Predictions 6th-9th July

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Majikthise, Jun 25, 2018.

  1. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like folk are onto it...
    Lets ride this one in.
     
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  2. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  3. Big_Red_60

    Big_Red_60 Addicted

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    GFS on the gear!
    [​IMG]
     
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  4. phrozen

    phrozen Hard Yards

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    Very interested in this one, heading to falls that weekend :D
     
  5. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    I am keen to play with this. Ensembles like it, as CC showed Determs are starting to hook on to this. Interesting, has the opportunity to be pretty big. And smack in the middle in my stint at Buller :D
     
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  6. Armitage_Shanks

    Armitage_Shanks Hard Yards

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    Must be good gear.
     
  7. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    best forget about that for a bit. before you start seeing things that aren't gonna happen.
     
  8. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    By this point everyone will be praying pretty hard for something, as the current long range looks bleak.....but we all know things can change within a few days.....one to keep an eye on
     
  9. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    as long as you know the low long term probability, and check all of the models, etc. I try not to let the bias get ahead of me.
     
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  10. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    You and those here with the more in depth knowledge do a pretty good job. It’s the noobs and novices and punters among us, myself included, who can tend read into things and see what they want to see rather than what is realistic.
    I find it much easier to look at potential systems knowing full well I won’t be around for them. Far easier to have a balanced and pragmatic view.
     
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  11. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hard to not know if you are going, unless on the spot trips are your thing ;) It's all about education IMO.
     
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  12. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    last minute FTW... If you can do it. I'm not really in that position either.
     
  13. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep reading hopecasts gets a little tiring.....
     
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  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    LWT has looked stellar for a week or two now. I'd be very surprised if there's nothing in the 2-6 July date range.
     
  15. sdsdc

    sdsdc Hard Yards

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    Sorry, not a prediction post. Heading up to Falls for this weekend, arriving on the Friday lunchtime. Will be watching this closely.

    Surely the models will change 10 times as we get closer to the weekend?
     
  16. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    You see education here all the time, yourself, CC, POW, everyone else here... it's a group effort IMO. Complete One man bands lead to self centrism, believe me I have seen what that does to people...
     
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  17. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes they will. But as there are several indicators, there is a feeling that something will happen, perhaps something big.
     
  18. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    This thread is about the following weekend (6th and 7th) are you talking about this weekend?
     
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  19. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    several indicators including me not being there owing to work commitments... my availability is as good a predictive tool as any model... LOL
     
  20. sdsdc

    sdsdc Hard Yards

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    No. Talking about the weekend of Saturday 7th to Sunday 8th. We're heading up around lunchtime on the Friday, leaving Sunday.
     
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  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
  22. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Trying. Its thick. Almost 100 hrs of duration should set up the winter.

    [​IMG]
     
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  23. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I was erring on the end of that period as more likely
     
  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Mod Note: If you want to discuss the rainmaggedon that on GFS has on the 2nd of July, do it in the BBQ thread.
     
  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, agreed. Trough will affect Southern WA near the start (peaking ~2nd/3rd) of that range so it’s possible to see models throw up ‘surprise’ short waves in the date range though.
    [​IMG]
     
  26. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Monster node. Hope it’s not peaking too early.
     
  27. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    figure it will peak wherever the MJO is.
     
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  28. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    What zone are we in/best for us?
     
  29. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  30. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  31. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Remember the LWT chart is a little bit different to the normal 500mb charts.
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  33. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS + EC Determ both agree on something approaching the mainland on the 6-7 July period. CMC much less so. I can work with that.
     
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  34. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sounds like someone who is normally seen in the cyclone threads.
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  36. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    Don't normally post in a prediction thread. I deserved that.
     
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  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    *Where the MJO signal has strength.

    GEFS says we don't even get a look in.
    [​IMG]
    Whilst EC puts the ball back in our court around the 3-5 July (below). BoM kinda agrees with this track but a much weaker amplitude. Lots of uncertainty on the MJO factors IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
  38. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC ensembles a bit more positive for us though no?
     
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  39. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS persisting with lake Perisher.
     
  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Second short wave on the 8th looks like it might have some good punch on EC 12z this morning, with the 6th system peaking over SW WA
     
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  41. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    yeah my bad, should be over in the other thread.
     
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  42. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    EPS 12z

    Not bad at all.

    GEFS and GEPS agree too (GFS and CMC ensembles).



     
  43. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    do agree with your thoughts tho.
    It is not quite alarm bells, for another day or so , and GFS.....
    But at this stage might push back my season starters till 2nd half of the week rather than the beginning..
     
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  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking a little clippery this morning. Less ridgey through WA would be better.
     
  45. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    RIIIIIIIIDGE!
     
  46. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

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    Sorry another amateur hour Q: is that top chart the probabilities of x cm falling per day around the forecast days (6-10 July).

    It looks like falls of 15-20 cm per day are likely. Yes?
     
  47. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    crap ridge. also notice second low behind the first.
     
  48. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    is that the one you're banking on?
    @POW_hungry suggested this morning the 1st low is peaking over WA and sliding, is that paving the way for the 2nd low to deliver?
     
  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Too far out to tell. I'd expect the ridge to strengthen over the continent before it gives the second wave a chance.
    Anyone's guess there.

    Certainly looks to peak early.
    [​IMG]
     
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  50. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    It shows the snow depth around Perisher village, so it shows an increase in the snow depth in inches. Not probabilities sorry.