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Predictions 7-10 July System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by DidSurfNowSki, Jul 1, 2019.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
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  2. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Potential
     
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  3. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Team Bears noting your predictions....it would appear next three weeks will make or break 2019 Snow Season.Maybe at best 15cm added to this gauge over next two weeks if things are optimal?
     
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  4. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    We would be talking a fair bit more than 15cm.
     
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  5. bawbawskier77

    bawbawskier77 Hard Yards

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    forecast for early next week has certainly improved on the baw baw front today..fingers crossed its real
     
  6. blowfin

    blowfin One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Some impressive cloud formations over Perth this morning. Rain band has has arrived.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  7. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    The event is hereby blessed
     
  8. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    NSW BOM bumped this system up a fair bit
     
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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Divergent AXS Vs EC.
    ~300m elevation discrepancy between death or glory.
    AXS-R showing a UL cold pool, EC says try again. I'd probably back AXS-R for now but @Astro66 probably still reckons 'marginal'.

    EC

    AXS-R
     
  10. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    well one is 10am and one is 10pm
    I'm a different egg at those times
     
  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Touche.
    Speaking of egg, I've got it on my face.
    Yep, snow to ~1500m by Monday AM, at the passing of the trough.
     
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  12. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    #ILikeUpgrades

    BoM 4 Dayer



    Snowies Regional



    DaBo



    Hotham

     
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  13. PowWow

    PowWow Hard Yards

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    That conveyor belt on the BOM charts! Non-stop from tomorrow for 10days? Would love to see a merged image of the 4 dayers from now through to 15th as they progress.
     
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  14. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    It is a four day chart
     
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  15. PowWow

    PowWow Hard Yards

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    Yeh I get it but you can see the others lining up thus my edit.
     
  16. crikey

    crikey Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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    Location:
    Tweed shire. Kingscliff
    ACC r showing a band of precipitation over the alps on late sunday evening and into monday morning., the 8th July.
    I like the overnight time slot coupled with precip' signal
    Some weak surface and 500hpa troughing, contributing.
    thickness only 544 for the duration so the time slot is crucial here to avoid the dreaded wash out
    wind change line to the SW about monday 7am

    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/cha...EDT&area=Au&model=CG&chartSubmit=Refresh+View
     
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  17. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mirrors the bom forecast
     
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  18. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    This front tonight looks iffy on temps. PV level might scrape through. Looks fast moving, and appears to be the start of many many days of winds. Gonna be a challenging week. But very much - no pain no gain...
     
  19. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    If it’s not blowing it’s not snowing.
     
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  20. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Rain tonight. Turning to wintery mix tomorrow at lower resort elevation. Snow up higher. I'm happy at marginal. :D
     
  21. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Obs thread needed
     
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  22. crikey

    crikey Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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    So being new here where do you post obs' for these events. This is a thread for an event , why separate the obs?

    Thredbo top station 12.30pm altitude 1957m
    Temp 2.6 deg c
    Dew point promising at 0.7deg c
    Only need a drop of 2-3 deg for precip' to fall as snow at 2000m
    Humidity already at 87%
    Snow at lower levels may be an issue. But the drop in temps in the evening is a bonus
    Nice weather watch for the night owls tonight..
    http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDN60801/IDN60801.95909.shtml
     
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  23. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/observations-7th-to-15th-july.85125/

    Just started
     
  24. Scoober

    Scoober One of Us

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    Just helps keep things tidier. Obs you get a lot more pics and froth, also on the ground obs from all over the country as a system progresses through, as compared to this thread which is more models, data, opinions and hope casts. My point of view only.
     
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  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good chance at some CHUNDER SNOW in the early hours of tomorrow AM, I reckon.
    OCF for tonight/tomorrow.
    [​IMG]
     
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  26. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Was in the bom forecast as well
     
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  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, just saw that.
    Maybe a bit more Vic exclusive though.
     
  28. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Can I just welcome @DidSurfNowSki to the Abomination Party again. :D

    Should turn to snow soon. :)
     
  29. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hi @Astro66

    [​IMG]



    BoM - 4 Dayer




    BoM - Snowies Area Forecast




    BoM - DaBa

    Thredbo Forecast
    View the current warnings for New South Wales

    Forecast issued at 4:25 pm EST on Monday 8 July 2019.

    Forecast for the rest of Monday
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Partly cloudy.
    Chance of any rain: 20% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a snow shower. Winds westerly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the evening.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Tuesday 9 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -2
    Max -1
    Snow showers.
    Possible rainfall: 3 to 10 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of snow showers. Winds westerly 25 to 35 km/h.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Wednesday 10 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -3
    Max -1
    Snow showers. Becoming very windy.
    Possible rainfall: 2 to 8 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of snow showers, most likely at night. Winds westerly 20 to 30 km/h turning northwesterly 45 to 65 km/h during the morning and early afternoon then increasing to 60 to 85 km/h in the evening.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Thursday 11 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -3
    Max -2
    Snow showers. Very windy.
    Possible rainfall: 15 to 20 mm
    Chance of any rain: 100%[​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds northwesterly 60 to 85 km/h turning westerly 45 to 65 km/h during the morning.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Friday 12 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -3
    Max -1
    Snow showers. Very windy.
    Possible rainfall: 15 to 20 mm
    Chance of any rain: 100%[​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Winds west to northwesterly 60 to 85 km/h.

    Saturday 13 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -5
    Max -4
    Snow showers. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 3 to 8 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers. Winds westerly 35 to 50 km/h.

    Sunday 14 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -6
    Max -2
    Snow shower or two. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 1 to 4 mm
    Chance of any rain: 60% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of snow showers, most likely later in the day. Winds westerly 35 to 55 km/h.

    Monday 15 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -4
    Max -1
    Snow shower or two. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
    Chance of any rain: 50% [​IMG]
    Alpine area
    Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of snow showers. Winds westerly 35 to 55 km/h turning southwesterly 50 to 70 km/h during the morning.

    The next routine forecast will be issued at 4:45 am EST Tuesday.
     
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  30. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mount Hotham Forecast
    View the current warnings for Victoria

    Forecast issued at 4:30 pm EST on Monday 8 July 2019.

    Forecast for the rest of Monday

    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Mostly clear.
    Chance of any rain: 5% [​IMG]
    Mostly clear. Winds westerly 20 to 25 km/h turning north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h in the evening.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Tuesday 9 July

    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -3
    Max 0
    Snow shower or two developing.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
    Chance of any rain: 50% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of snow showers in the afternoon and evening. Winds northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]




    Wednesday 10 July

    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -3
    Max -1
    Snow showers. Very windy.
    Possible rainfall: 6 to 20 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the evening. Winds northwesterly 45 to 65 km/h.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Thursday 11 July

    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -3
    Max -2
    Snow showers. Very windy.
    Possible rainfall: 15 to 20 mm
    Chance of any rain: 100%[​IMG]
    Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds northwesterly 30 to 40 km/h tending west to northwesterly 40 to 55 km/h during the morning.

    Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 1 [Low]

    Friday 12 July

    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -2
    Max -1
    Snow showers. Very windy.
    Possible rainfall: 15 to 25 mm
    Chance of any rain: 100%[​IMG]
    Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Winds northwesterly 40 to 60 km/h.


    Saturday 13 July

    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -4
    Max -4
    Snow showers clearing.
    Possible rainfall: 3 to 5 mm
    Chance of any rain: 95% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of snow showers. Winds westerly 30 to 40 km/h tending southwesterly 25 to 30 km/h during the day.


    Sunday 14 July

    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -4
    Max -2
    Snow showers. Becoming windy.
    Possible rainfall: 1 to 4 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers. Winds west to southwesterly 30 to 45 km/h.


    Monday 15 July

    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -3
    Max 0
    Snow shower or two. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
    Chance of any rain: 60% [​IMG]
    Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of snow showers. Winds southwesterly 35 to 50 km/h.


    The next routine forecast will be issued at 5:30 am EST Tuesday.
     
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