Predictions 6th-9th July

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Majikthise, Jun 25, 2018.

  1. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm running with 20cm at 1500m and 40cm above 1800m by Sunday IMO. If temps can get down to 3c or below before the rain hits tonight, then the rain rot should be limited with a bit of luck. IMO
     
  2. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks wet to start with, very wet IMO. The tail needs to deliver.
     
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  3. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Agree. But at least the rain is hitting overnight/early morning so its the best possible scenario IMO. Glass half full ;)
     
  4. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Classic wash-out for school holidays... :out:
     
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  5. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Oh mate please, pre-child probably would've done former and latter. Between contracts too...
     
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  6. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ahh the good old days.

    Still remember going into the local shop for a tune up a few years back. I filled out the form and the young hottie looked at it, then looked me up and down (middle aged) and she said "what, your advanced?? Do you ski the park?" And I replied "no, I ski the mountain" ha ha. She was not impressed ha ha.

    Sorry back on topic.
     
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  7. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep raw EC data
     
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  8. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Longer term and OCF for inside 3 days.
    We’ve definitely had this conversation before... a lot
     
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  9. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I predict a good weekend coming up. Mrs has jagged a job up the coast and told me she will take the kid up there and that i should go skiing on my own.
     
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  10. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Watching the National Radar loop, the majority of the current moisture is sliding south of Melb and the tropical feed is thinning out over SA with the cold not far behind. Vic is still a risk of pre frontal but hopefully NSW gets spared the worst of it. Watching with interest.
     
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  11. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sat picture shows the little low south of Eucla with moisture infeed from further SW. Pretty sure thats saturdays morning puke feast'developing.
     
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  12. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Now you make me feel middle age.

    You got to keep pushing the boundaries at home and stay safe in the mountains. Eventually they get use to it, just be nice about it. Tell em about the 4 million dollar insurance policy just in case. Your best mate never look so good.
     
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  13. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS R sticking with yesterday output - if anything perhaps ramping snowfall from the second front.

    I'm sticking with yesterdays call.

    20-30mm rain up till 10am friday followed by about 20cm snow up high.

    Then 30-40cm up high (20cm thredbo village) saturday into sunday.
     
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  14. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    [​IMG]


    Weather Situation
    A high over the Tasman Sea extends a ridge over much of New South Wales. This ridge will contract out of the state over the next day or two as a cold front moves through on Friday. A second, stronger cold front is forecast on Saturday. Conditions in the southeast will be windy with the passage of each front, and snow is expected about high ground in southern and central parts on Saturday. During Sunday a high over the Bight will strengthen another ridge across New South Wales.
     
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  15. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perisher



    DaBo



    BoM Weather Warning

    IDN21037
    Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
    New South Wales

    TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

    Severe Weather Warning
    for DAMAGING WINDS
    For people in Southern Tablelands and parts of Snowy Mountains Forecast Districts.

    Issued at 11:04 am Thursday, 5 July 2018.

    BLUSTERY WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE SOUTH OF THE STATE.

    Weather Situation: Vigourous west to northwesterly winds are expected to develop Thursday evening ahead of an approaching cold front. A second cold front will move through on Saturday which will bring another burst of strong winds.

    DAMAGING northwesterly winds, averaging 80 to 90 km/h, with gusts possibly reaching 125 km/h, are expected about the Alpine peaks above 1900 meters on Thursday evening.

    DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts in excess of 90 km/h are possible for parts of the Southern Tablelands on Friday and Saturday.

    Winds should ease by Friday afternoon following the passage of the front, though will increase again on Saturday.

    Locations which may be affected include Goulburn, Yass, Braidwood and parts of Perisher, Charlotte Pass and Thredbo above 1900 metres

    The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
    * Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
    * Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
    * Keep at least 8 metres away from fallen power lines or objects that may be energised, such as fences.
    * Report fallen power lines to either Ausgrid on 131 388, or Endeavour Energy on 131 003 or Essential Energy on 132 080, as shown on your power bill.
    * For emergency help in floods and storms, ring your local SES Unit on 132 500.


    The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 5:00 pm AEST Thursday.

    Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 218. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

     
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  16. Warlock_01

    Warlock_01 One of Us

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    Bureau of Meteorology - Victoria Severe Weather Warning 1
    IDV21037
    Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
    Victoria

    TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
    Severe Weather Warning
    for DAMAGING WINDS

    For people in parts of Central, East Gippsland, South West, North Central, North East, West and South Gippsland and Wimmera Forecast Districts.

    Issued at 3:14 pm Thursday, 5 July 2018.

    Weather Situation:
    An approaching cold front is expected to cross Victoria Thursday night and early Friday morning. Strong northerly winds are expected to redevelop ahead of the front, particularly over elevated areas.

    DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts of 100 km/h are expected across the warning area during the remainder of THURSDAY, mainly over elevated areas. Wind gusts of 110 km/h are expected across Alpine areas (above 1200 metres).

    Winds should slowly ease during FRIDAY morning.

    Locations which may be affected include Kyneton, Ballarat, Daylesford, Bacchus Marsh, Bright and all Alpine resorts.

    Wind gusts of 96km/h have been recorded at Mt William (Grampians).

    The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
    * Move vehicles under cover or away from trees;
    * Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony;
    * Keep clear of fallen power lines;


    The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 11:00 pm AEST Thursday.

    Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 217. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

     
  17. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Moisture Advection Sat night @700hPa ( bottom end of DGZ) Add adiabatic lift with those pressure gradients and oula- bouyancy + earthbound crystals. IMO
     
  18. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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  19. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Temps have dropped from 23c to 16c in Cenco with sunset so if Melb can hit similar numbers, overnight should be 3 to 4c above 1500m which sould reduce the dead loss.
     
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  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic. Predictions only.
     
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  21. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS Temp advection has improved muchly today. Less warm air in the mixing ratios with only a slight- moderate decrease in available moisture. Glass might be more than half full IMO.
     
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  22. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good slingshot potential with the 977hpa and a possible 3 low with the 3rd front AND a nice embedded trough after that.... I'm upping my total above 1800m to 50cents. 30cm for 1600m IMO


     
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  23. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bets are on. Who do you back? The Lows or the Ridge. Will the lows and troughs deepen and deliver their goods or will the trailing high ridge em out?..... The way this season is brewing, I'm all in for the Lows and Troughs.
     
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  24. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Saturdays Low ain't even on the Sat Pic yet
    Its currently located at 50 S 105 E
     
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  25. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm thinking the trailing high is going to help the sling shot of the whole package.
    Just has that look to it relative to it's position.
    remembering "the vibe "
     
  26. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Here is the saturday weather..With cold pool .
    *arrow.... I'm going to name this system . "Bullimore"
     
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  27. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Agree. The current MSLP I posted above has the best setup I have seen for a while.

    The trailing is still well off the WA coast with building fronts and lows pushing North.

    All we need is for the High to stand tall as it nears WA and we will get another 2 fronts pushing in underneath adding another 15cm each.

    I've been watching the Trailing for a while and it is deep and fat so it has major stall potential. Its glass full for me IMO.
     
  28. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    and there's not real big pressures in front of it.
    1014 - 1028.
    low lows behind in tandem .
    classic set-up.
    IMO.
     
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  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    In regards to being lost and rescued from the Southern Ocean at great cost or more for buller?
     
  30. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Rescued from far south ...50 degrees damn you!!


    Tony was rescued at 52 S 100 E

    which is exactly where the front and cold pool is at the mo
     
  31. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Green and red line showing a bit of support on Poama.
     
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  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It had better say thank you on arrival.
     
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  33. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    As Sensei says. Your block is only as strong as your opponents attack is weak.... and your attack is only as strong as your opponents defence is weak.

    Back on topic, in the battle between the Atacking Lows and the Blocking Highs, being only a few days after full dark (solstice), I back the Polar Low :)
     
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  34. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Who likes strong Vertical Velocity/ Adiabatic Cooling to combat projected snowfall levels ?
     
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  35. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thats what we are looking for.
     
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  36. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    T Skew lapse rates should be looking nice by tomorow imo.
     
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  37. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just sw of the tight low below eucla.
    Was looking at weatherzone layers. Goes well wide.
     
  38. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hope for greater accumulations around 1600m?
     
  39. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    If this plot is reasonably accurate when it arrives then yes.
     
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  40. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us

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    Bureau Home > Australia > New South Wales > Warnings Summary > Warning to Sheep Graziers

    Warning to Sheep Graziers
    IDN29000

    Warning to Sheep Graziers
    for the Central Tablelands, Southern Tablelands, South West Slopes, Snowy Mountains and Australian Capital Territory forecast districts

    Issued at 6:06 pm EST on Thursday 5 July 2018.

    Sheep graziers are warned that cold temperatures, showers and strong westerly winds are expected during Friday. Areas likely to be affected include parts of the Central Tablelands, Southern Tablelands, South West Slopes and Snowy Mountains forecast districts. There is a risk of losses of lambs and sheep exposed to these conditions.

    The next warning will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Thursday.

    ………..and there it is. Strange there is no warning for VIC.
     
  41. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Always the high is our friend.. Should name them and give them a smiley face .
     
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  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    upper reaches of Cradle Mountain still looking to be caked by Sundee.
     
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  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC backing off on precip for tomorrow IMO
    Have been expect this though.
     
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  44. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I am planning on taking a trip out to Donna Buang on Saturday morning, plan to be there late morning. Does anyone have a view as to the snowfall probability? Only going for a country escape and want to know what to throw in the car...
     
  45. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    50 mm of clear today - maybe 20mm of mint later on. Tmw is the real decider on washout or season builder
     
  46. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking at sat pic cold air going to move in around 10am as axs has been saying for the last two days. 50mm unlikely as the last rain band has just about past.
     
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  47. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    was just observing that.
     
  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  49. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    and it stops on the border.
    must be that big brick wall blocking...
     
  50. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Victorians are just soft. What are severe and damaging winds in Vic is but a gentle breeze in the premier state.