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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Jul 24, 2019.
GFS good too
AXS-R stacking it on for a Baw Baw, Buller Special on Sundee.
I reckon Vic BoM JUST MIGHT make mention this arvo RE: snow above 400m Fri/Sat (down from 500m).
Another bite at the cherry sat night into Sunday for my area on that chart pow?
Hope your right on this prediction pow
Yep where not in the Tas rain shadow.
But it's frigid cold.
Slight downgrade on BOMs totals for Thredbo but still pretty solid
They've stayed with 500m, but certainly a wintery mix chance below that in Vic districts IMO.
Down to 400m on Saturday now according to Vic BOM. Nice call!
Still could change, but now it’s friday/Saturday and Sunday all snow to 500m!! Lol surely some pretty good flurries down to at least 400m ?
Yep the north east District of vic is the first cab off the rank to drop level to 400m.
Not sure how they only drop in one district? Lol
Looks like 500m, unless I am missing something. Still think they'll go for it Sat/Sun
Argh yep. Nice find.
Orographic lifting & instability in Vic's NE will influence it lower.
Tightening and looks on track. Thinking will go sub 980mb-
I've been waiting for BoM charts to update to look for 980 hPa!
Gotta be close to a bomb.
Front humming along at 50 knots. FM, she's fighting for it.
Obvs from BOM at Perisher Valley has 25mm fallen in the gauge since midnight last night
Oops sorry mods, that should have gone in Obs thread, move if more appropriate
It doesn't show what is going to fall tonight so pretty decent IMO
24 hours of Power coming up.
EC 7am Friday. Negotiating the drive over Dainers Gap to Perisher may be an issue. GAR from Harrietville also . Be prepared for very adverse conditions and consider alternatives.
I don’t recall anything like the next 24 hours since the forecasting models became what they are now (for sheer intensity of storm)...
It is still very dry, mild and still here in NE Melb. .In fact the only beast I have seen this evening is my cat.
I like the 0.1 cm of snow this is predicting for the Melbourne CBD. I'll believe it if I see it.
I will believe 20 cms on the Circuit road at Mt. Stirling when I see it on the TBJ web cam. It is mountain bike material at present up there.
Hi guys! Posted my question earlier in the observation instead of here!
Can someone predict if the fresh snow may freeze over and turn into ice or will it stay "powdery" over the next few days?
I'm planning to get up there around Monday or Tuesday when the weather looks friendlier for non-polar bear creatures but wondering if I'd have missed the good snow by then?
Not due for a freeze/thaw cycle until maybe Tuesday/Wednesday. Limited solar impacts until Monday too.
So you’re good.
My guess is that the new snow will still be nice to ski on from Mon. til Wed. . That is when I will be in the D.P. - Hot Ham area myself.
Thank you so much! Let's make some turns!
EC for Monday arvo at circa 1500 mtrs is still quite cool.
Drive up via Omeo.
The HarrietVille is route is now closed.
Currently fitting chains to 2WD on the Omeo approach from 182 marker.
How are we looking against the predicted totals today, given the direction seems to be more SW? Thredbo has 35-50mm in the forecast but I wouldn't think that'd be likely with the precip coming from the SW (though I note the winds are more WNW)
I have predicted 60 cms at JB Plain by Monday . Dinner Plain( about 2-3 km away from J. B. Plain ) have reported 40 cms so far. Snowfalls could exceed my prediction.
Another 10-15cm today and tonight for Thredbo/Perisher IMO.
and then Sat and Sunday Pow?
Vic. has better moisture content but less favourable shear characteristics. NSW has nice Deep Layer Shear but its creeping North later. Concur with POW for Thredbo/ Perisher.
For NSW, 15-20cm throughout tomorrow/tomorrow eve.
5-10cm for Sunday IMO.
Bit of a shame. Was hoping for more of the same today
Last night was always going to be the high intensity falls. Thereafter is the constant, gradual accumulation (little falls over long time frame).
10 am Sat to 10 am Sunday on EC looks not too shabby imo.
That still has Perisher/Thredbo/CP cracking 1m, probably fairly easily and virtually all of it at nice cold temps and good snow quality improving through the event. 1m is excellent, 1m in a cold core system where the majority of it will be good quality snow is simply brilliant. Hhmm it is my wife's turn to take the kids up for Sunday ski school program, perhaps we need a babysitter for our 2 year old twins for the day!
How windy is it likely to be over the weekend? Tossing up a Sunday trip but will hold fire if wind hold is likely.
TBH, how much we get from now on (at Thredbo at least) is irrelevant. Everything is covered.
Sunday has an easing trend, so it will start with winds 20-30 knots, but easing to 20-25 knots into the arvo.
SA might be getting some love finally.
BOM have forecast possible snow flurries on the higher peaks of the Mount Lofty Ranges before sunrise (Saturday)
As noted and expected here.
IMO should see snowfalls on the top of Lofty (above 600m) from around 9:30pm through to mid-morning tomorrow.
Its already 2.8 C at Mt Lofty, so very close to snowing already. Enough for sleet at least. BOM are forecasting a precipitation peak at about 3 am so that would be good timing for a chase.