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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Majikthise, Jun 25, 2018.
Looks like folk are onto it...
Lets ride this one in.
GFS on the gear!
Very interested in this one, heading to falls that weekend
I am keen to play with this. Ensembles like it, as CC showed Determs are starting to hook on to this. Interesting, has the opportunity to be pretty big. And smack in the middle in my stint at Buller
Must be good gear.
best forget about that for a bit. before you start seeing things that aren't gonna happen.
By this point everyone will be praying pretty hard for something, as the current long range looks bleak.....but we all know things can change within a few days.....one to keep an eye on
as long as you know the low long term probability, and check all of the models, etc. I try not to let the bias get ahead of me.
You and those here with the more in depth knowledge do a pretty good job. It’s the noobs and novices and punters among us, myself included, who can tend read into things and see what they want to see rather than what is realistic.
I find it much easier to look at potential systems knowing full well I won’t be around for them. Far easier to have a balanced and pragmatic view.
Hard to not know if you are going, unless on the spot trips are your thing It's all about education IMO.
last minute FTW... If you can do it. I'm not really in that position either.
Yep reading hopecasts gets a little tiring.....
LWT has looked stellar for a week or two now. I'd be very surprised if there's nothing in the 2-6 July date range.
Sorry, not a prediction post. Heading up to Falls for this weekend, arriving on the Friday lunchtime. Will be watching this closely.
Surely the models will change 10 times as we get closer to the weekend?
You see education here all the time, yourself, CC, POW, everyone else here... it's a group effort IMO. Complete One man bands lead to self centrism, believe me I have seen what that does to people...
Yes they will. But as there are several indicators, there is a feeling that something will happen, perhaps something big.
This thread is about the following weekend (6th and 7th) are you talking about this weekend?
several indicators including me not being there owing to work commitments... my availability is as good a predictive tool as any model...
No. Talking about the weekend of Saturday 7th to Sunday 8th. We're heading up around lunchtime on the Friday, leaving Sunday.
Stay on topic.
Trying. Its thick. Almost 100 hrs of duration should set up the winter.
I was erring on the end of that period as more likely
Mod Note: If you want to discuss the rainmaggedon that on GFS has on the 2nd of July, do it in the BBQ thread.
Yep, agreed. Trough will affect Southern WA near the start (peaking ~2nd/3rd) of that range so it’s possible to see models throw up ‘surprise’ short waves in the date range though.
Monster node. Hope it’s not peaking too early.
figure it will peak wherever the MJO is.
What zone are we in/best for us?
5 or 6
Remember the LWT chart is a little bit different to the normal 500mb charts.
GFS + EC Determ both agree on something approaching the mainland on the 6-7 July period. CMC much less so. I can work with that.
Sounds like someone who is normally seen in the cyclone threads.
Stay on topic
Don't normally post in a prediction thread. I deserved that.
*Where the MJO signal has strength.
GEFS says we don't even get a look in.
Whilst EC puts the ball back in our court around the 3-5 July (below). BoM kinda agrees with this track but a much weaker amplitude. Lots of uncertainty on the MJO factors IMO.
EC ensembles a bit more positive for us though no?
GFS persisting with lake Perisher.
Second short wave on the 8th looks like it might have some good punch on EC 12z this morning, with the 6th system peaking over SW WA
yeah my bad, should be over in the other thread.
Not bad at all.
GEFS and GEPS agree too (GFS and CMC ensembles).
do agree with your thoughts tho.
It is not quite alarm bells, for another day or so , and GFS.....
But at this stage might push back my season starters till 2nd half of the week rather than the beginning..
Looking a little clippery this morning. Less ridgey through WA would be better.
Sorry another amateur hour Q: is that top chart the probabilities of x cm falling per day around the forecast days (6-10 July).
It looks like falls of 15-20 cm per day are likely. Yes?
crap ridge. also notice second low behind the first.
is that the one you're banking on?
@POW_hungry suggested this morning the 1st low is peaking over WA and sliding, is that paving the way for the 2nd low to deliver?
Too far out to tell. I'd expect the ridge to strengthen over the continent before it gives the second wave a chance.
Anyone's guess there.
Certainly looks to peak early.
It shows the snow depth around Perisher village, so it shows an increase in the snow depth in inches. Not probabilities sorry.