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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Majikthise, Jun 25, 2018.
A time series for the ENTIRE season ... that WOULD be extremely interesting...
Bullocks Flat sits at 1134m. Do people think it will be snowing there on Sat morning when the School holiday crowd arrive?
Problem isn’t usually Bullocks Flat itself, but up and down Bimblegumbie Hill (is that the right name?) before you get to it.
When they arrive.. .no.
It will be later
The table is part of this season wide project, that needs a bit of an update.
Thx @Jellybeans1000 .
Not liking this system for Buller. Hopefully net gain.
Bit of a downgrade this morning. Bloody warm in Melb, roll on Saturday!!
Abolish Monday mornings and Friday afternoons...
Love your work. Question - where do you get the BOM forecast figures? Are they total precip for the period or specifically the amount forecast to fall as snow above say 1400m?
Thanks From the Perisher BOM forecast. Total precip for period.
All the figures are based on Perisher's numbers where available (EC, GFS, AXS, BOM, Frog). The rest are general Australian Alps forecasts.
Cool - I think that upper range might be too high then, as it includes some precip that's forecast to fall as rain?
So many variables. Fantastic concept by @Jellybeans1000 but the sheer range of variables is difficult to manage in such a range of forecast sources.
That's definitely right, the upper range would certainly contain rain. Unfortunately the BOM doesn't specifically tell us what is snow and what is rain, and like POW said, with all the different variables, it's difficult to know where to put the line. Same with all of the models. The "commercial" forecasters give exact numbers, but who knows what goes into them.
If the BOM gave us an hourly or 3 hourly breakdown, like yr.no does, it would be easier to single out what is rain and what is not. But we just have to work with what we have got. I'll see if I can work out that line in the next table for the BOM, but it's probably fraught with error.
I admit the reality of the concept has various failings, without exact numbers, where the rain/snow line is, etc, etc. Data is not very linear and ignores many variables in the way it is displayed. It's really a simplistic table showing the general "thoughts" of the models, the Bureau and the various other forecasters outside of this space for people to get a sense of where the period is headed. It's really up to the weather gurus to decipher the information to come up with a more proper prediction.
It's designed to compare compare the forecasts in a general sense and get people out of the GFS or "favourite weather site" bubble. Not provide a local or mesoscale forecast that can be relied upon. As said above, no one can make this concept perfect, it's very complex with all the variables, time issues, etc. But I think I have had a good hard crack at it at least
Feedback always ends up with a better forecast though, so thanks
The table is a great reference to work off.
Whats up with BOM's Access R, seems to be showing only up to 48 hrs.
CAn anyone else post Axs R Charts
Bom does though?
On its meteograms?
That 72hr AXS R chart i posted above has 30-40mm showing up over NSW Alps. Like. And most of it piles on saturday afternoon.
Pretty confident Yr no just pulls the 3 hourly data off the AXS R model output.
Had a look at ADFD, and adjusted BOM figures accordingly.
Yr.no for the winner please.
For where are you getting the EC / yr.no numbers?
I'd say yr.no is showing 20cm for Hotham and 15cm for Buller?
That would be highly odd considering its run from
The Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Postboks 43 Blindern
Phone: +47 22 96 30 00
Misplaced confidence !
It uses the output of EC.
Predicting early rain for the system based on what i am feeling in Adelaide at the moment. Whilst i wouldn't say warm, there is a distinct lack of coldness, but plenty of moisture in the air. Eagerly waiting the cold blast later today.
Yep.no app saying snow from ~3-4am tonight for Hotham (Obviously top) and defs more than 20cm. 20cm to bottom elevation and double that at 1700m and above?
The Hotham numbers are for 1830m.
There’s no way those numbers translate for most of the resort.
Hell, even Hotham don’t measure snow depth at the top of the mountain.
Agreed. But the numbers are “correct” for where the location is listed on yr.no.
Ivo's hill All of the above.
Ok, doing the calculation for the Hotham Alpine resort (1691m), from the hour it gets to 0C, I get 28cm from yr.no.
I would have loved to have been able to buy it a while ago.
Be a good spot for riding.
And doing using the same method I get 35cm for Perisher Village.
Sorry for OT @Claude Cat
Looking at the radar, there is a fair bit of moisture ahead of the cold air, will the cold air catch up while there is still a fair bit of moisture left? I like the look f it in the Bight.
There's going to be rain ahead of the cold, not much doubt about that. IMO
It won't catch up, it's a fairly typical cold front where the rain develops just ahead of the moving cold air. That's pretty normal.
The Jetstream looks a bit ominous early Friday Morning, and I would not be surprised by the amount of rainfall. But optimism is a funny thing.
Perisher yesterday when I made the table. Downgraded overnight. I just fixed the BOM section.
Leaving for falls in a couple of hours.
It’s pretty damn warm here in mildura tho.
IMO as I said a day or two ago. Take your 30cm and be happy with it.
Gonna be up the Blue Mountains over the weekend - I know MetEye says some snow up around Oberon, do any wise heads think any would / could extend Mt Vic way??
Temperatures still rediculousrhere at Island Bend (just down from Guthega for newcomers) at 11.1 degrees. Winds have started to howl and its getting darker and darker over Main Range. Need temps to fall bigtime.
East coast surf next Mon / Tues
New Snow for next 3 days. Windy.com. EC totals
Falls and Hotham 18cm
What about the EC meteograms? Probably the best way to get a raw model output with the least amount of professional judgement.
Perisher next 5 day Stats.
I thought some lines off the main chute with those SW winds Sunday.
I was looking at the yr.no metograms, which essentially should be the same thing.
Aren't the ones on Jane's Weather direct from EC? Would be interesting to compare to yr.no and see if there's any difference...
I'd imagine she's using EC.