising. Probably dropping to a bit above 1000hPa across southern Victoria.
should get something out of this though
red cross mate
damn when i click show picture it comes up though??
Yes, pressure isn't the main issue for me as its more a question of instability within the given air mass and available moisture as the air is lifted over the ranges down there. Good snowfalls are typically associated with good RH at 700 so look for this on the charts.
Further to Blackheath's comments and for general interest:
This the 48Hour forecast for Relative Humidity.
This the current Relative Humidity.
This the 48Hour forecast for MSLP, THK, Precipitation.
Current weather situation.
These links will update each day.
wheres all the snow i guess ill just keep waiting...!
Buller's just hit -0.1.
Snowing everywhere (at buller), including bottom of LBS, Bourke St, etc.
actually, its started everywhere! Falls has a trace, same with Hotham. Baw Baw's started a nice accumulation (1 or 2 cms)!
snowing at bawbaw too!
Well its started!
The temperature will continue to drop throughout the day, so will the snow level, my estimate is about 1000m, and as more moisutre is pushed and develops over the alps there could be some good accumulations later. 10 - 20cm maybe over areas like Falls/Hotham and NSW resorts.
Latest Sat and synoptic:
WOW...look at the falls cams.really coming down now!
bloody hell - NSW bom now going for between 40 and 80cm for next 24hrs
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header"> Code:</div><div class="ubbcode-body ubbcode-pre" style="height: 144px;"><pre>QUANTITATIVE RAINFALL (for Snowyhydro)
CABRAMURRA PERISHER VALLEY
Today (9am/3pm) 4 4
Tonight (3pm/9am) 4 4
Monday (24hr from 9am) 1 1
Tuesday (24hr from 9am) 1 1
Range: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Precipitation (mm): <1 1-5 6-10 11-20 21-40 41-80 >80</pre></div></div>
WoW this is looking like one of the biggest snowfalls of the year, And as per usual some of it will probably hang around till just before opening weekend, at which time there will be next to nothing left. except maybe up high in NSW.
and then we will get a decense season starter front, but still smaller than this half way thoughout the first week of the season.
Hard not to get excited, with so much snow on the cams.
Although i think the 40-80cm's is a bit much, i really dont see too much more moisture in this system after about 6:00 tonight.
EDIT: above should read. SO FAR this year.
Biggest snowfalls of the year? Gonna be a sad year... Although, its hard to tell from the cameras But it really doesnt look more than the April 6th falls at Buller from what I can tell on the snow cams. Problem is the sumit cam is completely white!
WE can't really compare this to snowfalls that havn't even happened yet...
Also the above chart is precipitation in mm, not snow in cm.
Doesn't '1mm of rain = 1cm of snow'?
i think it can but wont always. extremely rough guess. it depends on temp, and a whole bunch of other stuff
Roughly 1mm of rain = 1cm of snow. The colder the temperatures are, the more snow you get for the amount of precipitation.
Its hard to prove anything though, because you will find mostly all rain gauges are pretty useless in snowy conditions
But I think we can safely say 40cm would be the very top end of what is possible out of this system, all the main rainbands have moved through, we are now getting the colder patchy snow showers which come after the main front. But in saying that, there is still a fair but of precipitation coming across Victoria
am i crazy or is this true QUANTITATIVE RAINFALL (for Snowyhydro)
CABRAMURRA PERISHER VALLEY
Tonight (3pm/9am) 4 4
Monday (24hr from 9am) 1 2
Tuesday (24hr from 9am) 1 1
Range: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Precipitation (mm): <1 1-5 6-10 11-20 21-40 41-80 >80
now please correct me if i am wrong but does that mean 21-40mm of rain which would be 21-40 cm of snow if it fell as snow which i think it might. http://ski.com.au/weather/cola_mslp_24.html
please hold the insults as i am very new to weather prediction
Well the 4:30 NSW BOM Update is still going for
21-40mm tonight...... Im not really sure where its going to come from, but i guess they are the experts!
They are predicting a minimum of -6 tonight for top of thredbo, so the snow that does fall will be nice a dry, and it will be a nice freeze for all the rest!
Well you have got to remember the cola charts shows cumulative rainfall from 10pm-10pm, so although there is some nice green showing for today, that is talking about whats already gone through and what will go through before 10pm.... After 10pm tonight the cola charts are only predicting around 5mm
So the cola charts arenâ€™t really backing up the BOM here, cause as alot of people have been saying around here, this is a relativly fast moving system.
Yes, the cold air convection showers should bring some more cover for sure. Not a bad cold air field for early May. Good 700 hPa moisture with the front/rain band really got things going earlier today and now as the upper air gets colder and enhances instability, those coldies moving in should produce the goods, we hope!
Like what Plaecbo said.
Also these charts are based off GFS that could be more helpfull in getting a rough estimate of snow accumulation.
in Oz the 1mm=1cm approximation works pretty well
They tend to state the daily predicted precipitation in both the '9am - 3pm' amount and the 3pm - 9am amount.
(ie. they are predicting 21-40mm of precipitation between 9am Sunday and 9am Monday).
If you have a look at tomorrow mornings forecast it will probably have '2' for both time intervals just like todays had 4's for both. Thats my take on it from watching the weather for the past 4 seasons or so.
Got up to Lake Mountain early this arvo...freezing level before the shower was 1320m with patchy snow lying about, after the first fall the FZL had dropped to near 1000m, and after then ext one, which was really good!! there was sleet to 870m and the FZL was down there too...
Lots of pics if I can get my tail into gear...
ah, and for anyone interested, Tango got Res Chall and RUBOB in soooo much rain (ie: 40-60mm/hr) that he had to stand there with his eyes shut hehehehe
All you can hope that some of it may survive to commence a base by June. Expect to lose most of it before then.
Dont forget Antartica is slowly cooling. If your young, keep watching the seasons from now on to see whether our ski depths and season lengths start to increase. Take it a decade at a time.
Yes its a long time, but weather changes slowly unless your in hollywood.
My gut feeling is that our seasons are now slowly starting to improve over the 80's and the 90's although our global warming friends would disagree.
Just Checked out the buller and the falls creek car park. 7.45pm shot. coming down nicely.
Dont forget that Austar/Fox are running warren miller ski movies every saturday and sunday night at 8.30pm for May on fuel TV. (And no i dont have a financial interest).
Lake Mountain this afternoon...
This is a fun one...
- apologies for the crappy image resolution/colour etc...I'm on a lappy and I have no idea what they really look like till I get my computer back
Looking good! If I hadnt driven up after the snowfall in early april I would've definitly gone up to Buller today
Saving $$$ on fuel so I can go more in the season.
So can we expect anything more out of this system? The rain radar seems to indicate not much on the way...
Cool looks like a nice start up there. Can't wait to see what everything looks like tommorow.