Predictions 6th-11th August

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Jul 24, 2019.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    There's enough long wave presence in this period to suggest a decent snow bearing system through the South East in the 4th-8th Dates range.
    Ensembles already picking up on this, and supported by some trend.
    LR factors include a MJO (albeit weak) signal coinciding with a R Wave through our region.

    As well as strong PV influence courtesy of decoupling (warming event) scenario downstream of South America, causing another shift of the PV off the pole.

    EC:

    GFS:


    Strat warming influencing imbalance in PV:
    [​IMG]
     
  2. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    -AAO is back. The propagation is awkward, but it will smooth out in the next few days.

    With a longwave alone, we are in a weak position. But with -AAO support, we have a fighting chance here.

    But it's probably not a great idea to call it a beast quite yet ;)
     
  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah I think we’ll see a shift to -AAO trend on the Ensembles again in the next week.
    Also The Canuck has strong MJO values projected for this period.
     
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  4. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    I don't think the MJO will be a big player in this system period IMO. There's a signal, but it's not going to be strong.

    -AAO and the longwave are the big players here. The timing of the -AAO will determine the intensity of the system.

     
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Agreed, as per initial post.
    Just flagging the Canucks prog as an outlier.
     
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  6. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    @POW_hungry is dominating. Saw this piece of hope at the end of today's model run, was going to put a note in the BBQ thread, but nope, there's already a dedicated thread.
     
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  7. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's been there on some of the ensembles for a few days now.
     
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  8. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    More 8th than 4th methinks but it's a long way.
     
  9. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    6th, 7th and 8th, and maybe the 9th are the key dates here.
    The good stuff tends to stem right behind the LWT.
     
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  10. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS- Plots like this are a tad too prolific throughout the date range. Needs to ( and hopefully will ) change. Imo
     
  11. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some of the EC Ensemble members are quite flirtatious with this period.
     
  12. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    I predict it’s never good when prediction threads go quiet for more 24 hrs at the end of July ..
     
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  13. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    It’s not exactly a great forecast at the moment.

    GFS shows a 5-10cm type of system.
    EPS Control shows a massive Pineapple Express.
    Give it some days.
     
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  14. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    I am watching this weather system.I want some proper snow for my snow camping / ski touring trip at JB Hut on 5,6,7th of August!
     
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 06z signalling the 2019 haymaker, this evening.
    Dream set-up from 5-10th Aug.
    Revel in it, as it's not likely to be there tomorrow.

    Jokes aside, I don't think too much of a NW Pineapple scenario with the way the SSTA's and lame OLR values throughout the Indo IO region - not now, not in 2 weeks. It's Bombay Saphire AF; dry and chilled IMO.
     
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  16. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just for shits, giggles and posterity.
    Post a couple...
    Said in best Iverson voice
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    5th (Buller blitzkrieg):

    8th:
     
  18. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    In fairness.
    I reckon most of the charts are anchoring a H 800kms SW of Perth.
    Seems a bit of a trend.
    Circa 5th aug
     
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  19. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    LWT looks like it’s weakening and running out of steam in the last GFS frames.
    Looks like we will have to wait for the next longwave at this point.
     
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    100%
    Much more than a hunch here.
     
  21. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's the only "trend" I'm seeing
     
  22. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ensembles are showing them....



    That said, GEPS and EPS are still very much flirting with scenarios around the 7th, 8th and 9th, 10th of August.
     
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not convinced GFS has a grip on the LR of the PV/LW here.
     
  24. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking quite lazy on the 3rd.
     
  25. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    It certainly explains the theory about blocking over the 5th.
    And it fits the interpretation I have of the stratospheric-tropospheric relationship in this instance.

    Only time will tell.
     
  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    In usual GFS fashion the deterministic modeling is a dog’s breaky >160 hours.
    GFS is struggling in the LR at the moment IMO.
    I will be ignoring for at least 2-4 days.
     
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  27. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    In surfing point break terms we need a grower :)
     
  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    That Tasman low is one of which.
    It’s on the ‘roids.
     
  29. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some love from the Canadians early in the week, some love from gfs later in the week. Not much on the other 2. All over the shop and with not much inter-model consensus I'm not vibing.
     
  30. 14-km EPS Global Australia & NZ 500 hPa Height Anom (1).gif download (2).png 14-km EPS Global Australia & NZ 500 hPa Z Norm Anom.gif ecmwf-aus-snow_15day-5352000.png
    EPS***
    Not one decent trough.
     

    Attached Files:

  31. GFS ens 2019-07-26 10_52_16-GEFS ENS_ WeatherBell Maps.png gfs-newsouthwales-z500_anom_10day-4941600.png gfs-aus-snow_240hr-4941600.png

    Nada zilch nothing. Hope they change, but very low confidence in any
    major pattern change in the models atm.
     
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  32. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    looks good for NZ at least (because im there 4-11th)
     
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  33. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Remember the Highs are our friends.
     
  34. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    You want a thaw freeze cycle?

    I need a 50cm dump to fill Buller’s bowls. Then you can have your sun.
     
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  35. Scoober

    Scoober One of Us

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    If GFS 00' run would come to fruition we'd be getting 1m+ from 7th-11th August
     
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  36. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    For the dreamers...


    EC hasn’t come into range yet, so I think we should hold back a few more days until we get some results from it.
     
  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC & GFS both honing in on the 8th August, this morning.
    [​IMG]
    EC
     
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  38. Paperboy

    Paperboy One of Us

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    Can we dream, still a long way out.

     
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  39. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    A sub 980 L off the west coast of Tassie

    Boy oh boy
     
  40. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Even if this low pressure weather system gives us no snow, the weather chart has a nice colourful pattern ;-P .
     
  41. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Believe me, if that happened, we would see some snow. Quite a lot of it.
     
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  42. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Incoming !
     
  43. Xplora

    Xplora One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I predict Mr. T will be ski 'touring' at JB Plain on the 5,6 and 7th of August after his ski 'touring' at Falls Creek this Tuesday. I predict more links to Jane's automated forecasts in lieu of any prediction, more hope casts and more links to resort XC reports. I predict Mr. T will not need his $20 rock hopper Op shop skis for his next trip. I predict I will get a stay on topic after this.

    I like to read the predictions thread for the predictions but I have never commented before because I can't say anything relevant. Doesn't seem to bother some people so the I guess this years weather forum rules are a waste.
     
  44. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC has a little something on the 6th.

    And has an angle for some sort of activity on the 9th, 10th and 11th.


    GFS has pushed back and wants a system around the 10th.


    LWT now forecast to be pushed back for the 10-11th of August, so this is when the system should be expected.


    Could we get a extension or a shift of dates perhaps if we all agree, mods?
     
  45. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    http://www.janebunn.net/mt-hotham
    The automated modelling for Hot Ham including JB Plain which is situated at 1640 M ASL is now suggesting some snow will fall on Tuesday Night August 6th.
     
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  46. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Yes and you need a slow stationary high near Perth or West to allow the joy in.
     
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  47. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS maintaining a one-two combo, kicking off on the 7th. In line with yesterday’s 12Z run.
    EC focuses mainly on the latter system through the SE 8,9 &10th.


    EC Ensembles


    I think at date extension would be needed when models are in more agreement. The 8-10 August looks strong nonetheless.
     
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  49. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I’ll be a falls that weekend so will give live updates.
    Could be interesting.
     
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  50. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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