Predictions 7-12th Jun 2021 - Curtain Raiser

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POW Hungry

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I can't see this system delivering a mega dump and living up to the hype IMO - I see a warm, embedded front associated and with that will bring rain during various times as the system passes, but at this stage so early in the season a big wet dump of elephant snot is exactly what we need to form a good base
It’s hyped because it’s such a big anomaly, so fickle, constantly evolving. The risks are on the table.
Has every reason to be hyped IMO.
 

Donza

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Temps heaps better on AXS-C, right up to Wednesday 10pm.
Positive sign for NSW.
So is the juice. Big numbers.
axs xx.png
 

FourSquare04

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It’s hyped because it’s such a big anomaly, so fickle, constantly evolving. The risks are on the table.
Has every reason to be hyped IMO.

True, but whilst it may dump some decent amounts above 1600, there's going to be a lot of disappointment down low *queue river rapids running through the resorts especially down low in places like Thredbo village, but as you say it's still evolving so things could improve for the better.....very volatile system for sure
 

Donza

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True, but whilst it may dump some decent amounts above 1600, there's going to be a lot of disappointment down low *queue river rapids running through the resorts especially down low in places like Thredbo village, but as you say it's still evolving so things could improve for the better.....very volatile system for sure
Maybe.
The snowfalls from the east last year had warmer atmospheres....
and they snowed to 800m...
*I had a re-read through last years threads and obs threads.
 

POW Hungry

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True, but whilst it may dump some decent amounts above 1600, there's going to be a lot of disappointment down low *queue river rapids running through the resorts especially down low in places like Thredbo village, but as you say it's still evolving so things could improve for the better.....very volatile system for sure
Until at least Thursday PM it will snow to the Thredbo Vallery floor for much of this.
I am fairly confident about that.
 

Nidecker

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True, but whilst it may dump some decent amounts above 1600, there's going to be a lot of disappointment down low *queue river rapids running through the resorts especially down low in places like Thredbo village, but as you say it's still evolving so things could improve for the better.....very volatile system for sure
Kinda obvious that much of Thredbo sits below a long term natural snowline.
It's not a common occurrence for any snow bearing system to snow below the midstations at Thredbo. I'm not sure I would count this system as a disappointment based on the measure of whether it will rain in Thredbo. JMHO :confused:
 

bondibob

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Maybe.
The snowfalls from the east last year had warmer atmospheres....
and they snowed to 800m...
*I had a re-read through last years threads and obs threads.
A big dump above 1600m at this time of the year sets us up nicely for the top up next week. We just need nice cold days following the event, so what ever we get can be blasted by snow making
 

BlueHue

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Kinda obvious that much of Thredbo sits below a long term natural snowline.
It's not a common occurrence for any snow bearing system to snow below the midstations at Thredbo. I'm not sure I would count this system as a disappointment based on the measure of whether it will rain in Thredbo. JMHO :confused:

Most fronts bring snow to valley floor in Thredbo. It's the staying that's the problem. If its snowing to valley floor just tells you snow quality is pretty good.

Not sure what this brings.to thredbo village but IMO much more snow than rain assuming positioning of the low does not drift further north.
 

tomtankman

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196363214_10161042618748626_683692400071133400_n.jpg


Our latest snow forecast from this system. What's unusual about this system is not the temperature but the amount of moisture - particularly for the Northern Tablelands of NSW. Further south, Canberra's snow forecast is tricky, it all depends on mid level moisture swinging around the surface low and moving over the cold surface in the wake of the front. A very similar setup brought heavy snow to Goulburn a few years ago. For the VIC alps its on a knife edge with the Polar/Tasman boundary forecast to sit directly over the region during maximum precip intensity.
 

Dave Clark

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For the VIC alps its on a knife edge with the Polar/Tasman boundary forecast to sit directly over the region during maximum precip intensity.
I'm usually optimistic but not on this one, I just can't see it being the good side of the knife edge, especially Lake Mtn & Baw Baw, I don't think it's as close as you're suggesting but I hope I'm wrong. It's certainly an interesting system at least.
 

snowgum

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Until at least Thursday PM it will snow to the Thredbo Vallery floor for much of this.
I am fairly confident about that.

Are there any glass half full aspects for Hotham/Falls on Thursday - other than two days of snow then rain/snow mix is better than zip, after essentially a zero base?

Perhaps EGippsland sucks up more of the precip, before hitting the Vic Alps? Or my preferred option, the L/ occluded front loses some puff on its second spin? Cheers (thanks for including Vic in forecasts folks!)

On Weatherzone; it seems there’s a chance of small top-ups > 1300m the following week, which might eventually ‘settle’ the soggy snowpack on the lower slopes? (hope-cast)
 

Jacko4650

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Big downgrades for Perisher on Weatherzone and Yr.No now. Boo!


Car & Caravan nearly packed. Oh well, still a nice bit of white precipitation for opening weekend.
 

Ozgirl

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Big downgrades for Perisher on Weatherzone and Yr.No now. Boo!


Car & Caravan nearly packed. Oh well, still a nice bit of white precipitation for opening weekend.
Are you talking Saturday predictions?

Its too far away. Always a downgrade about now for the lead time.
 

POW Hungry

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I'm usually optimistic but not on this one, I just can't see it being the good side of the knife edge, especially Lake Mtn & Baw Baw, I don't think it's as close as you're suggesting but I hope I'm wrong. It's certainly an interesting system at least.
if there's a silver lining it's in AXS-C hir res. It looks a little more favourable (still marginal but favourable) which is what Bom is seeing IMO.
 

Donza

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if there's a silver lining it's in AXS-C hir res. It looks a little more favourable (still marginal but favourable) which is what Bom is seeing IMO.
As most people don't get to see AXS-C ...I don't think they understand how good it is....
 

Hermon

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Yeah Nah's midday update ramps up Wednesday night precip for Vicco. We got 12mm in round one, but it has another 45mm in it for us...
 
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snowgum

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Are there any glass half full aspects for Hotham/Falls on Thursday - other than two days of snow then rain/snow mix is better than zip, after essentially a zero base?

Perhaps EGippsland sucks up more of the precip, before hitting the Vic Alps? Or my preferred option, the L/ occluded front loses some puff on its second spin? Cheers (thanks for including Vic in forecasts folks!)

On Weatherzone; it seems there’s a chance of small top-ups > 1300m the following week, which might eventually ‘settle’ the soggy snowpack on the lower slopes? (hope-cast)
Just created a GIF from meteye for the next few days it kinda helps with the levels


Webp.net-gifmaker.gif
Thanks Nidecker, these are animations.

I note for the Victorian Alps, Met Eye, shows what’s predicting tomorrow afternoon & evening; a lifting of snow/freezing levels to the higher Mtns around Hotham and Falls but hanging in there through Thursday. I note these highest peaks are expected to receive snow into Friday morning.

The same map shows nothing (snow-wise) for the Buller/Howitt alps et al. After Wednesday evening.

So, an interesting/ nervous wait south of the border?

(Sorry, I don’t know how to link the animation, just a static shot)
 

Nidecker

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Thanks Nidecker, these are animations.

I note for the Victorian Alps, Met Eye, shows what’s predicting tomorrow afternoon & evening; a lifting of snow/freezing levels to the higher Mtns around Hotham and Falls but hanging in there through Thursday. I note these highest peaks are expected to receive snow into Friday morning.

The same map shows nothing (snow-wise) for the Buller/Howitt alps et al. After Wednesday evening.

So, an interesting/ nervous wait south of the border?

(Sorry, I don’t know how to link the animation, just a static shot)
Oh that animation is the result of 32 screenshots :) I was bored in my meeting
 

Phil Hart

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I note for the Victorian Alps, Met Eye, shows what’s predicting tomorrow afternoon & evening; a lifting of snow/freezing levels to the higher Mtns around Hotham and Falls but hanging in there through Thursday. I note these highest peaks are expected to receive snow into Friday morning.

The same map shows nothing (snow-wise) for the Buller/Howitt alps et al. After Wednesday evening.

Part of the issue here is that Buller/Howitt are basically just summits, and the higher elevation peaks disappear below the resolution of the models. With Bogong High Plains covering many kms between Falls and Hotham enough of several cells in the models is at higher elevation for 'snow' outcome at ground level to appear on the MetEye chart.

For sure also with this system, freezing levels are actually higher further to south-west, but because of the terrain differences it's not easy to make apples-apples comparison using MetEye.
 

stridercdh

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There's a cancellation of the severe weather warning for the Snowy Mountains. Is that something to worry about with regard to snowfalls of this approaching system? I never saw the weather warning, I assume it was for damaging winds?
 

Donza

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Behind paywall.
WZ Pro.
Model is only run to 36 hours out - hence why we've been waiting all week for 'em ;)
Ahhh thank you! I thought they were just using G/R zoomed in
Speaking of. 00z is out.
This is precip from basically 10am today until 10pm tomorrow.
That being 36 hours.
NSW MR - 60-80 mm.
axs C oo.png
 

warrie

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BoM 4 dayer posted early yesterday and taken as a lucky omen by some. Today it's still not out. We await with interest.
 
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