6 - 8 May

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Bugski, Apr 20, 2006.

  1. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2003
    Messages:
    16,985
    Likes Received:
    8,800
    Location:
    melbourne
    Tail end of first front going through melbourne, now. Due westerley.
     
  2. needsnow

    needsnow First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2005
    Messages:
    107
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    vic
    im in inverloch near phillip island and we just got hit with the start of it here its pi****ing down here right now and just got very cold
     
  3. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2003
    Messages:
    16,985
    Likes Received:
    8,800
    Location:
    melbourne
    Yeh geelong dropped 4 degrees when it hit. Baw Baws on 3.2 now, so they may get something out of this even.
     
  4. needsnow

    needsnow First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2005
    Messages:
    107
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    vic
    hmmmmm i hope so i just got my new bord yesterday and i need to play!!!!!

    i should say my first bord i just wanna see how it slides
     
  5. churchy

    churchy One of Us

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2004
    Messages:
    7,433
    Likes Received:
    6
    it's a boa[/a]rd, not a bord.
    and please don't take it for a spin tomorrow - there'll be so many rocks and sticks and other nastys hiding underneath the thin layer of snow just waiting to rip the guts out of your board.

    i reckon 15cm up top for this - i have a feeling a decent chunk of that precip will fall outside the times the temp gets to -ves....
     
  6. needsnow

    needsnow First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2005
    Messages:
    107
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    vic
    churchy

    i wont take it out but you no the feeling when you get a new toy you just have to get it out.
    but i no i will destroy it so ill keep it locked up

    but i hope this comes off just because i love the weather
     
  7. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2003
    Messages:
    16,985
    Likes Received:
    8,800
    Location:
    melbourne
    Wow - bom 4 day chart just turned into a 10am / 10pm 4 day chart..Tuesday looks ok too
     
  8. snowbabe123

    snowbabe123 First Runs

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2006
    Messages:
    93
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Just had a downpour in melton and the temperature has dropped heaps
     
  9. snowcrazed

    snowcrazed One of Us

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2004
    Messages:
    2,978
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Aspendale, Vic, Australia
    Raining plenty here, Endeavour Hills (near Dandenong). 12.5C outside, usually if its like this its dumping up on the mountains! Obviously differs because of pressures and stuff, but as far as I'm concerned here... eyyyyy [​IMG]

    Edit: did anyone notice hothams at 0.6C? If this continues into tonight surely they'll get a little something [​IMG]
     
    #109 snowcrazed, May 5, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  10. Top Rock

    Top Rock Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 1, 2004
    Messages:
    445
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Thredbo
    That little low over tassy will do just the job on sunday, that should keep the very cold air from swinging to far southerly, thus allowing a good cold moist westerly stream over the NSW resorts.....

    [​IMG]

    Still holding to 20-30cms thredbo sunday, monday
     
  11. zar

    zar One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 18, 2004
    Messages:
    2,270
    Likes Received:
    73
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Sunday looks like being a corker for Tasmania, with most of the activity due to arrive at night together with the coldest air Monday morning could well see the snowline drop to the elevated suburbs in Hobart...minimum 3 degrees forecast
     
  12. mountainman

    mountainman First Runs

    Joined:
    May 4, 2003
    Messages:
    430
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    kunama 975mtrs snowy mountains
    This is starting to get interesting now,i cant recall bom releasing a sheep graziers warning 3 days before the event before.
    My weatherzone weekend weather forecast says snow monday min -5 max -1 and i have the day off
     
  13. mountainman

    mountainman First Runs

    Joined:
    May 4, 2003
    Messages:
    430
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    kunama 975mtrs snowy mountains
    SOUTH WEST SLOPES

    Refer to the Snowy Mountains Forecast [ALPS] for areas above 1200 m
    Tonight
    Chance of a shower near the Victorian border, otherwise fine. Light westerly winds.

    Saturday
    Isolated showers in the far south, otherwise dry. Light northwest winds.

    Sunday
    A sheep graziers warning is current for cold, wet and windy weather. Overcast with rain. Rain tending to snow showers, small hail and local thunder about the ranges in the southeast later in the day. Cool, fresh and gusty northwest winds ahead of a colder southwest change in the afternoon.

    Monday
    Isolated showers contracting to the ranges during the day, with some early snow showers about the higher ranges in the southeast. Cold day. Southwesterly winds.

    Tuesday
    Fine, morning frost. Cool. Light winds.

    Wagga Wagga for Saturday
    Dry and partly cloudy. Light to moderate north to northwest winds. UV Index 4 [Moderate]
    Min:9 Max:19

    Wagga Wagga for Sunday
    Overcast with rain periods. Fresh northwest winds, turning colder southwesterly in the afternoon.
    Min:8 Max:19

    Precis and temperatures for Saturday
    Wagga Wagga : Dry, partly cloudy.
    Min:9 Max:19
     
  14. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    71,670
    Likes Received:
    26,132
    Location:
    Cranhole, Melbourne, VIC
    this front --> :thumbs:
     
  15. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    64,323
    Likes Received:
    11,730
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    hmmmmmm...... pressure's quite high and it's moving a bit fast for my liking....

    Baw Baw will do Ok, and Lake Mountain.
     
  16. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 1999
    Messages:
    39,106
    Likes Received:
    4,205
    Location:
    An airport
    Yep just saw this system (admitedly haven't been looking) .. looks very nice for a decent dump Sunday / monday, possibly 20-30 cm out of this. LAPS, GASP and GFS all looking very nice (GFS not so much) ...
     
  17. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    71,670
    Likes Received:
    26,132
    Location:
    Cranhole, Melbourne, VIC
    GFS not so much? [​IMG]
     
    #117 Vermillion, May 5, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  18. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 1999
    Messages:
    39,106
    Likes Received:
    4,205
    Location:
    An airport
    Sorry, you are right that was GASP, not GFS :doh: . GASP is not showing as much moisture, and a slightly smaller cold pool.
     
  19. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    64,323
    Likes Received:
    11,730
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    The cut off low for Sunday looks a bit more promising. Probably dropping to a bit above 1000hPa across southern Victoria.
     
  20. board freek

    board freek One of Us

    Joined:
    May 28, 2005
    Messages:
    1,173
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Eastern Suburbs Melbourne
    should get something out of this though
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #120 board freek, May 5, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  21. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 1999
    Messages:
    39,106
    Likes Received:
    4,205
    Location:
    An airport
    red cross mate [​IMG]
     
    #121 trappers, May 5, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  22. board freek

    board freek One of Us

    Joined:
    May 28, 2005
    Messages:
    1,173
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Eastern Suburbs Melbourne
    damn when i click show picture it comes up though??
     
  23. BlueMountains

    BlueMountains First Runs

    Joined:
    May 5, 2001
    Messages:
    484
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Upper Blue Mountains of NSW at 1100 metres ASL
    Yes, pressure isn't the main issue for me as its more a question of instability within the given air mass and available moisture as the air is lifted over the ranges down there. Good snowfalls are typically associated with good RH at 700 so look for this on the charts.
     
  24. fdxrate

    fdxrate Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Apr 5, 2001
    Messages:
    697
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    NSW, Australia
    Further to Blackheath's comments and for general interest:

    [​IMG]
    This the 48Hour forecast for Relative Humidity.

    [​IMG]
    This the current Relative Humidity.

    [​IMG]
    This the 48Hour forecast for MSLP, THK, Precipitation.

    [​IMG]
    Current weather situation.

    These links will update each day.
     
    #124 fdxrate, May 6, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  25. Bugski

    Bugski A Local

    Joined:
    Jul 15, 2003
    Messages:
    18,970
    Likes Received:
    7
    Location:
    Hot Ham
    Incoming!

    [​IMG]

    (won't update)
     
    #125 Bugski, May 6, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  26. snow_obsessed

    snow_obsessed First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 10, 2005
    Messages:
    208
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne, northeast suburbs
    wheres all the snow [​IMG]i guess ill just keep waiting...!
     
    #126 snow_obsessed, May 7, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  27. Scarecrow86

    Scarecrow86 Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Nov 4, 2004
    Messages:
    35
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Buller's just hit -0.1.

    Snowing everywhere (at buller), including bottom of LBS, Bourke St, etc.

    WOOHOO!
    :woohoo:
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    actually, its started everywhere! Falls has a trace, same with Hotham. Baw Baw's started a nice accumulation (1 or 2 cms)!
     
    #127 Scarecrow86, May 7, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  28. snow_obsessed

    snow_obsessed First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 10, 2005
    Messages:
    208
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne, northeast suburbs
    snowing at bawbaw too!
     
  29. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,110
    Likes Received:
    292
    Location:
    Edithvale VIC
    Well its started!

    The temperature will continue to drop throughout the day, so will the snow level, my estimate is about 1000m, and as more moisutre is pushed and develops over the alps there could be some good accumulations later. 10 - 20cm maybe over areas like Falls/Hotham and NSW resorts.

    Latest Sat and synoptic:

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    (will update)

    [​IMG]
     
    #129 Stratus, May 7, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  30. snow_obsessed

    snow_obsessed First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 10, 2005
    Messages:
    208
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne, northeast suburbs
    WOW...look at the falls cams.really coming down now!
     
  31. Louie

    Louie A Local

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 1999
    Messages:
    9,119
    Likes Received:
    1,535
    Location:
    NSW
    bloody hell - NSW bom now going for between 40 and 80cm for next 24hrs

    http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDN10103.txt

    <div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header"> Code:</div><div class="ubbcode-body ubbcode-pre" style="height: 144px;"><pre>QUANTITATIVE RAINFALL (for Snowyhydro)
    CABRAMURRA PERISHER VALLEY
    Today (9am/3pm) 4 4
    Tonight (3pm/9am) 4 4
    Monday (24hr from 9am) 1 1
    Tuesday (24hr from 9am) 1 1

    Range: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
    Precipitation (mm): &lt;1 1-5 6-10 11-20 21-40 41-80 &gt;80</pre></div></div>
     
    #131 Louie, May 7, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  32. Pied_Piper

    Pied_Piper First Runs

    Joined:
    May 7, 2004
    Messages:
    429
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    London
    WoW this is looking like one of the biggest snowfalls of the year, And as per usual some of it will probably hang around till just before opening weekend, at which time there will be next to nothing left. except maybe up high in NSW.

    and then we will get a decense season starter front, but still smaller than this half way thoughout the first week of the season.

    Hard not to get excited, with so much snow on the cams.

    Although i think the 40-80cm's is a bit much, i really dont see too much more moisture in this system after about 6:00 tonight.

    EDIT: above should read. SO FAR this year.
    sorry [​IMG]
     
    #132 Pied_Piper, May 7, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  33. snowcrazed

    snowcrazed One of Us

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2004
    Messages:
    2,978
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Aspendale, Vic, Australia
    Biggest snowfalls of the year? Gonna be a sad year... Although, its hard to tell from the cameras [​IMG] But it really doesnt look more than the April 6th falls at Buller from what I can tell on the snow cams. Problem is the sumit cam is completely white!
     
    #133 snowcrazed, May 7, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  34. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,110
    Likes Received:
    292
    Location:
    Edithvale VIC
    WE can't really compare this to snowfalls that havn't even happened yet...

    Also the above chart is precipitation in mm, not snow in cm.
     
  35. Bullwheel

    Bullwheel Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2003
    Messages:
    944
    Likes Received:
    10
    Location:
    Sydney
    Doesn't '1mm of rain = 1cm of snow'?
     
    #135 Bullwheel, May 7, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  36. Parkchild

    Parkchild First Runs

    Joined:
    May 15, 2004
    Messages:
    193
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    sydney- north shore
    i think it can but wont always. extremely rough guess. it depends on temp, and a whole bunch of other stuff
     
  37. Placebo

    Placebo First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2004
    Messages:
    856
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Sydney
    Roughly 1mm of rain = 1cm of snow. The colder the temperatures are, the more snow you get for the amount of precipitation.

    Its hard to prove anything though, because you will find mostly all rain gauges are pretty useless in snowy conditions

    But I think we can safely say 40cm would be the very top end of what is possible out of this system, all the main rainbands have moved through, we are now getting the colder patchy snow showers which come after the main front. But in saying that, there is still a fair but of precipitation coming across Victoria
     
  38. Ben skiing is nearly here

    Ben skiing is nearly here First Runs

    Joined:
    May 27, 2005
    Messages:
    103
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Sydney
    am i crazy or is this true QUANTITATIVE RAINFALL (for Snowyhydro)
    CABRAMURRA PERISHER VALLEY
    Tonight (3pm/9am) 4 4
    Monday (24hr from 9am) 1 2
    Tuesday (24hr from 9am) 1 1

    Range: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
    Precipitation (mm): <1 1-5 6-10 11-20 21-40 41-80 >80
    now please correct me if i am wrong but does that mean 21-40mm of rain which would be 21-40 cm of snow if it fell as snow which i think it might. http://ski.com.au/weather/cola_mslp_24.html
    please hold the insults as i am very new to weather prediction
     
    #138 Ben skiing is nearly here, May 7, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  39. Placebo

    Placebo First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2004
    Messages:
    856
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Sydney
    Well the 4:30 NSW BOM Update is still going for
    21-40mm tonight...... Im not really sure where its going to come from, but i guess they are the experts!


    They are predicting a minimum of -6 tonight for top of thredbo, so the snow that does fall will be nice a dry, and it will be a nice freeze for all the rest!
     
  40. Placebo

    Placebo First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2004
    Messages:
    856
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Sydney
    Well you have got to remember the cola charts shows cumulative rainfall from 10pm-10pm, so although there is some nice green showing for today, that is talking about whats already gone through and what will go through before 10pm.... After 10pm tonight the cola charts are only predicting around 5mm
    So the cola charts aren’t really backing up the BOM here, cause as alot of people have been saying around here, this is a relativly fast moving system.
     
    #140 Placebo, May 7, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  41. Ben skiing is nearly here

    Ben skiing is nearly here First Runs

    Joined:
    May 27, 2005
    Messages:
    103
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Sydney
  42. BlueMountains

    BlueMountains First Runs

    Joined:
    May 5, 2001
    Messages:
    484
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Upper Blue Mountains of NSW at 1100 metres ASL
    Yes, the cold air convection showers should bring some more cover for sure. Not a bad cold air field for early May. Good 700 hPa moisture with the front/rain band really got things going earlier today and now as the upper air gets colder and enhances instability, those coldies moving in should produce the goods, we hope!
     
  43. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,110
    Likes Received:
    292
    Location:
    Edithvale VIC
    Like what Plaecbo said.

    Also these charts are based off GFS that could be more helpfull in getting a rough estimate of snow accumulation.
    http://www.weatherzone.com.au/charts/twcGrads.jsp?model=gfs&hour=24&domain=AUS&chart=snowcast

    [​IMG]
     
    #143 Stratus, May 7, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  44. Louie

    Louie A Local

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 1999
    Messages:
    9,119
    Likes Received:
    1,535
    Location:
    NSW
    in Oz the 1mm=1cm approximation works pretty well
     
  45. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    22,128
    Likes Received:
    14,621
    Location:
    Dubbo NSW
    They tend to state the daily predicted precipitation in both the '9am - 3pm' amount and the 3pm - 9am amount.

    (ie. they are predicting 21-40mm of precipitation between 9am Sunday and 9am Monday).

    If you have a look at tomorrow mornings forecast it will probably have '2' for both time intervals just like todays had 4's for both. Thats my take on it from watching the weather for the past 4 seasons or so.
     
    #145 Snow Blowey, May 7, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  46. AUSSKY

    AUSSKY First Runs

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2000
    Messages:
    1,345
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Woodend/Trentham
    Got up to Lake Mountain early this arvo...freezing level before the shower was 1320m with patchy snow lying about, after the first fall the FZL had dropped to near 1000m, and after then ext one, which was really good!! there was sleet to 870m and the FZL was down there too...

    Lots of pics if I can get my tail into gear...

    ah, and for anyone interested, Tango got Res Chall and RUBOB in soooo much rain (ie: 40-60mm/hr) that he had to stand there with his eyes shut hehehehe
     
  47. Taipan

    Taipan Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2001
    Messages:
    27,309
    Likes Received:
    3,126
    Location:
    Currently NSW North Coast
    All you can hope that some of it may survive to commence a base by June. Expect to lose most of it before then.

    Dont forget Antartica is slowly cooling. If your young, keep watching the seasons from now on to see whether our ski depths and season lengths start to increase. Take it a decade at a time.

    Yes its a long time, but weather changes slowly unless your in hollywood.

    My gut feeling is that our seasons are now slowly starting to improve over the 80's and the 90's although our global warming friends would disagree.

    Edit

    Just Checked out the buller and the falls creek car park. 7.45pm shot. coming down nicely.

    Dont forget that Austar/Fox are running warren miller ski movies every saturday and sunday night at 8.30pm for May on fuel TV. (And no i dont have a financial interest).
     
  48. AUSSKY

    AUSSKY First Runs

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2000
    Messages:
    1,345
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Woodend/Trentham
    Lake Mountain this afternoon...
    [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG]

    This is a fun one...
    Going crosseyed......
    - apologies for the crappy image resolution/colour etc...I'm on a lappy and I have no idea what they really look like till I get my computer back
     
    #148 AUSSKY, May 7, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  49. snowcrazed

    snowcrazed One of Us

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2004
    Messages:
    2,978
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Aspendale, Vic, Australia
    Looking good! If I hadnt driven up after the snowfall in early april I would've definitly gone up to Buller today [​IMG]

    Saving $$$ on fuel so I can go more in the season.

    So can we expect anything more out of this system? The rain radar seems to indicate not much on the way...
     
    #149 snowcrazed, May 7, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  50. Alex.C

    Alex.C One of Us

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2003
    Messages:
    3,557
    Likes Received:
    100
    Location:
    Canmore
    Cool looks like a nice start up there. Can't wait to see what everything looks like tommorow.