Predictions 6th-11th August

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Jul 24, 2019.

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  1. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Your wife mentioned somewhere that you would be doing the Thredbo duty on Sunday :rolleyes:
     
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  2. Forged_metal73

    Forged_metal73 First Runs

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    What happens after 9:30 pm to make it more likely to snow?
     
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  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Marginal until upper level temps ramp up.
    They're on their way (9:30pm below). The lower atmosphere will remain similar so given it's -2C/-3C at ~1400m, and FL ~1000m it might snow but it'll be wet/wintry mix until the upper level cold pool moves in ~6pm (below). You'll want sub -25C @ 500mb to see genuine snow fall to around 600m (when Freeze Level is ~1000m) IMO.
     
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  4. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Pow - do u think I’ll see any more flurries in my area? Or was that the best chance for me to see something this arvo?
     
  5. Rat trap bindings

    Rat trap bindings One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I’m predicting that it will be interesting to watch the Canberra footy tonight as with the temp dropping and a few shower trains running through it could be another first for a AFL game in snow?
     
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Should be getting close to seeing snow above 550m, at the moment, for the Strzeleckis, I'd say.
    Right through until 4am tomorrow, then another chance Sunday.
     
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  7. cqen2l

    cqen2l Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Will be watching with interest.
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Would come through final QTR if it was to happen IMO.
    10pm is the sweet spot for flurries/wintery mix to 600m in the area.

    Problem is... not much moisture in the lee of the Brindies.
     
  9. Forged_metal73

    Forged_metal73 First Runs

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    Is that a band of snow I see heading towards Canberra on the radar?
     
  10. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snowflakes in the forecast again..around 3am.
     
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  11. Rat trap bindings

    Rat trap bindings One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hey POW, question does ‘feels like’ temp have a bearing? So with wind chill does that lower the formation of snow?
     
  12. Rat trap bindings

    Rat trap bindings One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    ITS SNOWING IN CBR!
     
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  13. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mostly for my froth, but also interest for our party heading to thredbo from Sydney on Sunday... What's going to be falling, where?
     
  14. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm not seeing a whole lot more in this system for Hotham/Falls
     
  15. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks to come in around 4pm again for NSW alps
     
  16. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Might be Buller's turn today going by the radar?
     
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  17. zac150

    zac150 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lots of snow on the ranges in Canberra and in a lot of places not normally seen, well to the north of Coree looks like a good cover. Snow also looks like it extends to the nearer ranges as well.
     
  18. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Saved the best til last in terms of low level snow with bom dropping the snow level to 400m for all of southern vic for later tonight and first thing Tommoz morning.
     
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  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think there’s a good chance of some reported snowfalls in Melbourne suburbs tomorrow morning IMO.
    -5C @850mb says to me just add some instability and you could see (wintery mix) falls as low as 200-300m ASL.
     
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  20. Winterwolf

    Winterwolf Hard Yards

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    Snow in the southern highlands forecast to 700m too, hoping we score late tomorrow
     
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  21. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Yeah it looks very cold! Hopefully there’s enough shower activity pushing through to put a bit of a cover on the ground.
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Probably won’t be settling much below 5/600m
     
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I predict an epic sunset in Sydney shortly.
     
  24. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Insta worth?

    Not going to happen in Wollongong.
    Virga and scud rolling over
     
  25. Mark F

    Mark F Hard Yards

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    Snowy games have occurred before in Canberra. Pity we are not playing the Cowboys or Broncos.
     
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  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Seen better aye.
     
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  27. Wavey

    Wavey One of Us

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    Certainly quite nice still.
     
  28. Winterwolf

    Winterwolf Hard Yards

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    Interesting blob of moisture heading from Canberra towards Goulburn and the Highlands, with temps looking good.
     
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  29. dmz

    dmz More cheeeese Gromit Ski Pass: Gold

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    For us history buffs, what does this system compare to in the past? Is it a 2,5 10 year thing?
     
  30. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear One of Us

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    Too old too remember but it is looking awesome !!! This was 1977 at Baw Baw
     
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  31. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear One of Us

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  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    1 in 10-15 year event IMO.
    Whilst late May’s falls were a 1 in 20 year event.

    Not bhed, considering they form two of the 3 ‘major falls’ this season.
     
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  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Damn 5 cents off...
     
  34. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    snowstake says 69
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    All lies they say.
     
  36. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perisher was running a comp on insta for guess the total amount
    I put down 113cm
    Denied by snow stake and its poor design
     
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  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I saw that. Northerly aspect 'aint a easy aspect to guess.
    EDIT: meant it ain't 'easy' aspect to guess.
     
  38. INDI

    INDI Hard Yards

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    Was working in Smiggs in 1995 - first half of August great, second half absolutely horrendous - multiple days of 10 - 12'C, remember getting to 32'C in Sydney..........IN AUGUST. The snow level was dropping before your eyes.
    Gotta say that July 1995 was insane - snowed every day and stayed below freezing the whole month
     
    #1138 INDI, May 4, 2020
    Last edited: May 4, 2020
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  39. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I recall the last week or so of August 95’ went nuts and got into the 20s. Not sure if I’ve season a winter (esp a good one!) go off the boil so fast since. Maybe 1 or 2 slower meltdowns?
     
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  40. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    That’s Melbourne reached the 20s (max) BTW. Not the skifields!!
     
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