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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Jul 24, 2019.
There could be a lot of snow men popping up in very strange places over the next few days imo
EC high res rendered.
Wearing some big boy pants this evening
Latest GFS (06Z) has a -34c smack bang over CBR, Sunday 10am.
FL ~850m above Canberra
Looking at the sounding, that's mod snow falling above 400m at times.
534 thickness to Kingaroy, QLD.
So many thongs with socks... Cannot handle.
I predict this area will be absolute satellite weather porn in around 12 hours. You can see, what’s further south is going to wrap up into a tight boxing glove epic
It's not often you see a warm front behind two trough features, at 40S.
It's all moisture and instability.
As of about about an hour ago it has undergone cyclogenesis and goes on to form the tight low entering Bass Strait tomorrow night.
It's a unique feature, even for sat viewing.
. These 3 plots begining at 10 pm.are quite alarming imo. Would suggest restricting/ cancelling driving in some areas.
Tie down your cats
Via EC, Tumbarumba (389m ASL) showing snow Satdee Morning & Sunday.
How tall is Eureka Tower again?
Higher elevations and the coast will be storm force +
GFS has predicted this well at 198 hrs but it has downgraded the prediction at 54 hrs.
The contrast is quite stark from pure lines of LWT to the localised distortions in air flow ar 54 hrs. Is that because the model complexity is less at longer range?
Well that looks better than yesterday
Lucky to ruffle the washing
Yeh, stuck in a hole.
Meanwhile at Mt D
More model divergence.
To compare LR with SR is to ask an adult and a kid to draw a sketch and compare.
I predict next 2 days looking inclement for Canberra tradies. Circa 730- 8 am for precip tomorow imo.
SES gonna have one helluva week
982hPa in Bass Strait..... that's got 100cm written all over it....
I'd be going up on Thursday lunch time before all the roads are closed on Friday.
Yeah.no has -2 with moisture sat morn
Stay on topic.
Ms. Bunn's automated modelling for resorts such as Lake Mtn. looks more modest now. Almost within the realms of the resort being able to cope .
Gonna be big.
Tomorrow's progg AXS-R picks up the precip from the low moving onshore.
If it's to be believed (OCF doesn't think so), but yep 60 cents in 24 hours on the MR.
Extraordinary avi danger by Saturday, I would think.
So is Buller going to miss out on this system like it did last night?
I think Bullershould get some
EC Rapid 10 pm. Sensational increase in wind shear instability- add some healthy moisture and resorts should cop a flogging imo.
Looking at the radar last night; Buller was just flat out unlucky.
Buller will get it's turn tonight.
FC and Hotham will crack 2 feet by midnight. That takes their minimum by Monday to 80cm I reckon, and probably closer to the 3ft/mtr
BOM all in at the Bo.
At this point I think they will crack the ton.
Buller special on Saturday afternoon and evening into Sunday morning.
It looks like everyone will get their time.
So do I. Unlike many previous events, the two I mentioned met or exceeded accumulation totals so far and the best is yet to come. I’m of the view we may be underestimating, rather than overestimating what is to come because it really is a rare event - sooo cold, anomalous thickness, low pressure and a decent moisture bank
We might see 110-120cm if they do well over the weekend.
Blueys and New England = possible mayhem.
Sydney atmosphere Saturday night 500mb: -34c
SWW extending to NSW's Mid-North Coast region.
Even Mt Kaputar may see a dusting.
Haven't seen such a broad area of sub -30 for a while
Yeah. Likely a 1 in 10/15 year event in reference to cold pool projection.
Considering we had our best May snowfall in 20 years. @Kletterer 's 'year of anomalies' rings true yet again.
Downside to that is the potentialy more difficult job ahead for Ensembles and the need to include a more recent database. Interesting times ahead.
Still looking as windy as first thought? I note that hasn't been very windy in Thredbo or Perisher so far.
Bom look to have the worst of tomorrow's winds past the Vic resorts by mid-morning
AXSR is quite special this arvos run
A lot of graupel falling today from mid morning at PV. That’s across the entire resort including ridge lines. Was building in depth quickly and sitting above about 15cms of fresh snow. Then I expect there will be fresh snow on top of that. There is our 1st risk consideration.
That is falling on a 2cm crust on the leeward aspects on MR!
Yeah, plenty of risk indicators at the moment.