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Predictions 7-10 July System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by DidSurfNowSki, Jul 1, 2019.

  1. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC suggesting a little bit at the start, then some nice falls in the tail.

    Eg for Da Bo



    And for Hotham



    I’d post the pretty charts, but I’m stuck using the mob at the moment.
     
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  2. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    strange charts.....
    another dreaded cutoff with some moisture infeed
    However potential to improve
     
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  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sliding, ridged decaying low, coupled with -'ve zonals through the Tasman swinging in moisture from the Pac.
    It looks to me like a confluence trough feature up/down the Eastern Seaboard. There's nothing polar about it, except maybe for some healthy winter uppers (sub -20c). Perhaps 5cm up high, rain below ~1700m. Snowmaking weather would be a better outcome IMO.

    Bit of an overlap in dates, as the next snow bearing feature is on the 10th (other thread).
     
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  4. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bit of love for both 9/10th and later on the ensembles
     
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    As per other thread. Yep.
     
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Gotta admit, the 9th looks weird AF on EC.
    GFS is not even close so it's all hinged on that mess on the 7th IMO.
     
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  7. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    Prefer this to bugger off, however will the trough increase the likelihood of front in southern ocean for July 10 peaking over SE compared to a ridging scenario?
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    As we head into July we’ll see less ridging dominance, so it’s limit on ridging influence is negligible IMO.
    Like you, I’d rather the trough simmered down – not much good comes from the Pacific (or North for that matter) in winter.
     
  9. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    DSNS Abomination forming. IMO. Welcome to the party, Pal. :D
     
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  10. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    I wondered when you'd turn up. Welcome ! :p
     
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  11. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher One of Us

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    I saw this brewing on the other side of the globe a few days ago.

    YR likes it ATM, but like the one just gone, that warm patch at the beginning is worry. If that first band on Sunday can have a temp 1deg cooler it would be better.

    Perisher forecast
     
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  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I am fairly confident that event on the 9th will fade to black in the next run or two.
     
  13. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher One of Us

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    How can you "un-like" a prediction like that :(
     
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    That thing is what I call a 'circumstantial dump'. Models merely trying to transition the system through two anoms - the trough feature on the 7th & the 10th.
    IMO.
     
    #14 POW_hungry, Jul 1, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 1, 2019
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  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  16. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    7th - 8th still looks wet.

     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS G? meh.

    I agree, it doesn't ideal below 1700m on the LR models, but it's a week out.
     
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  18. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Meh ...... Used by BOM. Must have some cred.

     
  19. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Used by the bom for what?

    Displayed by the bom.
     
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  20. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC shows five to ten CM over this period
     
  21. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Used by the BOM for public reference.
     
  22. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well it is out of their R&D dept.
     
  23. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    500's marginal. Just don't see it at resort level. Wintery mix at best.
     
  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Personal preference, but it's been well documented BoM use EC (by way of superior-skill) to formulate forecasts and synoptic charts such as the 4-dayer. ACCESS-G is largely for public reference as it's 'tuned' to Aus climate - probably largely for the rural farming sector? Can't beat EC's res & skill though.

    In my experience, ACCESS-G is a good tool for model comparison in the short-to-mid range progs but ACCESS-R is the real deal. Love it.
    500's look ok to me. Access-G look like the ambitious pick of the bunch. Anything sub -20C will get the job done with low level cold-air support.

    AXS-G

    EC:
     
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  25. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's not sub -20 on EC in NSW. As I said. Marginal.
     
  26. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    No... It's sub -24
     
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Righto.
     
  28. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    May not understand charts I guess
     
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  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I like it better when you talk spag to me @Astro66
    Marginal, I agree.
    [​IMG]
     
  30. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's a cutoff.
    They can be anything... Even a gold logie winner
     
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  31. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    2 things.

    1) Posted EC was 7th, not 8th.
    2) Range is -20 to -22. Therefore not entirely sub -20.
     
  32. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tend to be warmer.
     
  33. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Where do you come up with this?

    Some of the coldest cold pools I've seen are cutoffs.
    Due to the nature of the beast.
     
  34. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    System doesn't even tickle until later in the date range. Your chart dates are irrelevant
     
  35. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    When they breakoff from the vortex, they interact with warmer air. Thus tending to be warmer than if they remained intact.

    https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/what-is-a-cut-off-low-and-why-do-they-matter/527864
     
  36. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    I guess it depends which model you're looking at for moisture.


    And it wasn't my chart dates. It's the one posted by POW H.
     
  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The discussion & thread is for the 7th. I bring you LE 7th!
    + I bring you LE 7th with SUB -20C temps South of Sydney....


    ...'aint no cut-off (upper or surface) low in any of that.
     
  38. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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  39. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Agree. But I don't see that.

    Anyway, if it does form, it looks to slide on spag, regardless.
     
  40. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    -20 yes. Sub -20 ??? Meh.

    But ........ semantics. Marginal definitely.

     
    #40 Astro66, Jul 1, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 1, 2019
  41. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Everyone in seems to be in furious agreement above... the event due around the 7th looks marginal at the moment. If I was going to have a punt I'd say models will downgrade as we get closer given it's heading in from the general vicinity of Perth.

    The pulse around the 10th looks much nicer at this stage.
     
  42. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's cause the event on the 7th...is actually on the 8th.
    Ens
     
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  43. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Yeah night of the 7th / morning of the 8th based on EC I think?
     
  44. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's gone on EC now...
    Only the ensembles left
     
  45. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Ah ok - I'm looking at the yr.no output which appears to be based on a run from 17:40 yesterday (AEST).
     
  46. Old School Mike

    Old School Mike One of Us

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    She's looking pretty cactus to me so far this year. Can't see there being any resemblance of a decent cover till August. Glad I didn't get the season ticket
     
  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Righto.
    Lol.
     
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  48. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie One of Us

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    8/10 years the snow is like this until the second or third week of July when a series of “dumps” opens the rest of the hill. How many of these dumps occur determines a great season over an average one.
     
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  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    100%
    Just baffles me how people write off a whole month, on day two of a month. I'll note it down for 31st July when the season's potentially humming.
     
  50. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    This ^

    IMO July looks pretty good from my angle. Plenty of options for snowfalls in the middle 10 days of the month. And a better climatic setup than mid-late June.