Predictions 7-12th Jun 2021 - Curtain Raiser

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Winterwolf

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Jun 2, 2019
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And also hot off the press, this just in as part of a media alert from the BoM in NSW:

  • Much of NSW and the ACT will experience a significant drop in temperatures over coming days, with some areas expected to be more than 10 degrees below average, and many areas expected to be more than five degrees below.
  • Significant snow falls are expected around the region over coming days, including areas of the Northern Tablelands, the Central Tablelands, and the Southern Ranges.
  • Snow levels are likely to drop to 800m and could even fall as low as 500m. This could include locations such as Oberon, Orange, Barrington Tops, the Blue Mountains, Guyra, Armidale and Glen Innes.
  • Strong and gusty winds are likely to begin in some areas from Tuesday
  • Snow and ice may lead to dangerous driving conditions
  • Damaging winds are expected over the NSW Alps and possibly on the South Coast, and northern ranges
  • Storms associated with the Cold Front are currently occuring in parts of western NSW and will continue tracking east through this afternoon and this evening
  • There is a risk of heavy rain in the south-east later in the week, and people in that area should watch for updates
  • While an East Coast Low is expected to the develop in coming days, it should be noted that most impacts are likely to occur on the Victorian side of the border. However, these types of weather systems can be quite dynamic and people in southern regions should continue to monitor conditions and warnings
 

Donza

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Apr 21, 2004
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And what is your interpretation of it?
If the models are struggling this much this close to the system.....
Its going to be a mark one eyeball system.

Though I feel the trend is improving for a NSW snow event from tomorrow arvo on.

Personally. AXS-C is the best precip model out there.
Though I tend to trust EC for uppers.

I think GFS is out there.... too many swings.
 

DidSurfNowSki

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Zing

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POW Hungry

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BOM Snowy Monaro update showing all the good signs with snow above 900m for Thursday in the district.
Looks like they're reading AXS-C right.

Thursday 10 June​

Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Snow falling above 900 metres in the morning lifting during the day. The chance of a thunderstorm in the southeast in the morning and afternoon. Heavy falls possible. Winds southeasterly 25 to 35 km/h turning southerly 20 to 30 km/h during the evening.
 
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POW Hungry

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Vic, you're welcome:

Wednesday 9 June​

Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of showers, most likely from the late morning, tending to rain in the afternoon and evening. Snow level around 700 metres, lifting above 1500 metres in the afternoon and evening. Possible hail in the morning. Heavy falls possible in the far south. Light winds becoming southeast to southwesterly 25 to 40 km/h in the morning then tending northeast to southeasterly 25 to 35 km/h in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between zero and 3 with daytime temperatures reaching between 6 and 12.

Thursday 10 June​

Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers. Snow falling initially above 800 metres, rising to 1300 in the evening. Winds east to southeasterly 20 to 30 km/h tending south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 1 and 5 with daytime temperatures reaching between 8 and 15.
 

BlueHue

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So any predictions on how I will go getting from Jindabyne to Cooma and back over the next couple days for work?

I'm thinking tomorrow morning will be fine before intensifying but chances are it will be ok the whole time with enough rain mixed in to prevent problematic road conditions, just some slippery slushies over Hill Top maybe. Seems the worst of the cold and low level snow may go further north?
 
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Reetro

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Looks like there's been a downgrade in total snowfall for Thursday per BOM's forecast of 3-8mm precip for Perisher.:confused:
I thought it was a typo, but WZ have followed, be it a higher rate. The event is stretching into next week.
So on Thursday the fat centre of the LOW is right over Perisher, hence the decline in fall. Lets see..
 
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doogasnow

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Interesting system this one.
expecting 100mm of rain up in the strezleckis over the coming 3 days and 110km winds to top it off!
What I’m surprised with is we are going for a low tonight of 2c with a heap of precipitation around the area at that time so maybe some sleety stuff around early Tommoz morning?
Also struck me that bom are going for an 1100m snow level for Thursday which I just can’t see? Seems to me like the coldest air will be over southern vic tonight and then warms some what.
 

robbo mcs

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Snow for Cooma bom going with 90-100% chance wed/thur at 1000m asl but precip has downgraded! http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/cooma.shtml
Screen Shot 2021-06-08 at 6.14.03 pm.png

If that BOM forecast for Cooma eventuates tomorrow, then the major roads could be closed. The BOM seem pretty confident it will be snow to relatively low altitudes, and with temps well above zero. Should make an interesting afternoon and evening for local residents and emergency services.
 

JeremyG

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Jan 7, 2015
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Can’t recall to many forecasts, forecasting heavy snow for Jindabyne. But where can you find a forecast with both heavy snow and “low-moderate” fire danger? I hate to think what it take to get a low fire danger.

76CDFF96-52BC-441D-94F2-9FD0D0475E0B.png
 

POW Hungry

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@POW_hungry Can i get a prediction total for NSW resorts for the total event, seems like your bang on everytime :D
NB. Def don't claim to be the shiz.

But I'll standby my update this AM
 
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Captain_Tsunami

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Jun 15, 2018
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yes take a piccy of that saturday 10am synoptic ,,, wow , just wow ,
Imagine drawing that , you'd go through a few black texta markers . Even Donald Trump would not need to post enhance that baby.

Imagine you're the BOM apprentice graphics person; you've been waiting 5 years in the wings for your chance to draw the synoptic chart, and you finally get your chance. I observe HE/SHE may have got bored and just ad-libbed a few extra weather symbols on that low to make it interesting
[MOD EDIT: Gender assumption]
 

doogasnow

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Looking at radar Baw Baw is screwed :( I have seen this before too many times.

Screenshot at Jun 08 19-43-56.png
Bank as much as they can whilst the snow level is at 1000m, then take a bit of a hit once it rises to 1700m( hopefully it dosent quiet rise that high)then hopefully another good gain once it’s back to 1100m ?
 
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