Predictions 7-12th Jun 2021 - Curtain Raiser

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POW Hungry

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Welcome to the 2021 Season. To get us underway we're looking at GFS having a tizz. And EC playing it cool and modest.

But in all seriousness, this one has been in our sights for about 4-5 days now.
Starting to see some alignment of a polar front arriving on the 8th.

Long Range it's looking like a 15-25cm fall at this stage IMO. Looking for closer alignment amongst the global models over the next 3-5 days.

EC Determs:
ecmwf_z500_mslp_aus_9.png


GFS acting pretty volatile at the moment with the usual LR Autumn variabiliy.
gfs_z500a_aus_33.png
 

blindo

Hard Yards
Oct 13, 2017
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throw the canadian in there and its a cut-off trifecta.. looks like some fun ahead!
 

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Jasper Schwarz

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Jun 18, 2017
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GFS seems like it needs to dial back in the temps atm. Far colder and more intense than EC and CMC IMO.

Has a proper polar outbreak, turning into a cut off over the soars coast before coming back into the mountains again in a 2020 fashion.
First 2 are GFS and last one is EC

EC and CMC both favouring a cut off but a bit warmer (but seems a little bit better this morning IMO, could be wrong though).
64D2C1C1-C583-47EB-8137-5E31610B8F83.jpeg
BF6B27CD-0577-4760-9D60-DCEBFEC33C3A.jpeg

A57C0704-28E7-4592-BA57-C3335C18115D.jpeg
 

FourSquare04

A Local
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GFS seems like it needs to dial back in the temps atm. Far colder and more intense than EC and CMC IMO.

Has a proper polar outbreak, turning into a cut off over the soars coast before coming back into the mountains again in a 2020 fashion.
First 2 are GFS and last one is EC

EC and CMC both favouring a cut off but a bit warmer (but seems a little bit better this morning IMO, could be wrong though).
64D2C1C1-C583-47EB-8137-5E31610B8F83.jpeg
BF6B27CD-0577-4760-9D60-DCEBFEC33C3A.jpeg

A57C0704-28E7-4592-BA57-C3335C18115D.jpeg

G-Frog-S is the biggest weener tease of a model that has ever come out! Loves getting you all psyched up with a long range model run, often with an ECL thrown in for good measure at the end, then only to fizz out about 72 hours out from the projected storm / cold front date!

I'm firmly with EC and will back it any day, most consistent and reliable model out there IMO
 
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Jellybeans

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GFS seems like it needs to dial back in the temps atm. Far colder and more intense than EC and CMC IMO.

Has a proper polar outbreak, turning into a cut off over the soars coast before coming back into the mountains again in a 2020 fashion.
First 2 are GFS and last one is EC

EC and CMC both favouring a cut off but a bit warmer (but seems a little bit better this morning IMO, could be wrong though).
64D2C1C1-C583-47EB-8137-5E31610B8F83.jpeg
BF6B27CD-0577-4760-9D60-DCEBFEC33C3A.jpeg

A57C0704-28E7-4592-BA57-C3335C18115D.jpeg
Basically the difference between a 15-30cm system and a 30-50cm one:
B96609BF-5F50-46C7-9B3B-2FD349FF2D67.jpeg

08D2E663-6C43-43B3-885D-714F4ACEFA54.jpeg
 

Jellybeans

Part of the Furniture
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G-Frog-S is the biggest weener tease of a model that has ever come out! Loves getting you all psyched up with a long range model run, often with an ECL thrown in for good measure at the end, then only to fizz out about 72 hours out from the projected storm / cold front date!

I'm firmly with EC and will back it any day, most consistent and reliable model out there IMO
Not by a lot though. I’m not saying treat GFS as gospel, but there is potential both ways.
 

FourSquare04

A Local
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If the snow gods truly hate Victorians watch it dump and us being still in lockdown... fark I hope not because that is a kill that many down here that peeps in ski industry just cant swallow.. Bring on season 2021 and look forward to many more threads of weather content vs covid shite

You need to relocate back to Guthega, Guthega Girl! No issue there ;)
 

lewis

Addicted
Jan 25, 2018
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GFS 18z still sticking with its last two runs except now it's the 9th till the 11th.

Edit: am wrong.
 

Guthega Girl

One of Us
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You need to relocate back to Guthega, Guthega Girl! No issue there ;)
If i could i well and truly would escape this hell hole... I was actually in Jindy just on a month ago... its kind of getting sad and depressing, VIC snow industry is worth millions to this economy and weather etc is one thing so lets hope it come good for everyone's sake.. back to predictions.

I see the Frog is calling this good in VIC over the next few weeks if we are allowed out, keen to see how this tracks
 

Jellybeans

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Does EC consistently outperform GFS like it does in North American modelling?
Technically yes. But these days not by much.
Each of them have their own biases though.

Here is the last month’s 5 day verification for our region:
4DDB6EE6-62D9-43C2-B2FE-B7915BBDBC47.png


EC/UKMO tend to be better than GFS/Canadian by a little bit, but they all have bad days.
 

FourSquare04

A Local
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Over the many years of weather watching, I have found EC has been consistently better in predicting/identifying long range systems. As previously mentioned, GFS can be an absolute Pr!$k tease and throw up the best looking system you've seen in years on 100+ hours, getting you psyched up only to crush all hopes and dreams as it gradually downgrades itself back to reality over the following few days :D
 

CarveMan

I Never Slice
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Over the many years of weather watching, I have found EC has been consistently better in predicting/identifying long range systems. As previously mentioned, GFS can be an absolute Pr!$k tease and throw up the best looking system you've seen in years on 100+ hours, getting you psyched up only to crush all hopes and dreams as it gradually downgrades itself back to reality over the following few days :D
I just watch EC via YR. I skied every good storm in 17/18 thanks to that, good enough for me.
 

Jasper Schwarz

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GFS dialing it back a little bit. Still has that tropical moisture feed from the NE but missing the NSW alps (Almost comically.), with plenty of cold, even hinting at some good snow in Blue mountains. Similar trend to 18z too. IMO, i think it will settle somewhere in between the runs. Time will tell.
Far more mositure for VIC though.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_aus_fh186-246.gif
 

Donza

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GFS dialing it back a little bit. Still has that tropical moisture feed from the NE but missing the NSW alps (Almost comically.), with plenty of cold, even hinting at some good snow in Blue mountains. Similar trend to 18z too. IMO, i think it will settle somewhere in between the runs. Time will tell.
Far more mositure for VIC though.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_aus_fh186-246.gif
That chart makes zero sense.
Actually even less than zero.
If that comes to fruition.
Widespread rain.
 

Jasper Schwarz

Young but not afraid
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Jun 18, 2017
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That chart makes zero sense.
Actually even less than zero.
If that comes to fruition.
Widespread rain.
I must admit, I don't truely understand the progression either. I look to you and others for guidance there. How could something like that stall over central NSW without 3 massive blobking highs in the way?
 

Jellybeans

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It's the 144 hours that gets me psyched.
At 144, it's got higher accuracy and it's delivery into the SE on point.
upload_2021-6-1_16-55-15.png
Yeah this seems the most logical of the options dished up. Well... more logical than GFS this afternoon. The middle route between CMC and GFS.
Perhaps it comes a bit further south too (like the Canadian).
 
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