Predictions 7-12th Jun 2021 - Curtain Raiser

Status
Not open for further replies.

Donza

Dogs body...
Ski Pass
Platinum
Apr 21, 2004
127,813
84,724
3,563
woonona
Hey can someone find the synoptic chart from July last year when as that chaos happened on the road at east jindy? The B double going off etc?

Bloody @Richard. what a time for search to be down!
IDX0102.202007130000.gif
IDX0102.202007131200.gif
 

NightSky

One of Us
Ski Pass
Ski Pass
Jul 6, 2015
3,502
8,382
363
Omega Centauri
Jane has a small hole in her data modelling for Perisher

Short term has final temp on Thurs in negative territory (-2)

1623049793500.png

Then the starting temp in the long term is in positive territory (+0.7)

1623049828576.png
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jacko4650
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass

Richard

Maintenance Dept
Administrator
Mar 14, 1995
15,498
22,099
813
Clarence Town
Hey can someone find the synoptic chart from July last year when as that chaos happened on the road at east jindy? The B double going off etc?

Bloody @Richard. what a time for search to be down!

Try the homepage search, if the thread was in Weather it is public and will be found.

(I'm rebuilding the search index tonight)

Edit: I see Donzah found it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Chaeron and Ozgirl

Fancy_Pants

Addicted
Jan 29, 2010
244
243
113
Despite the modelling at times saying more snow than rain in Vic, I'm hardly surprised that we're looking at 30-50 followed by heavy rain.

Does anyone recall Vicco majors doing well from a wandering/ECL set up?
 

Baw Baw Bear

One of Us
Jul 12, 2003
519
549
263
Melbourne, Baw Baw

Kletterer

Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
Moderator
Nov 26, 2014
22,542
26,980
1,063
Canberra
EC -Wed 1pm to Thurs 4pm seems to have the best Deep Layer Shear conditions . Total Column Condensed Water plots follow suit.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Donza

absentskier

Smug bozo
Ski Pass
Jun 10, 2010
28,648
19,904
1,063
Melbourne
Pretty much.
I only see pain on Thursday in Victoria. The only savior would be adiabatic cooling as the winds come from the SE.
IMO
Yeah going to be very interesting to see the snow levels on Thursday. The BOM's NE Vic regional forecast indicates snow above 1400m, but I just don't see it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Claude Cat

Kelpieboy

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jun 27, 2015
2,964
8,904
363
Tooma , NSW

Warning to Sheep Graziers
for the Northern Tablelands, Central Tablelands, Southern Tablelands, North West Slopes & Plains, Central West Slopes & Plains, South West Slopes, Riverina, Lower Western, Snowy Mountains and Australian Capital Territory forecast districts​


Issued at 4:59 pm EST on Monday 7 June 2021.


Sheep graziers are warned that cold temperatures, rain and showers and northerly winds are expected during Tuesday. Areas likely to be affected include the Southern Tablelands, South West Slopes and Snowy Mountains forecast districts and parts of the Northern Tablelands, Central Tablelands, North West Slopes & Plains, Central West Slopes & Plains, Riverina, Lower Western and Australian Capital Territory forecast districts. There is a risk of losses of lambs and sheep exposed to these conditions.


The next warning will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Monday.


Warning to Sheep Graziers
for the Wimmera, Northern Country, North Central, North East, South West, Central and West and South Gippsland forecast districts​


Issued at 4:29 pm EST on Monday 7 June 2021.


Sheep graziers are warned that cold temperatures, rain and showers and northerly winds are expected to extend from the southwest late Monday and early Tuesday, before easing during Tuesday afternoon. Areas likely to be affected include the North Central, South West and Central forecast districts and parts of the Wimmera, Northern Country, North East and West and South Gippsland forecast districts. There is a risk of losses of lambs and sheep exposed to these conditions.


The Warning to Sheep Graziers for the Mallee forecast district has been cancelled.


The next warning will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Monday


Here we go boys .............. its officially on
 

skimax

Old n' Crusty
Ski Pass
Jul 25, 2000
32,707
7,587
1,025
Melbourne Australia
For Moonbah BOM is now suggesting:

40 - 70 mm Wednesday with snow above 900 ASL

50 - 80 mm Thursday with snow above 900 ASL

Looks like the farm here at 1100 ASL will get damp one way or the other.
Hey SMS skier , i think your new insulation on your upstairs extension will get a workout ! Look forward to the photos !
 
  • Like
Reactions: SMSkier

lewis

Addicted
Jan 25, 2018
170
221
113
GFS is saying very wet in Victoria and not much precipitation at all in NSW. Bit of contrast to the BOM moisture upgrade for NSW this afternoon.
 

Kletterer

Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
Moderator
Nov 26, 2014
22,542
26,980
1,063
Canberra
ICON 06 has a hankering for Electrical storms. Another model struggling to deal with such a volatile mixing of thermal interaction
 
  • Like
Reactions: Claude Cat

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
23,362
37,679
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
EC and GFS have both slightly downgraded the breadth of the low and cold air on the 12z runs this morning. Small nuisances here and there which are likely to make the difference.

The broadening of the Low reduces the intensity of falls in part, so I think we might see a reduction in precip totals IMO.

This does put more marginal conditions on the table for the NSW resorts, particularly on Wed night, Thursday IMO.
 

FourSquare04

A Local
Sep 11, 2001
6,674
4,458
563
40
Wollongong
I can't see this system delivering a mega dump and living up to the hype IMO - I see a warm, embedded front associated and with that will bring rain during various times as the system passes, but at this stage so early in the season a big wet dump of elephant snot is exactly what we need to form a good base
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass

Log in

or Log in using
Remove ads with a
Ski Pass