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Predictions 6th-11th August

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Jul 24, 2019.

  1. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    There could be a lot of snow men popping up in very strange places over the next few days imo
     
  2. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Fark.
    EC high res rendered.
    Wearing some big boy pants this evening
     
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  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Latest GFS (06Z) has a -34c smack bang over CBR, Sunday 10am.
    FL ~850m above Canberra
    Looking at the sounding, that's mod snow falling above 400m at times.
     
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  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    534 thickness to Kingaroy, QLD.
    FM!
    So many thongs with socks... Cannot handle.
     
  5. Dylan Kearney

    Dylan Kearney Early Days

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    I predict this area will be absolute satellite weather porn in around 12 hours. You can see, what’s further south is going to wrap up into a tight boxing glove epic
     

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  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's not often you see a warm front behind two trough features, at 40S.
    It's all moisture and instability.

    As of about about an hour ago it has undergone cyclogenesis and goes on to form the tight low entering Bass Strait tomorrow night.
    It's a unique feature, even for sat viewing.
     
  7. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    . These 3 plots begining at 10 pm.are quite alarming imo. Would suggest restricting/ cancelling driving in some areas.
     
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  8. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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  9. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tie down your cats
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Via EC, Tumbarumba (389m ASL) showing snow Satdee Morning & Sunday.
    How tall is Eureka Tower again?
     
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Higher elevations and the coast will be storm force +
     
  12. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Comparing Notes

    GFS has predicted this well at 198 hrs but it has downgraded the prediction at 54 hrs.

    The contrast is quite stark from pure lines of LWT to the localised distortions in air flow ar 54 hrs. Is that because the model complexity is less at longer range?

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  13. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Well that looks better than yesterday
     
  14. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bayswater
    Lucky to ruffle the washing
     
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  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yeh, stuck in a hole.
     
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  16. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Meanwhile at Mt D
    On
     
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  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    More model divergence.
    To compare LR with SR is to ask an adult and a kid to draw a sketch and compare.
     
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  18. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I predict next 2 days looking inclement for Canberra tradies. Circa 730- 8 am for precip tomorow imo.
     
  19. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    SES gonna have one helluva week
     
  20. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    982hPa in Bass Strait..... that's got 100cm written all over it....
    I'd be going up on Thursday lunch time before all the roads are closed on Friday.
     
  21. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah.no has -2 with moisture sat morn
     
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  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
  23. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tonight.
    AXS-R
    Gonna be big.
     
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  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tomorrow's progg AXS-R picks up the precip from the low moving onshore.
    If it's to be believed (OCF doesn't think so), but yep 60 cents in 24 hours on the MR.
    Extraordinary avi danger by Saturday, I would think.
     
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  26. dmz

    dmz More cheeeese Gromit Ski Pass: Gold

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    So is Buller going to miss out on this system like it did last night?
     
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  27. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    I think Bullershould get some
     
  28. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC Rapid 10 pm. Sensational increase in wind shear instability- add some healthy moisture and resorts should cop a flogging imo.
     
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  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking at the radar last night; Buller was just flat out unlucky.
    Buller will get it's turn tonight.
     
  30. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    FC and Hotham will crack 2 feet by midnight. That takes their minimum by Monday to 80cm I reckon, and probably closer to the 3ft/mtr
     
  31. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  32. Mogul

    Mogul One of Us

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  33. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    At this point I think they will crack the ton.
     
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  34. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Buller special on Saturday afternoon and evening into Sunday morning.

    It looks like everyone will get their time.
     
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  35. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    So do I. Unlike many previous events, the two I mentioned met or exceeded accumulation totals so far and the best is yet to come. I’m of the view we may be underestimating, rather than overestimating what is to come because it really is a rare event - sooo cold, anomalous thickness, low pressure and a decent moisture bank
     
  36. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    We might see 110-120cm if they do well over the weekend.
     
  37. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Blueys and New England = possible mayhem.
     
  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sydney atmosphere Saturday night 500mb: -34c
     
  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    SWW extending to NSW's Mid-North Coast region.
     
  40. Marquise de Kappy

    Marquise de Kappy One of Us

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    Even Mt Kaputar may see a dusting.
     
  41. Snowmaker7

    Snowmaker7 One of Us

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    Haven't seen such a broad area of sub -30 for a while
     
  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah. Likely a 1 in 10/15 year event in reference to cold pool projection.
     
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  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Considering we had our best May snowfall in 20 years. @Kletterer 's 'year of anomalies' rings true yet again.
     
  44. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Downside to that is the potentialy more difficult job ahead for Ensembles and the need to include a more recent database. Interesting times ahead.
     
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  45. Neslot

    Neslot One of Us

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    Still looking as windy as first thought? I note that hasn't been very windy in Thredbo or Perisher so far.
     
  46. Neddy

    Neddy Hard Yards

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    Bom look to have the worst of tomorrow's winds past the Vic resorts by mid-morning

     
  47. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXSR is quite special this arvos run
     
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  48. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    A lot of graupel falling today from mid morning at PV. That’s across the entire resort including ridge lines. Was building in depth quickly and sitting above about 15cms of fresh snow. Then I expect there will be fresh snow on top of that. There is our 1st risk consideration.
     
  49. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    That is falling on a 2cm crust on the leeward aspects on MR!
     
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  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, plenty of risk indicators at the moment.
     
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