Predictions 7-12th Jun 2021 - Curtain Raiser

[POW Hungry]

Welcome to the 2021 Season. To get us underway we're looking at GFS having a tizz. And EC playing it cool and modest.

But in all seriousness, this one has been in our sights for about 4-5 days now.
Starting to see some alignment of a polar front arriving on the 8th.

Long Range it's looking like a 15-25cm fall at this stage IMO. Looking for closer alignment amongst the global models over the next 3-5 days.

EC Determs:

GFS acting pretty volatile at the moment with the usual LR Autumn variabiliy.

 

[CarveMan]

 

[Billy_Buttons]

Name it now: Frozen McFreeze Balls

 

[boski]

There’s gonna be some sort of weather coz this week’s will be boring as bat shit.

 

[blindo]

throw the canadian in there and its a cut-off trifecta.. looks like some fun ahead!

 

[Donza]

 

[Snow Blowey]

East coast flood thread.

 

[Jasper Schwarz]

GFS seems like it needs to dial back in the temps atm. Far colder and more intense than EC and CMC IMO.

Has a proper polar outbreak, turning into a cut off over the soars coast before coming back into the mountains again in a 2020 fashion.
First 2 are GFS and last one is EC

EC and CMC both favouring a cut off but a bit warmer (but seems a little bit better this morning IMO, could be wrong though).

 

[Donza]

Beast from the east. V2.

 

[FourSquare04]

GFS seems like it needs to dial back in the temps atm. Far colder and more intense than EC and CMC IMO.

Has a proper polar outbreak, turning into a cut off over the soars coast before coming back into the mountains again in a 2020 fashion.
First 2 are GFS and last one is EC

EC and CMC both favouring a cut off but a bit warmer (but seems a little bit better this morning IMO, could be wrong though).

G-Frog-S is the biggest weener tease of a model that has ever come out! Loves getting you all psyched up with a long range model run, often with an ECL thrown in for good measure at the end, then only to fizz out about 72 hours out from the projected storm / cold front date!

I'm firmly with EC and will back it any day, most consistent and reliable model out there IMO

 

[Jellybeans]

GFS seems like it needs to dial back in the temps atm. Far colder and more intense than EC and CMC IMO.

Has a proper polar outbreak, turning into a cut off over the soars coast before coming back into the mountains again in a 2020 fashion.
First 2 are GFS and last one is EC

EC and CMC both favouring a cut off but a bit warmer (but seems a little bit better this morning IMO, could be wrong though).

Basically the difference between a 15-30cm system and a 30-50cm one:

 

[Jellybeans]

G-Frog-S is the biggest weener tease of a model that has ever come out! Loves getting you all psyched up with a long range model run, often with an ECL thrown in for good measure at the end, then only to fizz out about 72 hours out from the projected storm / cold front date!

I'm firmly with EC and will back it any day, most consistent and reliable model out there IMO

Not by a lot though. I’m not saying treat GFS as gospel, but there is potential both ways.

 

[Donza]

Bit of vs not much of.

 

[Donza]

snap.

 

[Guthega Girl]

If the snow gods truly hate Victorians watch it dump and us being still in lockdown... fark I hope not because that is a kill that many down here that peeps in ski industry just cant swallow.. Bring on season 2021 and look forward to many more threads of weather content vs covid shite

 

[FourSquare04]

If the snow gods truly hate Victorians watch it dump and us being still in lockdown... fark I hope not because that is a kill that many down here that peeps in ski industry just cant swallow.. Bring on season 2021 and look forward to many more threads of weather content vs covid shite

You need to relocate back to Guthega, Guthega Girl! No issue there

 

[lewis]

GFS 18z still sticking with its last two runs except now it's the 9th till the 11th.

Edit: am wrong.

 

[Guthega Girl]

You need to relocate back to Guthega, Guthega Girl! No issue there

If i could i well and truly would escape this hell hole... I was actually in Jindy just on a month ago... its kind of getting sad and depressing, VIC snow industry is worth millions to this economy and weather etc is one thing so lets hope it come good for everyone's sake.. back to predictions.

I see the Frog is calling this good in VIC over the next few weeks if we are allowed out, keen to see how this tracks

 

[Jellybeans]

I’d say it’s cutting off like EC now.

The key difference is what happens to said cut-off, EC keeps it north, GFS sends the cold pool back down for round 2 for the Alps.

 

[Jasper Schwarz]

GFS 18z still sticking with its last two runs except now it's the 9th till the 11th.

stalling cut off right over the mountains, pulling mositure from straight from the tropics for a second dump. Edit: Snap again

 

[absentskier]

Does EC consistently outperform GFS like it does in North American modelling?

 

[Jellybeans]

Does EC consistently outperform GFS like it does in North American modelling?

Technically yes. But these days not by much.
Each of them have their own biases though.

Here is the last month’s 5 day verification for our region:

EC/UKMO tend to be better than GFS/Canadian by a little bit, but they all have bad days.

 

[FourSquare04]

Over the many years of weather watching, I have found EC has been consistently better in predicting/identifying long range systems. As previously mentioned, GFS can be an absolute Pr!$k tease and throw up the best looking system you've seen in years on 100+ hours, getting you psyched up only to crush all hopes and dreams as it gradually downgrades itself back to reality over the following few days

 

[CarveMan]

Over the many years of weather watching, I have found EC has been consistently better in predicting/identifying long range systems. As previously mentioned, GFS can be an absolute Pr!$k tease and throw up the best looking system you've seen in years on 100+ hours, getting you psyched up only to crush all hopes and dreams as it gradually downgrades itself back to reality over the following few days

I just watch EC via YR. I skied every good storm in 17/18 thanks to that, good enough for me.

 

[CarveMan]

Also EC via Windy is also good for visualisations.

 

[Fancy_Pants]

I just watch EC via YR. I skied every good storm in 17/18 thanks to that, good enough for me.

YR?

 

[TheFake]

YR?

https://www.yr.no/en

 

[Jasper Schwarz]

GFS dialing it back a little bit. Still has that tropical moisture feed from the NE but missing the NSW alps (Almost comically.), with plenty of cold, even hinting at some good snow in Blue mountains. Similar trend to 18z too. IMO, i think it will settle somewhere in between the runs. Time will tell.
Far more mositure for VIC though.

 

[Donza]

GFS dialing it back a little bit. Still has that tropical moisture feed from the NE but missing the NSW alps (Almost comically.), with plenty of cold, even hinting at some good snow in Blue mountains. Similar trend to 18z too. IMO, i think it will settle somewhere in between the runs. Time will tell.
Far more mositure for VIC though.

That chart makes zero sense.
Actually even less than zero.
If that comes to fruition.
Widespread rain.

 

[Jasper Schwarz]

That chart makes zero sense.
Actually even less than zero.
If that comes to fruition.
Widespread rain.

I must admit, I don't truely understand the progression either. I look to you and others for guidance there. How could something like that stall over central NSW without 3 massive blobking highs in the way?

 

[POW Hungry]

Ya. GFS variability and confusing progression says to me it’s so far off the pace here.

The Canuck and The Euro has far better alignment at the moment. Which is saying something.

 

[Kletterer]

MODS NOTE - A few Off Topic posts earlier today. STAY ON TOPIC. Criticizing alternative forecasters is also not what we do on this forum.

 

[POW Hungry]

Salubrious set-up IMO.
EC 00z:

 

[Jasper Schwarz]

Salubrious set-up IMO.
EC 00z:

I had to google what salubrious meant. Im sitting here waiting patiently for the next frame.
Had a Look at AXS -G. BOM seem like they think a good chunk of moisture is on the way in this time period

EDIT: That was not what I was expecting to happen XD

 

[Donza]

EC is so close to being on.
Alas. The cold pool is a Mildura special.
*At the moment.

 

[POW Hungry]

EC is so close to being on.
Alas. The cold pool is a Mildura special.
*At the moment.

I am thinking EC Ensembles should have it pretty much nailed tonight.

 

[POW Hungry]

 

[Kletterer]

 

[Jasper Schwarz]

EC is so close to being on.
Alas. The cold pool is a Mildura special.
*At the moment.

Got enough cold for you?

 

[Donza]

Just looked at EC High res on layers.
Looks pretty mint.

 

[Donza]

Snow in strange places.

 

[Kletterer]

A bit of Hook would be nice.

 

[POW Hungry]

Finger of god?

 

[Jellybeans]

EC is essentially running the same scenario as GFS this morning.
Really decent system.

 

[POW Hungry]

It's the 144 hours that gets me psyched.
At 144, it's got higher accuracy and it's delivery into the SE on point.

 

[Donza]

Finger of god?

Shoots a cold pool to Northern NSW.
-32 at 500hpa

 

[Jellybeans]

It's the 144 hours that gets me psyched.
At 144, it's got higher accuracy and it's delivery into the SE on point.

Yeah this seems the most logical of the options dished up. Well... more logical than GFS this afternoon. The middle route between CMC and GFS.
Perhaps it comes a bit further south too (like the Canadian).

 

[Kletterer]

An improvement in the Bulk Advection path- DL Shear could make this a doozy.

 

[Donza]

So we have a stacked interior low cold pool..
and a developing surface low.

 

[POW Hungry]

216hr tile on EC is one for posterity.