Predictions 6th-11th August

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Jul 24, 2019.

  1. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 1999
    Messages:
    37,013
    Likes Received:
    317
    AXSr

    YUM
    GFS good too
     
    The Plowking likes this.
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,921
    Likes Received:
    21,682
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    AXS-R stacking it on for a Baw Baw, Buller Special on Sundee.
     
  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,921
    Likes Received:
    21,682
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    I reckon Vic BoM JUST MIGHT make mention this arvo RE: snow above 400m Fri/Sat (down from 500m).
     
  4. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2010
    Messages:
    923
    Likes Received:
    451
    Another bite at the cherry sat night into Sunday for my area on that chart pow?
     
  5. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2010
    Messages:
    923
    Likes Received:
    451
    Hope your right on this prediction pow
     
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,921
    Likes Received:
    21,682
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Yep where not in the Tas rain shadow.
    But it's frigid cold.
     
    Claude Cat and doogasnow like this.
  7. Neslot

    Neslot One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2002
    Messages:
    1,840
    Likes Received:
    68
    Location:
    Sydney, AUS, NSW
    Slight downgrade on BOMs totals for Thredbo but still pretty solid
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,921
    Likes Received:
    21,682
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    They've stayed with 500m, but certainly a wintery mix chance below that in Vic districts IMO.
     
    Claude Cat, Karicta and doogasnow like this.
  9. Boonie

    Boonie Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2003
    Messages:
    813
    Likes Received:
    16
    Location:
    Mt Beauty
    Down to 400m on Saturday now according to Vic BOM. Nice call!
     
  10. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2010
    Messages:
    923
    Likes Received:
    451
    Still could change, but now it’s friday/Saturday and Sunday all snow to 500m!! Lol surely some pretty good flurries down to at least 400m ?
     
  11. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2010
    Messages:
    923
    Likes Received:
    451
    Yep the north east District of vic is the first cab off the rank to drop level to 400m.
    Not sure how they only drop in one district? Lol
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,921
    Likes Received:
    21,682
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,921
    Likes Received:
    21,682
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Argh yep. Nice find.
    Orographic lifting & instability in Vic's NE will influence it lower.
     
    doogasnow likes this.
  14. Tightening and looks on track. Thinking will go sub 980mb-
    sat_20190808_0630_animation.gif
     
    Jellybeans, tot, h2oskier and 17 others like this.
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,921
    Likes Received:
    21,682
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    I've been waiting for BoM charts to update to look for 980 hPa!
    Gotta be close to a bomb.
     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,921
    Likes Received:
    21,682
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Front humming along at 50 knots. FM, she's fighting for it.
     
    Mister Tee on XC Skis likes this.
  17. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 27, 2004
    Messages:
    28,952
    Likes Received:
    25,889
    Location:
    in the cupboard covered in dust


    It's beautiful
     
    Froff Life, h2oskier, skiflat and 6 others like this.
  18. toughnut

    toughnut Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 18, 2008
    Messages:
    206
    Likes Received:
    52
    Location:
    Sydney
    Obvs from BOM at Perisher Valley has 25mm fallen in the gauge since midnight last night
     
    Ret-ro, skiflat and POW_hungry like this.
  19. toughnut

    toughnut Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 18, 2008
    Messages:
    206
    Likes Received:
    52
    Location:
    Sydney
    Oops sorry mods, that should have gone in Obs thread, move if more appropriate
     
  20. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

    Joined:
    May 4, 2010
    Messages:
    677
    Likes Received:
    483
    Location:
    Helensburgh
    It doesn't show what is going to fall tonight so pretty decent IMO
     
    skiflat, toughnut and POW_hungry like this.
  21. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,480
    Likes Received:
    16,657
    Location:
    Canberra
    24 hours of Power coming up.
     
  22. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2013
    Messages:
    1,623
    Likes Received:
    1,583
    Location:
    Melb - DPlain
    The Beast
     
    skiflat likes this.
  23. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,480
    Likes Received:
    16,657
    Location:
    Canberra
    EC 7am Friday. Negotiating the drive over Dainers Gap to Perisher may be an issue. GAR from Harrietville also . Be prepared for very adverse conditions and consider alternatives.
     
  24. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2011
    Messages:
    6,065
    Likes Received:
    4,024
    I don’t recall anything like the next 24 hours since the forecasting models became what they are now (for sheer intensity of storm)...
     
  25. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2015
    Messages:
    5,654
    Likes Received:
    5,051
    Location:
    Melbourne
    It is still very dry, mild and still here in NE Melb. .In fact the only beast I have seen this evening is my cat.
     
    skiflat, Claude Cat and piolet like this.
  26. bugeater

    bugeater Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Sep 20, 2017
    Messages:
    35
    Likes Received:
    49
    I like the 0.1 cm of snow this is predicting for the Melbourne CBD. I'll believe it if I see it.

     
  27. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2015
    Messages:
    5,654
    Likes Received:
    5,051
    Location:
    Melbourne
    I will believe 20 cms on the Circuit road at Mt. Stirling when I see it on the TBJ web cam. It is mountain bike material at present up there.
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  28. rizou

    rizou Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2017
    Messages:
    7
    Likes Received:
    0
    Hi guys! Posted my question earlier in the observation instead of here!

    Can someone predict if the fresh snow may freeze over and turn into ice or will it stay "powdery" over the next few days?

    I'm planning to get up there around Monday or Tuesday when the weather looks friendlier for non-polar bear creatures but wondering if I'd have missed the good snow by then?
     
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,921
    Likes Received:
    21,682
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Not due for a freeze/thaw cycle until maybe Tuesday/Wednesday. Limited solar impacts until Monday too.
    So you’re good.
     
    piolet, Kletterer and Karicta like this.
  30. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2015
    Messages:
    5,654
    Likes Received:
    5,051
    Location:
    Melbourne
    My guess is that the new snow will still be nice to ski on from Mon. til Wed. . That is when I will be in the D.P. - Hot Ham area myself.
     
  31. rizou

    rizou Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2017
    Messages:
    7
    Likes Received:
    0
    Thank you so much! Let's make some turns!
     
  32. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,480
    Likes Received:
    16,657
    Location:
    Canberra
    EC for Monday arvo at circa 1500 mtrs is still quite cool.
     
    SMSkier, POW_hungry and WarrandyteWX like this.
  33. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2015
    Messages:
    5,654
    Likes Received:
    5,051
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Drive up via Omeo.
    The HarrietVille is route is now closed.
    Currently fitting chains to 2WD on the Omeo approach from 182 marker.
     
    WarrandyteWX likes this.
  34. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2000
    Messages:
    10,555
    Likes Received:
    489
    Location:
    Jimi on Weatherzone. Killara, Sydney
    How are we looking against the predicted totals today, given the direction seems to be more SW? Thredbo has 35-50mm in the forecast but I wouldn't think that'd be likely with the precip coming from the SW (though I note the winds are more WNW)
     
  35. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2015
    Messages:
    5,654
    Likes Received:
    5,051
    Location:
    Melbourne
    I have predicted 60 cms at JB Plain by Monday . Dinner Plain( about 2-3 km away from J. B. Plain ) have reported 40 cms so far. Snowfalls could exceed my prediction.
     
  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,921
    Likes Received:
    21,682
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Another 10-15cm today and tonight for Thredbo/Perisher IMO.
     
    skiflat and Trail Blazer like this.
  37. toughnut

    toughnut Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 18, 2008
    Messages:
    206
    Likes Received:
    52
    Location:
    Sydney
    and then Sat and Sunday Pow?
     
  38. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,480
    Likes Received:
    16,657
    Location:
    Canberra
    Vic. has better moisture content but less favourable shear characteristics. NSW has nice Deep Layer Shear but its creeping North later. Concur with POW for Thredbo/ Perisher.
     
  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,921
    Likes Received:
    21,682
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    For NSW, 15-20cm throughout tomorrow/tomorrow eve.
    5-10cm for Sunday IMO.
     
    Edgecrusher and toughnut like this.
  40. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2000
    Messages:
    10,555
    Likes Received:
    489
    Location:
    Jimi on Weatherzone. Killara, Sydney
    Bit of a shame. Was hoping for more of the same today
     
  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,921
    Likes Received:
    21,682
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Last night was always going to be the high intensity falls. Thereafter is the constant, gradual accumulation (little falls over long time frame).
     
    DiscoStuAU, piolet, Kletterer and 2 others like this.
  42. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    16,480
    Likes Received:
    16,657
    Location:
    Canberra
    10 am Sat to 10 am Sunday on EC looks not too shabby imo.
     
  43. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2003
    Messages:
    2,015
    Likes Received:
    575
    Location:
    Sydney
    That still has Perisher/Thredbo/CP cracking 1m, probably fairly easily and virtually all of it at nice cold temps and good snow quality improving through the event. 1m is excellent, 1m in a cold core system where the majority of it will be good quality snow is simply brilliant. Hhmm it is my wife's turn to take the kids up for Sunday ski school program, perhaps we need a babysitter for our 2 year old twins for the day!
     
    jonathanc, skiingtk and piolet like this.
  44. multiple_sarcasm

    multiple_sarcasm Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Mar 23, 2010
    Messages:
    19
    Likes Received:
    0
    How windy is it likely to be over the weekend? Tossing up a Sunday trip but will hold fire if wind hold is likely.
     
  45. iagreewithhim

    iagreewithhim One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Sep 3, 2001
    Messages:
    1,722
    Likes Received:
    2,013
    Location:
    A very long way from the snow
    TBH, how much we get from now on (at Thredbo at least) is irrelevant. Everything is covered.
     
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,921
    Likes Received:
    21,682
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Sunday has an easing trend, so it will start with winds 20-30 knots, but easing to 20-25 knots into the arvo.
     
  47. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer Addicted

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2015
    Messages:
    244
    Likes Received:
    214
    SA might be getting some love finally.

    BOM have forecast possible snow flurries on the higher peaks of the Mount Lofty Ranges before sunrise (Saturday):nerd:
     
  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,921
    Likes Received:
    21,682
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    As noted and expected here.;)
     
    piolet, Winterwolf and Adelaidometer like this.
  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,921
    Likes Received:
    21,682
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    IMO should see snowfalls on the top of Lofty (above 600m) from around 9:30pm through to mid-morning tomorrow.
     
    #1099 POW_hungry, Aug 9, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 9, 2019
    Adelaidometer and Forged_metal73 like this.
  50. Forged_metal73

    Forged_metal73 First Runs

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2019
    Messages:
    7
    Likes Received:
    19
    Its already 2.8 C at Mt Lofty, so very close to snowing already. Enough for sleet at least. BOM are forecasting a precipitation peak at about 3 am so that would be good timing for a chase.
     
    Adelaidometer likes this.