It’s hyped because it’s such a big anomaly, so fickle, constantly evolving. The risks are on the table.
Has every reason to be hyped IMO.
Predictions 7-12th Jun 2021 - Curtain Raiser
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Has every reason to be hyped IMO.
Temps heaps better on AXS-C, right up to Wednesday 10pm.
Positive sign for NSW.
So is the juice. Big numbers.
True, but whilst it may dump some decent amounts above 1600, there's going to be a lot of disappointment down low *queue river rapids running through the resorts especially down low in places like Thredbo village, but as you say it's still evolving so things could improve for the better.....very volatile system for sure
Maybe.
The snowfalls from the east last year had warmer atmospheres....
and they snowed to 800m...
*I had a re-read through last years threads and obs threads.
Until at least Thursday PM it will snow to the Thredbo Vallery floor for much of this.
I am fairly confident about that.
Kinda obvious that much of Thredbo sits below a long term natural snowline.
It's not a common occurrence for any snow bearing system to snow below the midstations at Thredbo. I'm not sure I would count this system as a disappointment based on the measure of whether it will rain in Thredbo. JMHO
A big dump above 1600m at this time of the year sets us up nicely for the top up next week. We just need nice cold days following the event, so what ever we get can be blasted by snow making
And to freeze solid that elephant snot base
Kinda obvious that much of Thredbo sits below a long term natural snowline.
It's not a common occurrence for any snow bearing system to snow below the midstations at Thredbo. I'm not sure I would count this system as a disappointment based on the measure of whether it will rain in Thredbo. JMHO
Most fronts bring snow to valley floor in Thredbo. It's the staying that's the problem. If its snowing to valley floor just tells you snow quality is pretty good.
Not sure what this brings.to thredbo village but IMO much more snow than rain assuming positioning of the low does not drift further north.
Our latest snow forecast from this system. What's unusual about this system is not the temperature but the amount of moisture - particularly for the Northern Tablelands of NSW. Further south, Canberra's snow forecast is tricky, it all depends on mid level moisture swinging around the surface low and moving over the cold surface in the wake of the front. A very similar setup brought heavy snow to Goulburn a few years ago. For the VIC alps its on a knife edge with the Polar/Tasman boundary forecast to sit directly over the region during maximum precip intensity.
I'm usually optimistic but not on this one, I just can't see it being the good side of the knife edge, especially Lake Mtn & Baw Baw, I don't think it's as close as you're suggesting but I hope I'm wrong. It's certainly an interesting system at least.Buller still going for some big totals Wed according to Weatherzone
Are there any glass half full aspects for Hotham/Falls on Thursday - other than two days of snow then rain/snow mix is better than zip, after essentially a zero base?
Perhaps EGippsland sucks up more of the precip, before hitting the Vic Alps? Or my preferred option, the L/ occluded front loses some puff on its second spin? Cheers (thanks for including Vic in forecasts folks!)
On Weatherzone; it seems there’s a chance of small top-ups > 1300m the following week, which might eventually ‘settle’ the soggy snowpack on the lower slopes? (hope-cast)
Big downgrades for Perisher on Weatherzone and Yr.No now. Boo!
Perisher Valley weather - local weather forecast
Perisher Valley weather, Snowy Mountains, NSW - 7-day weather forecast and current temperature and Canberra weather radarwww.weatherzone.com.au
Weather forecast for Perisher Village
Today's weather forecast, by the hour and long term. See the forecast as a table or graph.
www.yr.no
Car & Caravan nearly packed. Oh well, still a nice bit of white precipitation for opening weekend.
Are you talking Saturday predictions?Big downgrades for Perisher on Weatherzone and Yr.No now. Boo!
Perisher Valley weather - local weather forecast
Perisher Valley weather, Snowy Mountains, NSW - 7-day weather forecast and current temperature and Canberra weather radar
Weather forecast for Perisher Village
Today's weather forecast, by the hour and long term. See the forecast as a table or graph.
www.yr.no
Car & Caravan nearly packed. Oh well, still a nice bit of white precipitation for opening weekend.
Its too far away. Always a downgrade about now for the lead time.
if there's a silver lining it's in AXS-C hir res. It looks a little more favourable (still marginal but favourable) which is what Bom is seeing IMO.That forecast map for Friday PM looks amazing. Don't think I've ever seen so much of Australia being dominated by one system.
That surface chart is getting a bit old now.That forecast map for Friday PM looks amazing. Don't think I've ever seen so much of Australia being dominated by one system.
But.... at the same time, such a vacancy of pressure variance across the continent.
Very little nodal influence behind this system.
As most people don't get to see AXS-C ...I don't think they understand how good it is....Yeah Nah's midday update ramps up Wednesday night precip for Vicco. We got 12mm in round one, but it has another 45mm in it for us...
Really weird set up basically. Random wandering low pressure with no polar node to back it up, fortunately wanders across the continent with so high pressure system to block it.
Just created a GIF from meteye for the next few days it kinda helps with the levels
Thanks Nidecker, these are animations.Just created a GIF from meteye for the next few days it kinda helps with the levels
I note for the Victorian Alps, Met Eye, shows what’s predicting tomorrow afternoon & evening; a lifting of snow/freezing levels to the higher Mtns around Hotham and Falls but hanging in there through Thursday. I note these highest peaks are expected to receive snow into Friday morning.
The same map shows nothing (snow-wise) for the Buller/Howitt alps et al. After Wednesday evening.
So, an interesting/ nervous wait south of the border?
(Sorry, I don’t know how to link the animation, just a static shot)
That's because the 'worst' of it for Vic is wrapped before Thursday Evening.For interested Vics: this the Met Eye shot for 7pm Thursday evening:
Oh that animation is the result of 32 screenshots I was bored in my meeting
Part of the issue here is that Buller/Howitt are basically just summits, and the higher elevation peaks disappear below the resolution of the models. With Bogong High Plains covering many kms between Falls and Hotham enough of several cells in the models is at higher elevation for 'snow' outcome at ground level to appear on the MetEye chart.
For sure also with this system, freezing levels are actually higher further to south-west, but because of the terrain differences it's not easy to make apples-apples comparison using MetEye.
Behind paywall.
WZ Pro.
Model is only run to 36 hours out - hence why we've been waiting all week for 'em
There's a cancellation of the severe weather warning for the Snowy Mountains. Is that something to worry about with regard to snowfalls of this approaching system? I never saw the weather warning, I assume it was for damaging winds?
No.
The SWW was for "WINDY CONDITIONS ABOUT THE ALPINE PEAKS EASING."Behind paywall.
WZ Pro.
Model is only run to 36 hours out - hence why we've been waiting all week for 'em
Speaking of. 00z is out.
This is precip from basically 10am today until 10pm tomorrow.
That being 36 hours.
NSW MR - 60-80 mm.
This is saying we are likely to see even another upgrade on the BOM tonight? If im not mistaken, that is showing some areas at the peaks as much as 80-100mm no?Speaking of. 00z is out.
This is precip from basically 10am today until 10pm tomorrow.
That being 36 hours.
NSW MR - 60-80 mm.
Yeah 80-100 is the dark rusty red.
Running the timestamps ...the biggest portion of that occurs 4pm Wednesday to 10pm
Hotham & falls sitting with a FL of around 1500/1600m by Wed 10PM. Could be worse!
1700/1800m for Buller at same time.Want to see some divergence in models?
10pm Wednesday 500hpa.
In fairness the EC is 12z, GFS is 18z (WTF is it smoking?) and AXS-C is 00z
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