Predictions 6th-9th July

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Majikthise, Jun 25, 2018.

  1. Chaeron

    Chaeron One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    A time series for the ENTIRE season ... that WOULD be extremely interesting...
     
  2. Mitchell Pearce

    Mitchell Pearce One of Us

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    Bullocks Flat sits at 1134m. Do people think it will be snowing there on Sat morning when the School holiday crowd arrive?
     
  3. Ted Harper

    Ted Harper One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Problem isn’t usually Bullocks Flat itself, but up and down Bimblegumbie Hill (is that the right name?) before you get to it.
     
  4. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  5. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    When they arrive.. .no.
    It will be later
     
  6. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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  7. Chaeron

    Chaeron One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  8. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Not liking this system for Buller. Hopefully net gain.

    Bit of a downgrade this morning. Bloody warm in Melb, roll on Saturday!!
     
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  9. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Abolish Monday mornings and Friday afternoons...
     
  10. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Love your work. Question - where do you get the BOM forecast figures? Are they total precip for the period or specifically the amount forecast to fall as snow above say 1400m?
     
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  11. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thanks :thumbs: From the Perisher BOM forecast. Total precip for period.

    All the figures are based on Perisher's numbers where available (EC, GFS, AXS, BOM, Frog). The rest are general Australian Alps forecasts.
     
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  12. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Cool - I think that upper range might be too high then, as it includes some precip that's forecast to fall as rain?
     
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  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    So many variables. Fantastic concept by @Jellybeans1000 but the sheer range of variables is difficult to manage in such a range of forecast sources.
     
  14. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's definitely right, the upper range would certainly contain rain. Unfortunately the BOM doesn't specifically tell us what is snow and what is rain, and like POW said, with all the different variables, it's difficult to know where to put the line. Same with all of the models. The "commercial" forecasters give exact numbers, but who knows what goes into them.

    If the BOM gave us an hourly or 3 hourly breakdown, like yr.no does, it would be easier to single out what is rain and what is not. But we just have to work with what we have got. I'll see if I can work out that line in the next table for the BOM, but it's probably fraught with error.

    I admit the reality of the concept has various failings, without exact numbers, where the rain/snow line is, etc, etc. Data is not very linear and ignores many variables in the way it is displayed. It's really a simplistic table showing the general "thoughts" of the models, the Bureau and the various other forecasters outside of this space for people to get a sense of where the period is headed. It's really up to the weather gurus to decipher the information to come up with a more proper prediction.

    It's designed to compare compare the forecasts in a general sense and get people out of the GFS or "favourite weather site" bubble. Not provide a local or mesoscale forecast that can be relied upon. As said above, no one can make this concept perfect, it's very complex with all the variables, time issues, etc. But I think I have had a good hard crack at it at least

    Feedback always ends up with a better forecast though, so thanks :)
     
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  15. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    The table is a great reference to work off.

    Whats up with BOM's Access R, seems to be showing only up to 48 hrs.

    CAn anyone else post Axs R Charts

    [​IMG]
     
  16. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Will update.
     
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  17. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bom does though?
    On its meteograms?
     
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  18. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    That 72hr AXS R chart i posted above has 30-40mm showing up over NSW Alps. Like. And most of it piles on saturday afternoon.
     
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  19. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pretty confident Yr no just pulls the 3 hourly data off the AXS R model output.
     
  20. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Had a look at ADFD, and adjusted BOM figures accordingly.
     
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  21. Kopite

    Kopite One of Us

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    Yr.no for the winner please.
     
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    For where are you getting the EC / yr.no numbers?
    I'd say yr.no is showing 20cm for Hotham and 15cm for Buller?
     
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  23. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    That would be highly odd considering its run from
    The Norwegian Meteorological Institute
    Postboks 43 Blindern
    0313 OSLO
    Phone: +47 22 96 30 00
     
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  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Misplaced confidence !
    It uses the output of EC.
     
  25. Sno Sno SNO

    Sno Sno SNO Hard Yards

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    Predicting early rain for the system based on what i am feeling in Adelaide at the moment. Whilst i wouldn't say warm, there is a distinct lack of coldness, but plenty of moisture in the air. Eagerly waiting the cold blast later today.
     
  26. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep.no app saying snow from ~3-4am tonight for Hotham (Obviously top) and defs more than 20cm. 20cm to bottom elevation and double that at 1700m and above?
     
  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    The Hotham numbers are for 1830m.
    There’s no way those numbers translate for most of the resort.
    Hell, even Hotham don’t measure snow depth at the top of the mountain.
     
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  28. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Agreed. But the numbers are “correct” for where the location is listed on yr.no.
     
  29. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ivo's hill ;) All of the above.
     
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  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Ok, doing the calculation for the Hotham Alpine resort (1691m), from the hour it gets to 0C, I get 28cm from yr.no.
     
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  31. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I would have loved to have been able to buy it a while ago.
     
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  32. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Be a good spot for riding.
     
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  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    And doing using the same method I get 35cm for Perisher Village.
     
  34. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sorry for OT @Claude Cat

    Looking at the radar, there is a fair bit of moisture ahead of the cold air, will the cold air catch up while there is still a fair bit of moisture left? I like the look f it in the Bight.
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    There's going to be rain ahead of the cold, not much doubt about that. IMO
    It won't catch up, it's a fairly typical cold front where the rain develops just ahead of the moving cold air. That's pretty normal.
     
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  36. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    The Jetstream looks a bit ominous early Friday Morning, and I would not be surprised by the amount of rainfall. But optimism is a funny thing.

    [​IMG]
     
  37. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perisher yesterday when I made the table. Downgraded overnight. I just fixed the BOM section.
     
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  38. Chondro

    Chondro One of Us

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    Leaving for falls in a couple of hours.
    It’s pretty damn warm here in mildura tho.
     
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO as I said a day or two ago. Take your 30cm and be happy with it. ;)
     
  40. cyclopath

    cyclopath Hard Yards

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    Gonna be up the Blue Mountains over the weekend - I know MetEye says some snow up around Oberon, do any wise heads think any would / could extend Mt Vic way??
     
  41. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Temperatures still rediculousrhere at Island Bend (just down from Guthega for newcomers) at 11.1 degrees. Winds have started to howl and its getting darker and darker over Main Range. Need temps to fall bigtime.
     
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  42. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    East coast surf next Mon / Tues ;)
     
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  43. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    New Snow for next 3 days. Windy.com. EC totals

    Perisher 26cm
    Thredbo 22cm
    Falls and Hotham 18cm
    Buller 10cm



    https://on.windy.com/1hs8n
     
  44. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    What about the EC meteograms? Probably the best way to get a raw model output with the least amount of professional judgement.
     
  45. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perisher next 5 day Stats.

     
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  46. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I thought some lines off the main chute with those SW winds Sunday.
     
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  47. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yr.no ones?
     
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  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I was looking at the yr.no metograms, which essentially should be the same thing.
     
  49. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Aren't the ones on Jane's Weather direct from EC? Would be interesting to compare to yr.no and see if there's any difference...
     
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  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I'd imagine she's using EC.
     
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